3:30 p.m. ET: USC (-4.5, 44) at Michigan

USC (2-0, ranked 11th) just obliterated Utah State 48-0, easily covering as 31-point home favorites. On the other hand, Michigan (2-1, ranked 18th) just outlasted Arkansas State 28-18 but failed to cover as 22-point home favorites. This line opened with USC listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with USC, who has the better record and ranking. However, despite receiving 76% of spread bets we’ve seen USC fall from -6.5 to -4.5. Some books are even creeping down to -4. Essentially, all movement all liability has come down on Michigan plus the points. The Wolverines are receiving steady sharp reverse line movement, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Michigan has correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (44), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover the number. Wiseguys have hit the under as well, dropping the total from 46.5 to 44. The under is only receiving 30% of bets but 41% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy.

7:30 p.m. ET: Tennessee (-6.5, 57) at Oklahoma

Tennessee (3-0, ranked 6th) just destroyed Kent State 71-0, easily covering as 49.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Oklahoma (3-0, ranked 15th) just brushed aside Tulane 34-19, covering as 12.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 7-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover for the Volunteers and 79% of spread bets are rushing to the window to lay the points with Tennessee. This lopsided support initially drove Tennessee up from -7 to -7.5 early in the week. However, since that time we’ve seen nothing but sharp buyback on Oklahoma, dropping Tennessee from -7.5 to -6.5. This movement is especially notable because Oklahoma is incredibly unpopular, yet the line is moving back down toward the Sooners. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Oklahoma, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. Oklahoma is the top contrarian play of the day, receiving only 21% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime ABC game. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 58 to 57. The under is only receiving 27% of bets but 40% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The forecast calls for high 80s with partly cloudy skies and 10 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.

10:30 p.m. ET: Kansas State (-7, 49.5) at BYU

Kansas State (3-0, ranked 13th) just brushed aside Arizona 31-7, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Similarly, BYU (3-0) just took down Wyoming 34-14, covering as 9.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Kansas State listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public is laying the points with Kansas State due to their far better ranking. However, despite 60% of spread bets backing the Wildcats we’ve seen Kansas State fall from -7.5 to -7. Some shops have even touched -6.5 throughout the week. This line has never ticked up to Kansas State -8. Reading between the lines, all movement all liability is on BYU plus the points. BYU is only receiving 40% of spread bets but 51% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. BYU has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. The Cougars also offer notable contrarian value, receiving only 40% of spread bets in a heavily bet late night ESPN game. We could be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total has risen from 47.5 to 49.5. The over is receiving roughly 70% of bets and dollars, indicating a Pro and Joe agreement.