Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Moneyline: Alcaraz -320, Medvedev +250

Spread: Alcaraz -4.5 Games (-115), Medvedev +4.5 Games (-105)

Total: Over 39.5 Games (-105), Under 39.5 Games (-120)

Last year, Alcaraz earned a 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 win over Medvedev in the Wimbledon semifinals. The Spaniard then went on to beat Novak Djokovic in the final, claiming the second Grand Slam title of his career. Of course, Alcaraz added to his trophy case with a French Open title in June. So, he’s undoubtedly feeling confident right now. Alcaraz has also won his last two matches against Medvedev in straight sets. One of those came at the ATP Finals last November and the other was at Indian Wells in March.

All of that might make it feel like Alcaraz is going to beat up on the Russian. However, let’s not forget that Medvedev earned a 7-6 (3), 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 victory over Alcaraz in their last meeting at a major. That victory for the Russian came in the 2023 US Open semifinals. And it should serve as a reminder that Medvedev is comfortable on the big stage and is a master strategist. He’s also not as far off from the top tier of Alcaraz, Djokovic and Jannik Sinner as the general public might think. We saw that in his five-set win over Sinner in the quarterfinals.

When he’s playing well, there are a lot of things that Medvedev can do to frustrate Alcaraz on a tennis court. For starters, Medvedev is one of the best returners on the planet. He stands deep in the court and uses his length to get serves back in the court, and that could give Alcaraz some trouble here. The Spaniard has not been serving well in London, which we saw in a big way in his meeting with Tommy Paul. But Paul wasn’t able to consistently hold himself, so he was giving those breaks back. Medvedev is a little sharper as a server, so he should take advantage when he gets in front.

Alcaraz will likely combat the Medvedev return by going to the serve-and-volley game. But he’ll need to be hitting his spots consistently in order to do that. Also, in their US Open match, Medvedev was able to consistently hit passing shots by Alcaraz. That’s why Medvedev’s form is so important. If he’s on his game, he can flirt with beating him. And it’s pretty clear he’s on his game right now.

Medvedev is also one of the best defenders in the history of the sport. He’s going to chase down every shot Alcaraz hits and try to force him to hit more. That could potentially lead to some unforced errors. That strategy is what has allowed Paul to find success against Alcaraz. Well, Medvedev is even better at it because he has more size. He also keeps the ball lower than Paul. That forces Alcaraz to get low and hit from uncomfortable angles.

Overall, it wouldn’t be shocking at all if Alcaraz wins this match. In fact, I expect him to do so. But +5.5 games is out there at a reasonable price for Medvedev, and that’s hard to turn down in a match that I think the Russian can actually win.

Bet: Medvedev +5.5 Games (-159 – 1.5 units)

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic Odds
Moneyline: Djokovic -700, Musetti +500

Spread: Djokovic -6.5 Games (+105), Musetti +6.5 Games (-130)

Total: Over 35.5 Games (-115), Under 35.5 Games (-110)

At the French Open, Musetti had a lead on Djokovic heading into the fourth set. From there, the 24-time Grand Slam champion seized control of the match. Djokovic ended up winning 7-5, 6-7 (6), 2-6, 6-3, 6-0 in four hours and 32 minutes. Djokovic is now 5-1 in six career meetings with Musetti, and two of the victories have come in Grand Slams. However, Musetti won two sets in both of their previous meetings at majors. And overall, the last three matches between these two have been competitive. That makes it hard not to like Musetti to win one set — especially at a reasonable price.

Musetti is coming off a five-set win over Taylor Fritz and has been playing with tape on one of his legs. So, it’s definitely understandable if you have concerns over Musetti’s fitness. After all, Djokovic got a walkover against Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals, so he has had three full days of rest. And his win over Holger Rune in his previous match was nice and quick. That surprisingly gives Djokovic a nice edge in the health department, even though the 37-year-old had knee surgery just four weeks ago. But even factoring that in, it’s hard to imagine Djokovic winning this thing in straight sets.

After Musetti blew a two-set lead over Djokovic at the 2021 French Open, it took him quite some time to build his confidence back up. But Musetti is now 29-18 since the start of the 2024 season, so his confidence should be at an all-time high. This is the best year he has had at the ATP level. Musetti has also been doing extremely well on grass. The Italian made it to the final at Queen’s Club, and he is now 18-9 on grass in his career. Sure, that doesn’t touch Djokovic’s grass-court success. The Serbian has won seven Wimbledon titles and is considered one of the best grass-court players of all time. But don’t come into this match making the mistake of thinking that Musetti can’t play on this surface. He can absolutely crush shots from both wings, he has a nice backhand slice and his serve is harder to return here.

All in all, Musetti might have to get over some demons in order to compete in this match, as he had Djokovic on the ropes in Paris and then the 37-year-old put his foot on the gas. But you’d have to think that Musetti now knows that his best level is good enough to hang in this matchup. So, if he comes out and executes at a high level, he should be able to put a dent in the scoreboard. Look for Musetti to test the Djokovic forehand in this one. In Paris, Musetti was switching up the looks he was giving Djokovic on that wing. That led to some mistakes from the Serbian.

I know that the quicker conditions are going to help Djokovic quite a bit, which is why I don’t think Musetti has as good of a shot at winning as he did in Paris. But I don’t think the change in surface will be enough for Djokovic to squash Musetti. The Italian is only getting better and better, while Djokovic is slipping a little.

Bet: Musetti +2.5 Sets (-140)