Popular (+60% of bets) NFL Week 7 bets at BetMGM

83% on Chiefs +1.5
78% on Rams -6.5
77% on Commanders -8
75% on Lions +1.5
67% on Eagles -3
65% on Patriots +5.5
64% on Bills -9.5
63% on Bengals -6

Broncos (-3) win 33-10.

Road favorites are now 10-0 ATS the last two weeks

Patriots vs Jaguars (-5.5) (@ London)
Patriots (1-5)
New England lost last five games, outscored 68-33 in first half.
Last two weeks, Patriots gave up 193-192 rushing yards.
Patriots are 30-44 since Tom Brady left town.
Team total: under 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2

NE is 7-19-1 ATS in last 27 games as an underdog.
Last 4 games, New England converted 14 of 53 third down plays.
Patriots were 0-4 against the spread in those games.
Patriots are 4-12 ATS in last 16 games coming off a loss.
Rookie QB Maye is 0-1 as an NFL starter.
AFC East underdogs are 1-7-1 ATS in non-divisional games.

Jaguars (1-5)
Jaguars are 1-5; they gained 497 yards (371 PY) in their one win.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 8-9 ATS coming off a loss.
Last five games, Jaguars were outscored 88-35 in first half.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3

Jacksonville has been outscored 42-9 in last 2:00 of each half.
Under Pederson, Jaguars are 8-11 ATS as a favorite.
QB Lawrence is 22-36 as an NFL starter.
Three of their last four games went over the total.
Jaguars ware 3-2 in their last five games in England.
AFC South favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.

New England won nine of last ten series games.
This is first time since 2006 Patriots are an underdog to Jacksonville.
Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight meetings.
Over is 3-1 in last four series games.

Titans @ Bills (-8.5)
Titans (1-4)
Titans scored 17 or fewer points in their losses; their win was 31-12.
Tennessee is minus-7 in turnovers, have had two punts blocked.
Titans were held under 250 TY in four of their five games.
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 2-1-2

Tennessee is 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.
Titans has trailed in only one of their five games at halftime.
Tennessee was 17-15-1 ATS LY in 33 games coming off a loss.
QB Levis is 4-10 as an NFL starter.
Tennessee has averaged 5.3/5.3/4.9/4.6/3.5 yards/pass attempt.

Bills (4-2)
Short week for Bills after their tense win over the Jets Monday.
Buffalo acquired WR Cooper from Cleveland on Monday.
Bills were outgained last three games, by 191-149-34 yards.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3

Buffalo is 8-10-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.
Bills are 25-19-1 ATS in last 45 games coming off a win.
QB Allen is 72-37 as NFL starter.
Last three games, Bills converted only 11 of 38 third down plays.
Last three games, Buffalo allowed 7.8/8.5/7.2 yards/pass attempt.
AFC East teams are 3-10-1 ATS in last 14 non-divisional games.

Buffalo won four of last six series games.
Texans lost 41-7/13-12 in last two visits to Buffalo.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.

Texans @ Packers (-2.5)
Texans (5-1)
Texans have four wins by 6 or fewer points.
Their only loss was 34-7 at 5-0 Minnesota.
Texans converted 19 of last 40 third down plays.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2

Texans are 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog
Houston is 6-9 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
2nd-year QB Stroud is 15-8 as an NFL starter.
Houston is 5-14-2 ATS in last 21 games vs NFC teams.
Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
AFC South underdogs are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.

Packers (4-2)
Green Bay’s two losses were 34-29/31-29.
Packers have 17 takeaways in five games (+9 turnovers)
Green Bay outscored last four foes 56-19 in second half.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2

Green Bay is 6-7-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
Green Bay is 17-12-1 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win.
Packers are 16-12-1 ATS last 29 games vs AFC teams.
Green Bay is 27-16-1 ATS in last 44 home games.
Under is 37-4 in their last 11 home games.
NFC North teams are 17-4 ATS in non-divisional games.

Green Bay won/covered its last three games vs Houston.
Teams split last two meetings played here; Texans’ win was in 2008.
Under is 4-1 in series games.

Eagles (-3) @ Giants
Eagles (3-2)
Four of Eagles’ five games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
Eagles are minus-6 in turnovers (8-2) this season.
Philly has led only one game at halftime (7-6 in week 2).
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2

Last four years, Philly is 2-9-1 ATS in NFC East road games.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 7-11-1 ATS as a road favorite.
QB Hurts is 39-22 as an NFL starter.
Under Sirianni, Eagles are 16-18-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
Under is 3-1 in their last four games.

