YRFI -105 (Play to -110)

Starting Pitchers: Jordan Montgomery vs. Mitch Keller

This is another pick I'm interested in partially because of an off-market line at Caesars, which is the only book where I'd currently play it.

There's other factors though, like Diamondbacks lefty Jordan Montgomery's 4.75 first time through the order ERA, and the Pirates significantly better splits against southpaws.

On the other side, Mith Keller has a first time through the order xFIP over 4.00 (but an ERA below 2.00) which suggests he's due for some considerable regression. I'm more inclined to bet on regression with a smaller sample size stat like first time through the order runs allowed, where some good (or bad) luck can be more impactful.

Reds Team-Specific YRFI +230 (Play to +205)

Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison vs. Hunter Greene

the Giants are on the wrong side of their platoon splits by a considerable amount, and are facing Hunter Greene. Greene has pitched himself into a borderline Cy Young candidate, with a sub-3.00 ERA and excellent first time through the order stats.

The Giants' Kyle Harrison has a 4.29 overall xFIP and a 4.30 first time through the order mark. While the Reds are on the wrong side of their platoon splits overall against the lefty, three of their first four hitters have a stronger wOBA against southpaws.

Plus, we have a top-five Park for offense and solid hitting weather, so it's worth risking a half-unit for a big payout.