we have bonus matches this week, let's keep rolling !
GL

After a weekend defeat to Bayer Leverkusen, Borussia Monchengladbach will look for a quick return to winning against 17th-place Werder Bremen on Tuesday afternoon.

I wrote a few weeks ago that there would be spots down the stretch to bet on Bremen, and last week was exactly that spot. Playing against an overvalued Freiburg team, Bremen snuck out a 1-0 win despite a pretty mediocre performance. They lost 0.7-0.8 on expected goals (xG) but defended well to protect its 1-0 lead for the entire second half.

Meanwhile, Gladbach lost 3-1 to Leverkusen, putting a dent in its Champions League aspirations as they now sit fifth behind Leverkusen and RB Leipzig.

Expected goals is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Despite the 3-1 scoreline, Monchengladbach was pretty even with Leverkusen. With the game tied at one, Gladbach had a chance to grab a lead in the second half and had a legitimate penalty claim that could have put them ahead 2-1. The penalty wasn’t given, and Leverkusen earned a penalty of their own and scored on the counterattack in the next sequence.

Leverkusen finished more of its chances in what was a wide open game. I’m not concerned about Gladbach at all after that loss, and they still rank third in the league in xG difference per 90 at +0.58. That number is nearly a full goal better than Bremen, who sits 11th at -0.32 per game.

Because of Gladbach’s balanced scoring attack, including six players with five or more Bundesliga goals, they should be able to overwhelm the Bremen defense, which has been torn apart by most of the best German sides this season. In eight games against top-five sides this season, Bremen has conceded at least two goals in each one, including a 3-1 defeat to Gladbach in the reverse fixture.

While Bremen may be well overdue for some positive regression defensively, Gladbach has also underperformed its xG on offense scoring just 53 goals despite 60 xGF. The attacking duo of Alassane Pléa and Marcus Thuram should produce 2-3 goals for Gladbach, more than enough to see out the win.

Just two weeks ago, Leverkusen was -140 on the road at Bremen, and now Gladbach is in the same spot, yet Gladbach is still a better team than Leverkusen and now at a better price.

The market has already moved in favor of Monchengladbach since this opened up at -110. This could be the market starting to adjust to the lack of impact of home field advantage.

In the 18 matches since the Bundesliga returned, the home win percentage dropped from 43.3% before the layoff to 16.7% since.

Midweek soccer is back, and it kicks off with the two most prestigious clubs in Germany battling in “Der Klassiker,” German for The Classic.

Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund sit 1-2 on top of the Bundesliga table, with Dortmund just four points behind Bayern, who have won the league eight consecutive years. Playing at home, Dortmund will be desperate to get all three points and close the gap to one with just six matches to go after Tuesday.

Both teams enter Tuesday’s clash in excellent form, as Bayern have won eight straight and Dortmund have won six consecutive in the Bundesliga. But a look at the teams cumulative performance throughout the course of the season and the underlying numbers in those games suggest that the real gap between the two teams is larger than the four points indicate. By comparing their expected goals and team composition, Bayern has a significant edge almost everywhere on the pitch.

While Bayern leads the league at +1.5 xG per 90, Dortmund is fourth at +0.56. Even though both table toppers have performed about as expected defensively, BVB’s historic overperformance offensively has inflated both their lines and goal tallies for most of the last two months. Despite just 47.7 xGF this season, they’ve piled up 74 goals, which has meant they’ve overperformed their expected points by about seven this year (57 actual, 50.48 expected).

Dortmund’s defense has kept consecutive clean sheets since the return to play, but it faced off against two very weak attacks in Schalke and Wolfsburg. And while its offense scored six goals in two matches, they were again benefiting from great finishing, as xG indicated they really only generated about 2.2 goals worth of attacking chances.

Bayern put any concerns about its sharpness to rest after thrashing Frankfurt 5-2 on Saturday, conceding twice on corners but dominating the rest of the run of play. With Dortmund center back Mats Hummels in doubt for Der Klassiker, Dortmund’s defense will face one of its toughest tests of the season.

On the pitch, Bayern have completely dominated this rivalry of late. Each of the last two years, when Dortmund and Bayern met in the spring with the title still in doubt, Bayern romped its Klassiker rival. In March 2018, Bayern rolled 6-0, and in April 2019, the defending champions won 5-0. When the teams played earlier this season at Allianz Arena in Munich, Bayern won 4-0.

There may not be a single Dortmund player who would make it into the Bayern starting XI if the two teams were combined. Dortmund may be the trendy upset pick playing at home, but thus far, the home-field advantage appears to be severely limited.