Giants (2-4)
Giants are 0-2 at home (28-6 Vikings, 20-15 Cowboys, 17-7 Bengals)
Giants has one TD on 29 drives in their three home games.
Under is 5-1 in their games this season.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-2

Under Daboll, Giants are 8-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Daboll, Giants are 14-6-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Since 2018, Giants are 8-11 ATS in NFC East home games.
QB Jones is 25-41-1 as an NFL starter.
Opponents are only 24-70 on third down.

Eagles are 18-4 in last 22 games against the Giants.
Philly is 3-5 ATS (3-4 as a favorite) in last seven visits here.
Under is 7-3 in last ten series games.

Lions @ Vikings (-2.5)
Lions (4-1)
Lions scored 42-47 points in last two games (11 TDs on 20 drives).
Detroit has converted 26 of 54 third down plays.
Opponents have converted 16 of 54 third down plays.
Team total: under 3-2
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1

Under Campbell, Lions are 21-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Lions outscored last three opponents 72-23 in first half.
Last two years, Detroit was 5-1 ATS in NFC North road games.
Under Campbell, Detroit is 16-8 ATS in games coming off a win.
Last two weeks, Lions averaged 12.4/10.3 yards/pass attempt.
Lions have outscored opponents 24-6 in last 2:00 of each half.

Vikings (5-0)
Minnesota won/covered first five games, scoring 27.8 ppg.
Vikings have outscored opponents 86-24 in first half.
Last two years, Vikings were 1-5 ATS in NFC North home games
Team total: over 5-0
Opponents’ team total: under 4-1

QB Darnold is 26-35 as an NFL starter, 5-0 with Vikings.
Minnesota is 5-4 SU/4-4-1 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
Vikings are 9-1-1 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
Vikings are 15-10-3 ATS in last 28 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Minnesota has 13 takeaways in five games (+4 turnovers).

Detroit won four of last six meetings.
Lions lost five of last six visits to Minnesota (3-0 ATS last three).
Over is 7-1-1 in last nine series games.

Seahawks @ Falcons (-3)
Seahawks (3-3)
Seattle lost last three games, giving up 42-29-36 points.
QB’s they beat so far: Nix, Brissett, Thompson. Not great.
Seahawks turned ball over 8 times in last 4 games (minus-7 TO’s)
Team total: over 6-0
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1

QB Smith is 33-40 as an NFL starter, 21-21 with Seattle.
Seahawks are 16-10-1 ATS last 27 games as a road underdog.
Seahawks are 18-15 in last 33 games coming off a loss.
Last three games, Seattle was outscored 47-20 in first half.
Seattle is 14-16-3 ATS in last 33 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Over is 5-1 in their games this season.
NFC West underdogs are 1-7 ATS in non-divisional games.

Falcons (4-2)
Atlanta won its last three games, scoring 26-36-38 points.
Falcons were held to 10-17 points in their two losses.
Falcons’ last three games went over the total.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2-1

Atlanta is 5-15-1 ATS last 21 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 3-7 ATS last ten games coming off a win.
QB Cousins is 81-72-2 as an NFL starter.
Falcons are 5-13 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Falcon opponents are 38-79 on third down.
NFC South home teams are 2-6 ATS in non-divisional games.

Seahawks won four of last six series games.
Seattle is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in last six visits to Atlanta.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.

Bengals (-6.5) @ Browns
Bengals (2-4)
Cincy is 2-4, with both wins on road, by 10 points.
Bengals scored 25+ points in four of last five games.
Last two games, Bengals scored 15 TD’s on 39 drives.
Team total: over 4-2
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2-1

Bengals are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite.
QB Burrow is 36-28-1 as an NFL starter.
Cincinnati is 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Bengals are 6-8-1 ATS last 15 AFC North road games.

Browns (1-5)
Cleveland scored 17-18-15-16-13-16 points in its 1-5 start.
Browns are 15-78 on 3rd down so far, 10-16 on 4th down.
Browns have gained 230-297-217-152-215-244 yards.
Team total: under 6-0
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2

Browns are 5-2-1 ATS last eight games as a home underdog.
QB Watson is 38-36 as an NFL starter, 9-9 with Browns.
Cleveland is 12-4-1 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in last six AFC North games.
Browns have averaged 2.7/4.8/3.3/4.3/3.0/5.1 yards/pass attempt.

Browns are 9-3 SU in last 12 meetings.
Bengals are 0-6 SU/2-3-1 ATS in last six visits to Cleveland.
Over is 6-2-2 in last ten series games.

Dolphins @ Colts (-3.5)
Dolphins (2-3)
Miami allowed 17-10 points in its wins, 31-24-31 in losses.
Dolphins have already played four QB’s in their 2-3 start.
Huntley is 4-8 as an NFL starter.
Team total: under 5-0
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2

Last four games, Dolphins have three touchdowns on 43 drives.
Miami has been outscored 74-26 in first half of games.
Miami is 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
Last three games, Dolphins were 5-35 on 3rd down.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 11-10 ATS in games coming off a win.
AFC East road underdogs are 1-5 ATS in non-divisional games.

