let's get back at it folks !
GL

Halmstads v Varbergs | Friday 14th September 2018, 18:00
Halmstads have seen 6/10 (60%) of their home league games feature winning Both Teams To Score bets, with games averaging 2.5 goals per-game.

Varbergs have seen 7/10 (70%) of their away league games feature winning Both Teams To Score bets, with games averaging 3.4 goals per-game.

Collectively, these two clubs have paid out in the Both Teams To Score column in 13/20 (65%) of their respective home/away matches, a percentage success rate that would imply odds around 8/15.

We can back Both Teams To Score

374300494
SOC Figueirense FC DRAW +198

glta

Put these in today:

Tottenham/Liverpool O2.5,3 -118
Watford/Man U BTTS -125
Bournemouth/Leicester City O2.5 -115
Huddersfield/Crystal Palace U2,2.5 -128
Man City/Fulham BTTS -105
Newcastle/Arsenal BTTS -165

374350381
SOC Tottenham Hotspur +0.25 -119

374350382
SOC Arsenal FC -112

374350383
SOC Leicester v Bournemouth Over 2.5 -116

374350384
SOC Crystal v Huddersfield Over 2 -131

374350385
SOC Crystal Palace +143

374350386
SOC Chelsea FC -2-111

Bristol City v Sheffield United | Saturday 15thSeptember 2018, 15:00
Bristol City have recovered from a winless first three Championship games to scoop maximum points from their most recent three fixtures to leave the Robins perched inside the top-six.

Lee Johnson’s side survived a few first-half scares against Blackburn in their last encounter ahead the international break before putting the pedal to the mettle and running out impressive 4-1 winners. The returning Famara Diedhiou came off the bench to grab a goal as City fired in 19 attempts, 11 of which were on-target.

The Robins are back at Ashton Gate on Saturday and I’m backing another goal-friendly game when Sheffield United pitch up with Over 2.5 Goals appealing at 10/11 with Betfred.

The Blades tonked Aston Villa 4-1 at Bramall Lane in their most recent outing to move into third following their own slow start. Chris Wilder’s charges have won four on the spin having opened their account with back-to-back defeats, and United are packing plenty of punch in the final-third.

Only West Brom (15) and Leeds (14) have scored more often than the visitors (12) and with the pair collectively averaging 3.08 goals per-game this season, there’s plenty of reason to believe an open and entertaining contest awaits.

The duo have seen an average of 2.62 Expected Goals from open play scored when their record are stitched together, while firing just two blanks between them in 2018/19. Meanwhile, since the start of last term, City and United have seen Over 2.5 Goals bank in 31/52 (60%) of their respective home/away matches, with Both Teams To Score copping in 30/52 (58%) showdowns.

This meeting pits together two of the top seven teams in the Championship for shots, on-target attempts and efforts from inside the penalty area.

Rochdale v Gillingham | Saturday 15thSeptember 2018, 15:00
Last weekend 10 of the 12 League One matches delivered for Both Teams To Score backers taking the season tally to a chunky 62% and another goal-filled Saturday could be in store from the third-tier, particularly at Spotland when Gillingham travel to Rochdale.

Dale played out an absorbing 3-3 draw at S****horpe seven days ago, twice fighting back from two goals down to pick up a precious point. Keith Hill’s troops won the shot count 19-9 and landed eight efforts on-target and could easily have claimed maximum points had Aaron Wilbraham finished a great late opening.

Nevertheless, Rochdale are cemented in mid-table after a reasonable opening to the 2018/19 campaign that’s been full of goalmouth action. The hosts have returned Over 2.5 Goals profit in six of their seven games with Both Teams To Score landing on five occasions as matches have averaged 3.71 goals per-game.

Only second-bottom Oxford (17) have leaked more than Dale (16) but only Barnsley have denied Hill’s men from scoring. What’s more, the hosts’ seven showdowns thus far have produced a chunky 1.83 Expected Goals from open play average, highlighting the open nature to Rochdale’s games thus far.

Opponents Gillingham are without a clean sheet since the opening weekend and the Kent club are winless since kicking off their campaign with back-to-back victories. Steve Lovell’s side have only failed to net once and only seven sides have fired in more shots at goal so there’s still plenty to be positive about.