While home teams won 43.3% of Bundesliga matches before the layoff this season, that number has dipped to 16.7% in the 18 matches since its return. It’s a small sample size, but it matches the expectation thus far. I’m getting a far superior Bayern team against an overvalued Dortmund side who won’t have crowd support in its biggest match of the season.

Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund

12:30 p.m. ET, FS1

Der Klassiker is a classic betting matchup between a trendy underdog, barking in off two impressive wins, and an elite team that is being overlooked by bettors who are looking to have a flutter on the adorable dog chasing after the runaway train that is Bayern Munich.

I admit I was skeptical of Bayern after the hiatus, questioning if the significant interruption would have an adverse effect on the seven-time defending champions. A less-than-convincing win over Union Berlin in their first match back didn’t exactly make me a believer, but Bayern looked a dominant force against Frankfurt on Saturday.

Now my skepticism lives with Borussia Dortmund. BVB continues to run hot, consistently posting crooked scorelines despite the expected goals models suggesting both matches should have been much closer. It’s unfair to call Dortmund’s wins lucky, but they can certainly be labeled flattering.

BVB will now make a huge jump in class, needing three points against a Bavarian Dynasty.

Even though their offense gets most of the praise, which makes sense since Die Roten lead the Bundesliga in goals and xGF, Bayern’s defense grades out as one of the best units in the league, trailing only RB Leipzig in goals against and ranking third in xGA.

Borussia Dortmund is still one of the best teams in the Bundesliga and their first two results after the break leap off the page, but their statistical profile paints them as a clear second choice against Bayern Munich. You don’t normally get discounts like this on one of the best teams in the world.

Bayer Leverkusen v Wolfsburg | Tuesday 26th May

Bayer Leverkusen strengthened their grip on a Champions League with another clinical and impressive win at the weekend, this time at Borussia Monchengladbach.

Kai Havertz once again bagged a double and his stock continues to rise. It’s 18 goals and assists in his last 15 games in all competitions. He’s flourished in this more advanced role while filling in for the injured Kevin Volland.

It’s now six games without defeat for Peter Bosz’s side and they’ve won five of them with the only points dropped away at RB Leipzig. But with a quick turnaround following Saturday’s win and a trip to Freiburg on Friday, then we could see some rotation in this one for Bayer.

Wolfsburg’s seven-game unbeaten run came to an end against Dortmund at the weekend in a game that saw them squander a couple of second-half chances and create just 0.54 Expected Goals (xG).

They did stifle and frustrate Dortmund for the large part with Erling Håland kept quiet, but when chasing the game, Lucien Favre’s men are ruthless in transition and that’s where Wolfsburg were caught out.

And Olive Glasner’s men may have similar struggles against this Leverkusen side. Julian Brandt pulled the strings for Dortmund and Kerem Demirbay might just be the man to do the same here for Leverkusen.

The Data
The weekend’s xG tallies tell their own stories with how these two sides will approach this game, and it will be somewhat different.

Wolfsburg 0.54xG v 0.87xG Borussia Dortmund (0-2)

Monchengladbach 2.51xG v 3.42xG Leverkusen (1-3)

This season, only RB Leipzig have restricted their opponents to a lower Expected Goals Against (xGA) than Wolfsburg, so Die Wolfe do limit their opposition and that’s reflected by Dortmund on Saturday.

This exciting Leverkusen side has one of the higher Expected Goals counts in the league at 53.7 5xG compared to the visitors, who are at 40.89 xG.

Die Werkself will knock the ball around and are likely to beat Wolfsburg in the transition once more. If the hosts get that first goal then that’ll open it up in their favour.

When it comes to the possession then that’s something that Bosz’s men will see plenty of. This season, they average 59.6% and that rises to 61.5% at home, while Wolfsburg’s does the opposite – it drops from an average of 49.2% to 47.6% on the road.

The colossal Edmond Tapsoba has been Leverkusen’s top passer in both games since the league’s return – 91 of 94 v Werder Bremen and 55 of 65 against Gladbach, so his passing lines could well be worth a look when the markets become available.

The betting angles
There are plenty of angles that I’ve looked into for this one and there are three bets that I feel I can make compelling cases for. Plus, they’re all priced evens and above at the time of writing.

In the two matches we’ve had since the return, Leverkusen have had 27 shots and 14 of those hitting the target. Havertz has grabbed the headlines but the low centre of gravity and quick feet of Kerem Demirbay make him a danger to this Wolfsburg defence. The 26-year-old scored with his only shot on target against Bremen and at the weekend, he had four shots, two of which on frame.

