Florida International @ Liberty (-17)
FIU (2-3, 1-0)
FIU gave up 16-10 points in wins, 31-38-45 in losses.
Panthers have a 45-42 loss to I-AA Monmouth.
FIU has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
FIU has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Jankins started 11 games last year.

FIU is 10-16 ATS last 26 games as road underdogs.
Under MacIntyre, FIU is 6-6 ATS as road underdogs.
In his career, MacIntyre is 29-24 ATS as a road dog.
Panthers are 5-11 ATS last 16 games coming off a win.
Under MacIntyre, FIU is 7-10 ATS in conference games.

Liberty (4-0, 2-0)
Liberty’s game LW was cancelled because of flooding at App State
Liberty is 3-0 vs I-A teams, winning by 6-18-11 points.
Flames have 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Flames have 52 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Salter has 18 career starts.

Liberty is 14-12 ATS last 26 games as home favorite.
Under Chadwell, Liberty is 6-4 ATS as home favorite.
Under Chadwell, Liberty is 7-4 ATS in conference games.
Flames are 25-15 ATS in last 40 games coming off a win.
Liberty hasn’t played in 17 days, because of the cancelled game.

Liberty won both meetings, 36-34/38-6
LY, Flames outgained FIU 520-211, running for 364 yards.

FIU Panthers at Liberty Flames (-17.5, 55)
Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)

We haven’t seen Liberty in a while, as the Flames were supposed to play Appalachian State on September 28, but the devastation of Hurricane Helene forced the cancellation of the game. Many felt like that was a crucial game for Liberty’s playoff hopes, which are now dashed because they simply won’t have the strength of schedule to be considered.

It has been a rather bland season for the Flames to this point. They’ve won one game by more than the spread in this one and that was a rather underwhelming 28-10 win over UTEP. The Flames are only 34th in yards per play on the season, a metric where they ranked fifth last year. And it isn’t like the degree of difficulty has been any higher with the schedule. Per Jeff Sagarin, they’ve played the 194th-ranked schedule in the country. There are 135 FBS teams.

FIU picked up a really nice win over Louisiana Tech last time out with a 17-10 decision that gave them a winning record in conference play. It is the first time since 2018 that they’ve had a winning conference play record at any point in the season.

Make no mistake, this is still a bad football team that ranks 110th in yards per play on offense and 60th on defense, with a negative yards per play differential. They lost to FCS Monmouth a couple games ago. Keyone Jenkins has done his best with a 9/4 TD/INT ratio and a 63% completion rate, but he’s found no success running and neither has most of the rest of the roster, as the Panthers have just 3.5 yards per tote.

Liberty is only 68th in Net EPA/play according to CFB Graphs, which doesn’t really incite a lot of confidence in their ability to win this one by margin. That being said, FIU is 104th in that metric and lost by 18 to a really bad Florida Atlantic team. Their 52-16 win over Central Michigan featured six takeaways. They have two in their other four games combined.

A well-rested Liberty team in the national spotlight should have the wherewithal to blow out FIU here.

Conference USA remains in the midweek college football spotlight on Wednesday with another standalone game. This one features another big favorite, as Jacksonville State welcomes New Mexico State to town for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ESPN2.

This is only the second FBS season for the Gamecocks, who are 11-7 thus far in CFB’s top division. The Aggies’ two-year bowl streak – the first since 1959-60 – is in severe jeopardy this year and they’re unlikely to win this one with about a three-touchdown head start on the spread.

New Mexico State Aggies at Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-20.5, 59)
7:30 p.m ET (ESPN2)

Jacksonville State QB Tyler Huff has racked up 1,073 yards through the air and another 445 on the ground. He is the team’s leading rusher with 7.1 yards per carry and he’s accounted for 10 total touchdowns. New Mexico State has gained 1,319 yards of offense total on the year.

The Aggies have a total of 11 offensive touchdowns this season, as they badly miss Diego Pavia, who is now at Vanderbilt, orchestrating upsets over the No. 1 team in the country. The drop-off is impossible to overstate, as Santino Marucci, Parker Awad, and Deuce Hogan have combined for a 40.9% completion rate and a 4/6 TD/INT ratio. Aggies quarterbacks have also been sacked 15 times thus far. Pavia was sacked 24 times altogether last season.

This has not been a good pass-blocking line for NMSU, but they do have a somewhat respectable 4.2 yards per carry, though Larenzo McMillan’s 84-yard run skews the data quite a bit. The Aggies won 23-16 over Southeast Missouri State to open the season and have gone 0-4 since, though they did give Liberty a game back in Week 2 and probably should have beaten the Flames in the 30-24 loss.

There is a huge rest advantage here for the underdogs, as Jacksonville State played last Friday and beat Kennesaw State by 39. The Aggies haven’t played since September 28 when they lost the annual Rio Grande Rivalry to New Mexico by a 50-40 count. That game featured 43 points in the fourth quarter, as the lack of depth for both teams came to the forefront. Aided by McMillan’s aforementioned 84-yard scamper, the Aggies had 8.1 yards per carry and 285 yards on the ground.

The Gamecocks do rank below the national average in yards per carry allowed, but Louisville had 36 runs for 233 yards and Coastal Carolina had 57 runs for 294 yards. Since then, they’ve played a whole lot better against the run and New Mexico State more closely mirrors Eastern Michigan, Southern Miss, and Kennesaw State on offense than the two teams that Jacksonville State lost to in Weeks 1 and 2.

Because of Huff, the Gamecocks have averaged over seven yards per play outside of that Louisville game and just had 7.4 yards per pop against Kennesaw State. The Aggies are definitely better than the Owls, but the question is how much.

This is a big number with just a few days off for Jacksonville State. They’re plenty capable of covering it, though. The run game should win the day, as New Mexico State has given up over 5.7 yards per carry and came into this week ranked 127th nationally.

New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State (-20.5)
New Mexico State (1-4, 0-2)
Aggies are 0-4 vs I-A teams, giving up 39.8 ppg.
Aggies have given up 277.3 rushing yards/game in I-A games.
NM State has 5 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
Aggies have 115 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB Marucci started a game at Wake Forest LY.

Aggies lost their two road games by a combined 79-11.
NM State is 6-7-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road dog.
Aggies are 15-9 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss (0-3 TY).
NM State has completed less than half its passes in all five games.
Aggies did run for 285 yards LW, in 50-40 loss to New Mexico.

Jacksonville State (2-3, 0-0)
Gamecocks gave up 55-49-37 points in their three losses.
Jax State ran for 273-384 yards in winning last two games.
Jax State has 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
Gamecocks have 67 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB Huff played last two years at I-AA Furman.

Under Rodriguez, Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Rodriguez, Gamecocks are 6-2 ATS in conference games.
Jax State was +8 in turnovers the last two games.
Under Rodriguez, Gamecocks are 10-7 ATS coming off a win.
Over is 4-1 in their games this season.

New Mexico State (+2.5) upset Jax State 20-17 in Las Cruces LY.
Aggies outgained Jax State 455-333 in that game.

Jacksonville St has moved from -19.5 to -20.5 vs. New Mexico State.

63% of money is on Jax State to cover at BetMGM

84% of money is on OVER 59.