But like their hosts, the Gills are struggling to keep the wolves from the door. The guests are facing almost 11 attempts from inside their own penalty box per-game and their 0.93 xG conceded from open play per-game is the seventh worst return to League One at this stage.

So two leaky defences overseen by management that prefer their teams to play on the front foot should result in another high-scoring duel. My preferred poison here is to punt the Both Teams To Score market at 4/5 with Bet365.

Under Lovell, Gillingham have delivered BTTS profits in 13/20 (65%) away days as they’ve scored in 17 of those encounters and recorded only four shutouts.

Swindon v Bury | Saturday 15th September 2018, 15:00
Staying on the goals theme, Saturday’s match-up between Swindon and Bury at the County Ground should produce another watchable encounter as two of League Two’s highest scoring sides lock horns.

Both Swindon and Bury are averaging 1.71 goals per-game after seven rounds of action, scoring in all bar one of their collective 14 fixtures. However, the pair have recorded just three clean sheets between them, leading to their collective contests averaging a massive 3.22 goals per-game.

With that in mind, I’m very keen to explore the 23/25 (Marathon) on Over 2.5 Goals. It’s a selection that’s already proven a successful formula in 8/14 (57%) of their combined outings, while Over 3.5 Goals was crossed off in half of those 14 fourth-tier matches and Both Teams To Score banking in 10 (71%).

Both clubs are towards the upper echelons across all the major performance data metrics – shots, shots on-target, shots attempted from within the penalty box – and no League Two teams comes close to Swindon’s 2.80 match average for Expected Goals from open play, suggesting a helter-skelter duel could ensue.

Big movement on Manchester City (vs. Fulham)

Moneyline: -760 to -940

Goal Line: -2.5 (o-103) to -2.5 (o-118)

The Premier League returns from the international break this weekend, with one of the title contenders – Liverpool visiting another title contender – Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley. The League is notorious for being a difficult league title to defend. Manchester City this season have already made their task a little bit harder by falling behind with a draw against Wolves. Tottenham have the chance to catch up with their Red rivals if they beat them, while Liverpool can put distance between them and Spurs if they win on Saturday.

Tottenham were enjoying a very good start to the season in their first three games when they were jolted back to reality by Watford at Vicarage Road last game week. It is not often that Spurs’ attack finds itself blunted so well that even their one goal from that game was an own goal from Watford’s Doucoure. However, prior to that loss, Spurs have been brilliant. They have already beaten a top-six side in Manchester United and Pochettino will hope that the team that emerges from the tunnel on Saturday lunchtime is the one that outplayed United at Old Trafford and not the one that could not breach Watford’s defence.

Liverpool on the other hand, are at the top of the league with four wins in four matches. But Spurs are their first game against a Top Six opponent. This fixture is also the start of a gruelling period for The Reds as they face Spurs, Chelsea (twice), PSG, Napoli and Manchester City in six of their next seven fixtures. Jurgen Klopp will be relieved that his team enters this period in a position of strength, as Liverpool lead in almost all positive stats in the league – from the league table itself to xG to packing rate. If they come out of these seven fixtures, especially the Premier League ones, without dropping too many points, then they will be genuinely considered title contenders. For that to happen, they have to start the period well and that means trying to win or at least draw in a fixture where they were soundly beaten last season.