Going back through the data makes the evens (SkyBet) for him to have a shot on-target look rather tasty. He had two on target against Rangers in the Europa League, one at Leipzig, plus he was on the scoresheet away to Porto.

So, while much of the attention will be on Havertz, the pace of Moussa Diaby and the potential of Leon Bailey returning to the starting XI, then backing Demirbay looks a shrewd little play.

Now the next two bets coincide and it starts with looking at Wolfsburg team tackles. They aren’t afraid to roll their sleeves up and their season average is around 18 tackles per game, which ranks them joint-fourth.

But scrolling through the data on the Stats Zone app, it showed how they do rack them up. Against Dortmund, they had 26 tackles and 27 on their return to action at Augsburg. Before the break here are just some of the numbers across domestic and European competition: 34, 29, 28, 25, 36, 22 & 27.

Some huge numbers and when you consider the 36 were in a 4-0 win over Mainz, it just shows you how combative they are. The fact Sky Bet are evens on 20+ tackles looks too good given those figures. You can even get 6/1 on 28+ Wolfsburg tackles.

Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich | Tuesday 26th May 2020

Arguably the biggest game of the 2019/20 season takes place on Tuesday night at the Westfalenstadion as Borussia Dortmund welcome champions Bayern Munich for the much anticipated Der Klassiker.

Both are on excellent winning runs, Dortmund have won six straight games in the league and have been surprisingly solid at the back, conceding just the once in that time. On the other hand, Bayern have also won six on the bounce since their goalless draw with Leipzig back in February.

Bayern still sit four points ahead of Dortmund and with a healthy goal difference that could make up another point. They do have some potentially tricky fixtures to overcome if they’re to stay at the top, mind. As well as this game they still have Leverkusen, Gladbach and Wolfsburg to play which are no gimmes.

They’re also going to a stadium where no other team have reigned victorious this season, they’re also odds on to come back to Bavaria with all three points. That could well put a few punters off FC Hollywood, but if you delve into the underlying performance data you can see a chasm between the two that may justify the quotes about the visitors.

Bayern have created an Expected Goals (xG) figure of 81.5 over the course of the season whereas Dortmund have created a figure of 49.8. That being said the data on the defensive side of the pair is neck and neck.

The betting angles
The bookies are expecting a goal-laden game with the line set at a flat 3.5, I’m rarely inclined to take the overs when there is such a line but the averages in the Bundesliga and the percentage of these twos games that have broke that barrier, make it merited.

But then there’s the human aspect, the mental aspect if you will. This rarely gets factored into the pricing models of bookmakers and does present a chance to profit should you read the game correctly. Will Bayern be happy with a point here and keep their gap with Dortmund to four points? I’d probably say so and that makes the odds-on a no bet for me.

BVB love playing games that are open and although Bayern have been attacking under Hansi Flick I do feel they could be a bit more pragmatic in such a circumstance. Not letting the hosts have the space to run into it could be slightly more cagey game than what is anticipated with few games left till the end of the season.

Just taking a look at the games Bayern have played against the top five this season they’ve seen score ones of 1-1, 4-0, 1-2, 1-2, and 0-0. Their only win came against Dortmund in the reverse fixture, one that BVB hate historically. But as you can see, the three-goal barrier has only been smashed once.

Dortmund have also seen Under 3.5 Goals land in four of their last five. All things considered I’m happy to swerve the high lines and take the 10/11 (Bet365) on Under 3.5 Goals.

Red hot Hertha Berlin heads to Red Bull arena to take on third-place RB Leipzig on Wednesday afternoon. Hertha Berlin are currently in 11th place but they are only three points off a Europa League spot, so they have plenty to play for.

As for RB Leipzig, they are looking to solidify their holding on a Champions League spot for next season. Die Roten Bullen could draw even with Borussia Dortmund in second place with a win over Hertha Berlin on Wednesday.

RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig embarrassed Mainz, 5-0, last Sunday and look to have found their form. Timo Werner bagged his second hat trick versus Mainz this season and pulled within three goals of Robert Lewandowski for top scorer in the Bundesliga.

Die Roten Bullen has earned a +13.47 expected goal differential at home this season, though much of their success at home has come against the bottom of the table, going 7-0-0 with a 26-to-5 aggregate score against the bottom half of the Bundesliga.