Colts (3-3)
All six Colts games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
Colts’ last three games were all decided by exactly 3 points.
Indy won three of its last four games (3-0-1 ATS)
Team total: over 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-3

Last three weeks, Colts converted 22-44 third down plays.
Indy is 12-11-1 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
Flacco is 114-89 as an NFL starter, 6-10 since 2020.
Under Steichen, Colts are 3-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Just like LY, Indy is better off with its backup QB than Richardson.
AFC South home favorites are 3-5 ATS in non-divisional games.

Colts won seven of last nine series games.
Dolphins are 5-3 SU/7-1 ATS in last eight visits to Indianapolis.
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.

Panthers @ Commanders (-7.5)
Panthers (1-5)
Carolina’s five losses are by 37-23-10-26-18 points.
Carolina is 2-9-1 ATS last 12 games as a road underdog.
Panthers gave up 20+ points in first half in five of six games.
Team total: under 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: over 5-1

Carolina is 4-13-2 ATS in last 19 games coming off a loss.
Last three weeks, Panthers allowed 7.5/9.9/7.5 yards/pass play.
Over is 5-1 in Carolina games this year.
Panthers opponents are 36-76 on third down.
Dalton is 84-85-2 as an NFL starter, 1-4 with Carolina.

Commanders (4-2)
Commanders won/covered four of their last five games.
Washington allowed 37-30 points in their two losses.
Last five games, Commanders scored 16 TD’s, kicked 16 FG’s on 43 drives.
Team total: over 5-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3

Commanders are 2-0 ATS as a favorite TY (5-14 from 2018-23).
Washington converted 33 of last 64 third down plays.
Commanders are 12-18-1 ATS in last 31 games coming off a loss.
Washington ran ball for 200+ yards in three of its four wins.
Over is 5-1 in Washington games this year.

Commanders won three of last four meetings.
Panthers won three of last four visits to Washington.
Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in last seven series games.

Raiders @ Rams (-7)
Raiders (2-4)
Raiders have 12 turnovers in six games (minus-10).
Las Vegas is 10-9-1 ATS in last 20 games following a loss.
Raiders’ two wins were by 3-4 points, losses by 12-14-16-19.
Team total: over 3-3
Opponents’ team total: over 4-2

Since 2019, Raiders are 19-13 ATS as a road underdog.
Raiders are 6-9-1 ATS in last 16 games vs NFC teams.
Opponents have converted only 22 of 73 third down plays.
QB O’Connell is 5-6 as an NFL starter.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.

Rams (1-4)
Rams have been outscored 68-32 in first half of games.
Even in their one win, they trailed 14-0 early on.
Under McVay, Rams are 4-3 SU/3-4 ATS coming off a bye.
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: over 3-2

Under McVay, Rams are 21-22 ATS as a home favorite.
Rams have allowed 24+ points in all five games.
LA is 7-10-2 ATS in its last 19 games vs AFC teams.
Rams outgained last two opponents, by 58-47 yards.
Three of Rams’ last four games went over the total.

Rams won three in row, six of last seven series games.
Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.

Chiefs @ 49ers (-1.5)
Chiefs (5-0)
Chiefs won their first four games, by 7-1-5-7-13 points.
Kansas City is 5-0 despite being minus-6 in turnovers.
Chiefs trailed at halftime in three of the five games.
Chiefs are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 4-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-2

Since 2017, Kansas City is 12-4 ATS as an underdog.
QB Mahomes is 94-25 as an NFL starter.
Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in last 12 regular season games vs NFC teams.
Chiefs have outscored opponents 59-28 in second half.
KC is 8-2 SU in its last ten post-bye games.
AFC West road underdogs are 4-1 ATS in non-divisional games.

49ers (3-3)
49ers have losses by 1-3-6 points, wins by 13-17-12 points.
49ers are 12-7 ATS last 19 games as a home favorite.
49ers scored 32-30-36 points in wins, 17-24-23 in losses.
49ers are 5-2 ATS in last seven games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Team total: under 3-3
Opponents’ team total: over 4-1-1

49ers outscored last four opponents 73-23 in first half.
49ers were outscored 65-41 in 2nd half of those four games.
QB Purdy is 24-8 as an NFL starter.
San Francisco is 5-7 ATS last 12 games vs AFC teams.
Over is 5-1 in their games this season.
NFC West home favorites are 3-2 ATS in non-divisional games.

Chiefs beat San Francisco 25-22 in Super Bowl last year.
Kansas City won six of last seven series games.
Chiefs lost three of last four visits to Santa Clara.
Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.