INTERESTING STATS
Tottenham have won only one of their last 11 Premier League games against Liverpool (D4 L6). That one win was the emphatic 4-1 victory last season in this fixture. Despite their seeming dominance, however, Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp are yet to beat their hosts (D2 L1).
This is a goal-rich fixture. Liverpool and Tottenham have scored 149 goals in all their Premier League meetings, which is just two less than the most – 151 goals in all Premier League matches between Arsenal and Everton. This is, however, the most penalty-rich fixture – 22 penalties have been awarded in all Premier League matches between The Reds and Spurs.
Liverpool have won their opening four games of a league season for the first time since 1990-91. There have been only two top-flight seasons in their history where they have won the opening five games – 1990-91 and 1978-79. If Liverpool win on Saturday, they would have won six in a row, their first such streak since the 11-win run in 2013-14.
Tottenham could not keep their perfect start going as they lost to Watford in game week four. They have not suffered consecutive Premier League losses since the final two games of the 2015-16 season.
KEY MEN
HARRY KANE
Harry Kane loves to play against Liverpool. In his last seven appearances against The Reds, he has contributed seven goals (5 goals, 2 assists). Of those five goals he has scored, four have been scored in the last two games. Generally, it is believed that Harry Kane’s scoring abilities are jinxed in August. But, he has broken that jinx this season, and anyway, August is over. Kane is ninth in the League in terms of xG and has already scored 2 and assisted one goal. With the in-form Moura to partner Kane at the top, Liverpool’s defence is likely going to be stretched, making the English striker that much more dangerous.
MOHAMED SALAH
Mohamed Salah was the person that got Kane to claim feather-light touches as goals last season. Such was the competition for the Golden Boot last season. This season too, the rivalry is well and alive. Mohamed Salah has also contributed 3 goals in his four appearances (2 goals, 1 assist). Salah also leads the League in terms of xG (3.11) – one full expected goal more than Kane. His xG90 + xA90 amounts to 1.27, i.e. in current form it is more than 100% sure that Salah will contribute at least one goal if he plays 90 minutes. Furthermore, he loves to play against Spurs. He scored three goals in two games against the London side last season.

TEAM NEWS
For Spurs, Pochettino could bring in Eric Dier in the midfield at the expense of Moussa Dembele. The latter was on the bench during the loss at Watford. Hugo Lloris, Dele Alli, Moussa Sissoko and Erik Lamela will be assessed ahead of Saturday’s match. Spurs will be hoping that the injury that Dele Alli suffered during the break is minor and that he will be available on Saturday. Pochettino also has the services of Son Heung-min at his disposal as the Korean has returned from Asia Cup duty.

For Liverpool, international breaks are always dreary periods that the fans and the club somehow try to get over with. Two of their players suffered injuries during this break as well – Adam Lallana and Simon Mignolet, both pulled out of their international squads. But, given that Klopp has made only one starting XI change in four games, it is unlikely that either of these two will be missed. Other absentees for The Reds are long-term injured players including Oxlade-Chamberlain and Dejan Lovren.

VERDICT
As mentioned earlier, this fixture is traditionally a goal-rich fixture. It has also been drawn a lot lately. Saturday’s game promises to be a spectacle of attacking football, with two of the most attacking sides in the league going head to head. But, it is also highly likely that both of them will be an equal match for each other and cancel each other out.

Tottenham Hotspur 2 – 2 Liverpool

Chelsea will be looking to maintain their 100% record in the Premier League under Maurizio Sarri on Saturday as they welcome Cardiff City to Stamford Bridge. This will be a game that they will be expecting to win, as the visitors are one of the favourites for relegation. However, it won’t be a walk in the park for the Blues, as Neil Warnock’s men can pose a stern test, as Arsenal would attest to.

It is going to be a season of transition at Stamford Bridge, as Sarri will need time to coach the team to effectively carry out his tactical plan. There have been encouraging signs during the opening weeks of the season, but there is a lot more to come from Chelsea. The return of Eden Hazard has been a major positive. Meanwhile, Marcos Alonso has been a constant threat down the left-hand side of the pitch. They look to be on track to challenge for a top four finish and if they achieve that, it will be considered a successful campaign. The bookies betting odds calculator will have West London club finishing in the top four but there will be plenty of work to do.

Cardiff were written off before a ball was kicked as relegation fodder. Neil Warnock has yet to have a successful season in the Premier League, but this could be his best chance of one, as the Bluebirds have fully bought into their manager’s style. It won’t always be pretty to watch, but it can be effective. They have taken two points from their opening four matches and they came close to earning a positive result against Arsenal. On Saturday, they will play like they have nothing to lose and that is dangerous for Chelsea.

TEAM NEWS
Cesc Fabregas is the only injury doubt for Chelsea. The midfielder will face a late fitness test as he recovers from a knee injury. It is likely that the Blues will field an unchanged team, despite the international break.
Josh Murphy and Aron Gunnarsson are both in contention for a return to the squad as they recover from various injuries. However, Nathaniel Mendez-Laing will be out of action for the foreseeable future.
INTERESTING STATS
Pedro has already scored three Premier League goals in four matches this season. This is more than he managed in the previous 23 in the competition.