Leipzig showed a little rust right after the break in a 1-1 draw with Freiburg, but when their attack gets going its almost impossible to stop.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Hertha Berlin
Die Alte Dame have arguably been the best team since the Bundesliga returned to action. With a 3-0 win at Hoffenheim and a 4-0 win in the Berlin Derby, they had the best goal differential since the break going into the midweek fixtures. However, those results are deceiving as the expected goal differential in those two games is only +0.66.

Home-field advantage has been muted since the return to action and that should help Hertha Berlin, who have not lost on the road since Nov. 24. The Old Lady has amassed 19 points and a -0.50 xG differential in 13 away matches this season.

Aside from their consistent road form, Hertha Berlin has been all over the map. They have wins over Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg and a draw with Bayern Munich, but they’ve struggled against the bottom of the table.

Previous Meeting
RB Leipzig won the reverse fixture, 4-2, at the Olympic Stadium in Berlin. Die Roten Bullen was dominant for most of the game, according to the expected goals report. Timo Werner showed his goal-scoring prowess bagging two goals for RB Leipzig.

Analysis
RB Leipzig are clearly the better side in this matchup and their 5-0 win over Mainz looked like a return to form for Die Roten Bullen.

Wednesday’s showdown between Schalke (eighth place, 37 points) and Fortuna Dusseldorf (16th place, 24 points) does not have the makings of a blockbuster. Not only are these two of the worst attacks in the Bundesliga, but neither Schalke nor Dusseldorf have collected a win since Germany’s top division resumed play.

Schalke has been particularly dreadful since the restart, losing both matches by a combined score of 7-0. The expected goals models suggest that the scorelines are a bit harsh on Schalke, but Die Knappen were deserved losers in both matches.

Dusseldorf hasn’t looked particularly sharp since resuming play, either. The Rheinlanders snoozed out a 0-0 draw against last-place Paderborn in their first match back and then were lucky to earn a 2-2 tie against Koln on Sunday.

In short, it’s been tough sledding for both of these teams since the Bundesliga resumed play

One look at the statistical profiles for these two teams and it’s easy to see why the total was set so low. Dusseldorf is tied with Werder Bremen for the fewest goals this season and no team has created fewer expected goals than Wednesday’s hosts. Schalke isn’t that far behind in either regard, as Die Knappen have scored the fifth-fewest goals and have generated the third-fewest xGF on the season.

With two colorless offenses meeting, a play on the under 2.5 seems to make a lot of sense, but I can’t trust Dusseldorf’s defense to get that bet to the window. Just as they do on offense, Dusseldorf rank dead last in the Bundesliga in expected goals against. Somehow, the team with the worst offense and the worst defense in the league is not in an automatic relegation spot. That’s quite impressive, to be honest.

It’s hard to trust Schalke considering their current nine-match winless streak, but Dusseldorf is the worst team in the Bundesliga, even if the standings tell us otherwise. Home-field advantage has been severely muted since the Bundesliga has started back up so I see no reason why the odds should be this tight

Union Berlin v Mainz | Wednesday 27th May 2020,

Two sides battling to beat the drop meet on Wednesday night, as Union Berlin host Mainz with both teams knowing a win would give their survival hopes a massive boost.

Union Berlin will be looking for a response after a disappointing derby defeat to Hertha Berlin, where a second half implosion saw Urs Fischer’s side crumble to a 4-0 loss. Goals have been an issue since returning from the break for Union, but coming up against one of the poorer Bundesliga defences in Mainz, they will be confident of ending a dismal run of form in front of goal.

Mainz are fresh from a 5-0 thumping at home to RB Leipzig, which took the aggregate score over the high-flyers to a worrying 13-0 across the season, and the ease that Julian Nagglesmann’s side ripped open the strugglers will be a massive concern for Achim Beierlorzer.

Conceding 60 goals this season, the underlying data behind Mainz is particularly worrying, with an Expected Goals against (xGa) of 54.61, whilst the opposition will on average attempt 15.4 shots per-game.

Particularly vulnerable to the counter attack, a theme from their defeat to Leipzig and draw to Koln was the ease that sounds attacking at pace could open up the Mainz defence, with the defence often left exposed by the attacking nature of the full backs and a lack of tracking back from attackers.

Whether Union Berlin can threaten on the counter awaits to be seen, and their lack of tempo in the build up play against Hertha was an issue. They could welcome back Yunus Malli in attack, whilst Sebastian Andersson looks to be returning to full fitness after struggling against Hertha, and his return to form would boost Union’s chances further.