Jets (-1.5) @ Steelers
Jets (2-4)
Short week for Jets after Monday night’s loss to Buffalo
Jets lost last three games, by 1-6-3 points.
Jets scored 24-24 points in wins, 19-9-17-20 in losses.
Team total: over 3-2-1
Opponents’ team total: under 3-3

Jets are 2-6-1 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
Jets are 5-11-1 ATS in last 17 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Jets are 15-19 ATS last 34 games coming off a loss.
Jets traded for WR Adams Tuesday; will that help quickly?
Rodgers is 161-89-1 as an NFL starter, 3-4 with Jets.
AFC East teams are 3-11 ATS in non-divisional games.

Steelers (4-2)
Sounds like QB Wilson will be making his first Steelers start.
Wilson is 124-79-1 as an NFL starter, 17-27 since 2021.
Steelers are 12-5-2 ATS last 19 games as a home underdog.
Team total: under 4-2
Opponents’ team total: under 5-1

Steelers allowed 10-6-10-13 points in wins, 27-20 in losses.
Pittsburgh is 11-7-1 in its last 19 games coming off a win.
Pittsburgh was held to 226-293 TY in its last two games.
Steelers are 15-8-1 ATS in last 24 games with spread of 3 or less points.
Under is 9-5 in their last 14 home games.
NFC North teams are 12-9 ATS in non-divisional games.

Jets won three of last four meetings.
Jets are 2-6 SU/3-5 ATS in last eight visits to Pittsburgh
Under is 5-1 in last six series games.

Jared Goff is 21-9 (70%) ATS as an underdog with the Lions

Lions +1.5 at Vikings.

74% of bets are on the Lions to cover at BetMGM

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-3; 51)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

It took 11 days for Seattle to go from 3-0 to 3-3. Now the Seahawks get much-needed extra rest off Thursday Night Football. They also get a bit healthier, although CB Tariq Woolen will be out on Sunday. However, DT Byron Murphy looks set to return, and the Seattle defensive line looks in better shape. Plus, they recently acquired Roy Robertson-Harris from Jacksonville.

Seattle has also been struggling on the offensive line of late. However, the Falcons rank 27th in pass-rush win rate, and Geno Smith should have a cleaner pocket than he has in recent weeks.

Atlanta also struggles against the run (27th in early down rush success rate), so Kenneth Walker III should have a big game here.

The Falcons have been a bit fortunate early on in the season, going 3-1 in one-score games. This looks to be a good spot to sell Atlanta against a rested yet desperate Seattle team.

* Patrick Mahomes (KC) is 11-2 SU and 13-0 ATS (100%) as a road/neutral underdog. The average line was +2.9, Team average PF: 33.4
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+1.5 at SF)

NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 16-39 SU and 13-38-4 ATS (25.5%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): INDIANAPOLIS (-3 vs MIA)

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Mike Macdonald opened his head-coaching career 3-0, but the defensive wizard probably has had several sleepless nights in Seattle since his fast start. The Seahawks have dropped three in a row and their defense has been a problem, allowing 35.7 ppg during the skid. Macdonald will need to break his play-calling tendencies and blitz more often to put immobile Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins under pressure. On paper, this is not a great matchup for Seattle, which has a soft run defense, against Atlanta running backs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Still, the Falcons (4-2) feel a little fraudulent because they have wins by margins of one, two and six points — with the six-point win in overtime — and should have lost all three of those games. The road ‘dog desperately needs a win and will show up hungry. If Geno Smith (six touchdown passes, six interceptions) can avoid turnovers, the Seahawks should be in position to win in the fourth quarter

Post-bye week system #8:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 31-12 since 2021, 72.1%, +17.8 Units, 41.4% ROI, Grade 70)
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in: MIA-IND (o/u at 43.5), KC-SF (o/u at 47)

* DETROIT has won the last seven ATS vs. Minnesota
System Match: PLAY DETROIT (+2.5 at MIN)

* NEW ENGLAND is 11-21-1 ATS (34.4%) as an underdog since 2021
System Match: FADE NEW ENGLAND (+5.5 at JAX)

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 1-1/2 season, this majority group has been quite sharp, 59-42 ATS (58.4%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 44-33 (57.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TEN-BUF, PHI-NYG, KC-SF, NYJ-PIT

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in ’22 & ‘23 with a record of 86-123 (41.1%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same super majority percentage produced a slightly improved 87-104 (45.5%) record.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): SEA-ATL, HOU-GB, MIA-IND, CAR-WAS, LAC-ARI

DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a supermajority (>=64%) of the handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost big, going just 30-59 (33.7%) over the past two seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-GB, MIA-IND, LAC-ARI