Cardiff were clinical against Arsenal as they scored two of their three shots on target. These goals were their first of the Premier League season.

VERDICT
Chelsea have to be considered firm favourites for this match considering their 100% record and home advantage. It will be another test of attrition as they will face a team looking to sit deep and soak in pressure. There will be a lot of the ball for the likes of Willian, Pedro and Hazard, who are all capable of having a meaningful impact on this match. For Cardiff, it will be about battling hard and trying to stay in the game as long as possible, with set pieces being their main weapon. A home win is likely, but it might not be as convincing as many are expecting.

Chelsea 2-0 Cardiff City

Tottenham v Liverpool | Saturday 15th September 2018, 12:30 | Sky Sports
Dubbed title-contenders following their 3-0 victory at Old Trafford, Spurs were humbled less than seven-days later by Watford at Vicarage Road.

Consistent Spurs
I’m wary of reading too much into either result and am instead happy to trust their performance over the last three seasons. Since the start of the 2015/16 campaign, Tottenham have achieved finishes of 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, reached consecutive FA Cup semi-finals and topped a Champions League group involving Borussia Dortmund and eventual winners Real Madrid.

Spurs went unbeaten in their final season at White Hart Lane and there were rightfully question marks posed at their move to Wembley. However, Mauricio Pochettino’s men has lost just two Premier League games at their temporary home, winning 14 and drawing four.

They actually made a sluggish start, failing to win their opening three. Their Premier League home record since then reads W15-D2-L1.

Spurs host Liverpool this Saturday, who they beat 4-1 at home before drawing 2-2 away. Admittedly, I expect Liverpool to finish above Spurs come May as they rival Manchester City, but I also don’t think Spurs will be too far behind. The North London-based outfit are comfortably in the divisions three most consistent sides, as is evident in their aforementioned finishes.

Liverpool look short
Liverpool have started the season with maximum points but are definitely stronger at Anfield than they are on the road. 2-0 and 2-1 victories away at Crystal Palace and Leicester look impressive on the surface but they weren’t at their best in either.

I’m tempted by Spurs at 21/10 – the 33% implied chance seems a tad disrespectful. The absences of Hugo Lloris and Dele Alli are no doubt a blow, but Spurs were without both Ben Davies and Danny Rose, and used Kieran Trippier at left wing-back when winning this fixture 4-1 last campaign.

I certainly can’t be backing Liverpool at as short as 13/10 and so I’ll be turning at the 5/4 about Spurs from scratch on the Asian Handicap. This sees our stake void if the game ends level, with a winner paid should Pochettino’s side grab all three points.

Man City v Fulham | Saturday 15th September 2018, 15:00
Unsurprisingly, Manchester City are considered near certainties to win this game but I am confident that Fulham will put up a greater fight than is perhaps expected. City are rightly favourites for the Premier League title and I would certainly struggle to put forward a case for Fulham to take anything from the game but there is plenty of evidence that Fulham will find the net.

City have conceded in each of their last three matches while Fulham have scored seven goals in their four games since they returned to the Premier League. In Alexsandar Mitrovic they have a striker that can cause The Citizens many problems and all the stats suggest that the 6/4 Betway are offering on Manchester City to win and Both Teams To Score is simply too big.

City have played 40 Premier League games at home since Pep Guardiola took the helm and have won whilst conceding in 19 of these matches. If you look at games against sides outside of ‘The Big Six’ then this record reads 16/30, suggesting that Even money would be value! So far this season they have allowed Huddersfield and Newcastle to breach their backline and I think it is fair to say that Fulham possess a greater attacking threat than either of those sides.

Analysing City’s home record under Pep also enabled me to uncover a couple of decent correct score prices. Incredibly, The Citizens have won either 2-1 or 3-1 in 15 of their 40 home games under the Catalan. Against sides from seventh down, this statistic becomes 13 out of 30. Given that a 2-1 home victory is a best price of 10/1 with Bet365 and 3-1 is 11/1 with the same firm, you don’t have to be maths genius to realise that those prices are a spot of value.