Andersson, Union's top scorer, was left isolated against Hertha’s centre halves, and the return of Malli, coupled with improvements from Marius Bulter, would help alleviate these problems, and help break down the open defence.

Union’s reliance on set-pieces has been a theme this season, and in the reverse fixture that Union won 3-2, two of Union’s goal came from corners, and they’ll be buoyed by the fact that Mainz have conceded 13 goals from these situations. Andersson will be a massive threat from dead ball scenarios, whilst centre half Marvin Friedrich is another, averaging 0.71 shots per-90, all from set-piece situations.

Despite their worries at the back, Mainz do possess the ability to cause problems going forward, in particular with Robin Quaison leading the line up front. The Swede possesses the ability to cause the Union problems, and their own issues against the counter, as well as attackers running at pace, was apparent in the game against Hertha, where Dodi Lukabakio and Matheus Cunha caused the backline all sorts of problems.

Quaison will be confident of causing similar problems, whilst the roles of Ridie Baku and Levin Oztunali will be crucial in Mainz’s chances against a side that lacks the pace to deal with these tricky dribblers

In attack, Mainz’s Expected Goals (xG) still sits at a promising 35.89, and Union’s own xGa is a worrying 46.84, and when combining these factors and those discussed above, the game immediately stands out for goals.

Priced at 1/1 (Bet365), Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score takes appeal, particularly with both sides desperate for a result but defensively struggling, so attack may be the best form of defence for these sides.

Fortuna Dusseldorf v Schalke | Wednesday 27th May 2020,

Fortuna Dusseldorf host out-of-form Schalke in perhaps one of the more unappealing games of the midweek Bundesliga calendar, but it doesn’t mean there’s no value to be found.

Dusseldorf manager Uwe Rosler would have been cursing his side’s defending in the final few minutes of the weekend draw with Koln, throwing away two crucial points in their battle to avoid relegation and against their local rivals no less. Koln poured men forward and went even more direct than they normally do, something Fortunen couldn’t handle.

Defending from crosses was the team’s biggest downfall, conceding both goals and a penalty from failing to deal with balls in the box although at the other end of the pitch, there were encouraging signs of Rosler’s tactical tweaks taking good effect.

Pressing high up the pitch, starting from the front three of Skrzybski, Karaman and Thommy, forced mistakes from Koln and led to Fortuna’s first goal and their best other chance in the first half. The latter in particular had an excellent game, registering 5 shots and scoring what he and his teammates must have thought was the match-clinching goal.

After making four changes to his starting line-up, more than any other team from matchday 26 and 27, I’m not expecting Rosler to tinker too much after an encouraging performance but he’s likely to bring defender Kaan Ayhan back in to the team following his suspension.

Schalke on the other hand look in a sorry state after two abysmal performances since the restart, despite sitting eighth in the table. Boss David Wagner has blamed psychological issues on his players’ current form but it also has to be recognised how little quality there is in some quarters of the squad.

A lack of creativity and final third threat (now scored just two goals in nine) has put pressure on the defence who are, as a result, making individual errors and a poor showing in the derby defeat to Dortmund was trumped by a shameful showing in the Augsburg loss. Schalke players will have been thanking their lucky stars that there were no fans in the VELTINS-Arena to show their displeasure as it would’ve been rather ugly.

It may be a little early to draw too many conclusions but you can’t help but think of Huddersfield (the side Wagner used to manage) in their second Premier League campaign when you watch Die Knappen at the moment. Lacking identity, goals and far too easily to play against.

It’s little surprise the team’s goal return is so bad currently when you take a gander at their expected goal rate – 1.12 xG per 90 minutes is a sorry figure and to compound the Gelsenkirchen club’s misery, top scorer Suat Serdar went off injured in the 3-0 weekend hammering and looks set for a spell on the sidelines.

The betting angles
For all these reasons, I’m happy to back Dusseldorf +0 on the Asian Handicap line which is 24/25 with Bet365. It’s just a shade short of even money and is essentially the same as backing the home team on the draw no bet market so a win will bring home the money but gives insurance if the game ends in a draw.

One man who will draw encouragement though is the versatile Daniel Caliguiri who is currently featuring on the right-wing for the Royal Blues, having previously played at right-back and centre-midfield in 2019/20. The German has played nearly 300 Bundesliga games in his career now and he will need to use that experience wisely to help guide his teammates through a tough spell to come.

DRAWS are a nice thing to consider, Tuesday 2-2 +4.04
GL

1st match hits DRAW +505

well DRAWS ended up 6-4 +12.42 for the 2 days
GL