Regarding the Spurs, I feel the line has been bet out of whack due to the well known ability for the Heat to bounce back after a loss. I think the Spurs are in their heads (especially LBJ). Also it remains to be seen if Parker's injury is really that serious and I feel San Antonio has enough other weapons to overcome any issues.
Game 1 24 fouls (record for a Finals game)= Under
Game 2 31 fouls (previous record) = Under
Game 3 34 fouls = Over
I'm going with Over 186 for several reasons.
1. Not sure why the refs have swallowed their whistles but with LBJ's highly publicised zero FT's last game I think this game will be called much closer. There is no doubt James will try to penetrate and create contact.
2. Speculation is also out there that Mike Miller will start in Haslem's place. This will add another good outside shot and a side benefit is Miller is weak on defense.
3. This is the lowest total of the Series and I feel it is an overadjustment to the 1st two games going Under.