Bournemouth v Leicester | Saturday 15th September 2018, 15:00
Two of the league entertainers face off at Dean Court and I expect goals to be high on the agenda. Since the start of last season, 51 of their 82 combined league games have seen both sides find the net. However, while I feel that both Bournemouth and Leicester will score, a price of 7/10 is a little prohibitive.

I do want to get on goals in some way though and am conscious of the fact that 11 of Bournemouth’s last 16 domestic matches have seen a goal scored after the 85th minute. The Cherries have become the kings of the comeback and in a game featuring two sides who are better going forward than they are defensively and one that is unlikely to be settled early, I like the look of the 103/100 with MarathonBet on a goal after the 74th minute.

Under Claude Puel, 17 of Leicester’s 33 league games would have seen this bet emerge in profit, while going back to the start of last season, the same is the case for 24 of Bournemouth’s last 42 encounters. A late goal is on the cards here and I also wouldn’t put you off putting a few pennies on a 2-1 victory for either side.

Queen of the South v Ross County | Saturday 15th September 2018, 15:00
My selection this Weekend comes from the Scottish Championship as Queen of the South host promotion favourites Ross County.

I’m looking at goals market here as both sides have been scoring plenty goals in recent weeks.

Queens have seen 9/11 league and cup games going over 2.5 goals this season with all four of their league games seeing over 2.5 or better.

QoS have hit 12 goals in their last three games with top striker Steven Dobbie scoring nine in his last three. He’s already scored 20 goals in 11 games this season.

County sit top of the league after winning three of the opening four games, two of those games went over 2.5. Both those games were away from home, just like Saturdays game.

Ross County have seen over 2.5 in five of their last six outings so it’s hard to see this game not being a goal fest.

The form of top marksman Dobbie means you have to fancy QOS to score at least once. Factor in top of the league Ross County, and it should make for a great encounter this weekend!

Liverpool o3
Chelsea o3
LCFC o2.5
Arsenal o2.5

i like these overs as well, let's do it today
GL

Barnsley have been the most impressive League One side so far this campaign. Daniel Stendel has had an immediate impact since taking charge and his high-intensity style has led the Tykes to 15-points from seven games. They remain unbeaten.

On the road, Barnsley have scored two or more goals in all three of their trips and more generally in the division, no side has mustered more shots at goal, shots on target, or shots in the box.

Allowing just four goals, the divisions lowest, no side have allowed fewer shots than Stendel’s side.

I make them favourites to go on and win the league, so the Evens about them away at Coventry can be snapped up.

Newly-promoted Coventry are still adapting to life without talisman and top-goalscorer Marc McNulty. The Sky Blues have scored just five times in seven matches.

In Alex Mowatt, George Moncur, Brad Potts, Lloyd Isgrove and Cameron McGeehan Barnsley have deep midfield quality.

Striker Kieffer Moore was last season plying his trade in the Championship and has flourished down a tier, bagging six goals in seven – outscoring Saturday’s opponents, Coventry.

If Moore, isn’t firing, then Victor Adeboyejo can make an impact. He is yet to start a game but has scored twice from the bench. Mamadou Thiam took the league by storm in the opening two weeks of the season and has the ability to turn a game on its head.

Time: Saturday, September 15 12:45 UTC kick-off

Venue: Wembley Stadium

Tottenham vs. Liverpool predicted lineups
Tottenham predicted lineup

3-5-2: Lloris; Alderweireld, D. Sanchez, Vertonghen; Trippier, Eriksen, Dier, Alli, Davies; Moura, Kane.

Tottenham team news:

Son Heung-min will be back in contention after by-passing military service for South Korea due to his country defeating Japan 2-1 in the Asian Games final.

Dele Alli will miss out due to a muscle injury which forced him to miss England's friendly win over Switzerland.

Hugo Lloris will also miss the match, with the goalkeeper failing to shrug off a thigh problem.

Moussa Sissoko and Erik Lamela are also doubts, both suffering with hamstring problems.

Liverpool predicted lineup

4-3-3: Alisson; Alexander Arnold, Joe Gomez, Virgil van Dijk, Robertson; Milner, Naby Keïta, Henderson; Sadio Mané, Salah, Firmino.

Liverpool team news:

Adam Lallana has confirmed that he will miss the clash against Tottenham.

Fabinho insists he is ready for his Liverpool debut should Jurgen Klopp decide to include the Brazilian.

Tottenham vs. Liverpool expected goals stats
• Tottenham expected goals per game: 1.83

• Tottenham expected goals against per game: 1.08

• Tottenham expected points per game: 1.89

• Liverpool expected goals per game: 2.43

• Liverpool expected goals against per game: 0.53

• Liverpool expected points per game: 2.45

Tottenham started the season in good form, but last weekend’s defeat to Watford will have put a question mark next to Mauricio Pochettino’s side.

A great result away at Old Trafford left fans thinking what might be, but it shouldn’t be ignored, that Manchester United were the better team in the first half, creating far more chances than the visitors, only to be let down by poor finishing.

The expected goals statistics xG: (MUN 1.66 – 1.42 TOT) show that the result was very unfortunate for Jose Mourinho’s side, with Spurs having Lucas Moura and Harry Kane to thank for making the most of their opportunities.

Despite the setback against Watford, according to xG, it was Spurs who were unfortunate to lose the match - The Hornets only generated 0.50 xGF, compared to 0.72 xGF from the North London side. The defeat meant it was the first time that Tottenham have lost a match in which they had led in the Premier League since November 2016, ending a run of 48 league matches without defeat when taking the lead at any stage.

Tottenham have started the season well, but their underlying numbers haven’t been as impressive as you would expect, particularly defensively where they have 4.8 xGA so far this season.

Harry Kane was a key part of England’s success at the World Cup this summer, and his xG/90 has fallen from 0.74 last season to 0.46 after four games, signifying the need for more quality service from his teammates.

Read: Analysing the trends of the Premier League Golden Boot race
Aside from Chelsea, Liverpool are the only team from the ‘big-six’ to have won all of their matches in the Premier League so far this season, a start that sees the Reds sit on top of the table.

Klopp’s side have justifiably been victorious in all their games, and have been impressive in attack with 9.7 xGF and 2.7 xGA defensively.

Despite their great start, the Merseyside club are yet to beat Tottenham on the road under Jurgen Klopp (D2 L1), but this Liverpool side is vastly improved, currently scoring a goal every 40 minutes in the Premier League so far.

Salah, Mane and Firmino contributed 91 goals across all competitions last season, which saw Salah become a revelation in attack, scoring 32 Premier League goals. The Egyptian has yet to really take off so far this campaign, but 12 shots at goal with 7 on target suggest it is only a matter of time before the 26 year-old starts scoring consistently.

The Liverpool squad is progressively coming into its prime, and it is hard to make a case that any team other than Manchester City should be favourites to win the Premier League, but Liverpool so far look best placed.

Liverpool have come a long way since the heavy 4-1 defeat at Wembley 11 months ago against Tottenham, and will come into the match full of confidence.

Only Joe Gomez of the back five who started against Spurs that day will be expected to feature, and the England defender will come into the match in fine form. Add to that, the arrival of Allison and Liverpool look well-equipped to take something from the game at Wembley.

Three clean sheets in four games for the Brazilian goalkeeper sees the 25 year-old with a shots-saved percentage of 90.9%, making 10 saves in the four games, conceding the least amount of goals in the Premier League this season.

The winners of the last three Premier League Golden Boots will feature (Kane and Salah) and this fixture has delivered 9 goals in the last two Premier League meetings.

A big Wembley pitch means the match should provide plenty of chances at both ends. Large pitches make it easier for possession-centric teams to keep the ball, spread play and drag their opponents out of position to create space, so odds of 1.840* for Over 2.5 and 3 goals looks a good bet.

With the game having a level Handicap (0), meaning there is expected to be no real difference in abilities between the two teams, a handicap bet on free-scoring Liverpool at odds of 1.847* also looks potential value for bettors.

Betting breakdown for Tottenham-Liverpool

27% on Tottenham (+206)
62% on Liverpool (+141)
11% on Draw (+259)