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msudogs
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Portugal
Much of the talk around Portugal is if their legendary captain Cristiano Ronaldo will start, and I’m not so sure he will. I was at the game in Qatar when then-manager Fernando Santos dropped him to the bench. His replacement Gonçalo Ramos fired in a sensational hat-trick in a 6-1 rout of Switzerland, and I left the Lusail Stadium thinking they could go on to win the World Cup.
The remainder of the squad for Germany looks fantastic with only six of the 26 playing their soccer in Portugal. They have representatives from four of Europe’s top five leagues and have exceptional talent all over the pitch.
They were the most impressive side in qualifying winning all 10 of their fixtures, showcasing they have goals throughout the team by scoring the most of any nation with 36. On top of that they had the meanest defence conceding just two goals on their way to keeping an incredible nine clean sheets. A real recipe for success.
Although I have my doubts about manager Roberto Martinez, he at least has solid tournament experience, leading Belgium to the third place at the 2018 World Cup and reaching the quarter finals with them in Euro 2020.
Using FIFA world rankings, the Portuguese are in the weakest of all six groups and will play a nation who finished third in their group in the Round of 16. Following that, in the quarterfinal, it would be the winner of two teams who finished as runners up, meaning they should avoid a high-ranked opponent until the semi-final.
Portugal are in the same half of the draw as Germany, and I can’t state strongly enough how I want to oppose the other half. I have plotted a Germany vs. Portugal semifinal and, therefore, will be guaranteed to still be holding a ticket for the big one on July 14th.
Pick: Portugal to win Euro 2024 at +700.
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06-13-24 08:08 AM |
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msudogs
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Posts: 65535
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Hungary
Marco Rossi saw his side suffer a shock first defeat since September 2022 earlier this month. Maybe that 2-1 defeat to Republic of Ireland will serve as a wakeup call ahead of this tournament. The early signs are good, as just four days later, Hungary bounced back to beat Israel 3-0.
This will be their third successive appearance at the European Championships. In 2016, they topped their group ahead of eventual winners Portugal, while last time out, they were drawn in the “Group of Death” alongside heavyweights France and Germany who they drew with, only losing to old foes the Portuguese.
Hungary will face Germany once more as they were drawn into Group A, but that should hold no fear after sharing a Nations League group in 2022—the “Magyars” drew the home tie but shocked the Germans with a 1-0 win in Leipzig.
England were also on the receiving end as they suffered defeats both away and embarrassingly by a 4-0 scoreline at home. Only Italy stopped Rossi’s side from topping the group and advancing to the semi-finals of that competition.
Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai provides the X-Factor, but the Hungarians are by no means a one-man team with a sprinkling of players from the EPL and Bundesliga throughout the squad. Barnabas Varga joint top-scored in qualifying alongside his captain with four goals, also bagging a brace in that victory over Israel to take his tally for his nation to six in 11 appearances.
The 29-year-old could be one to watch in Germany as he scored 29 goals in 40 appearances for his club side this season including nine in 11 Europa Conference League outings. In the same mold as his nation, he could fly under the radar and ruffle a few unsuspecting feathers.
With these huge outsiders, there are plenty of other options other than an outright win. From qualifying out of their group to making it to a certain stage in the tournament. They are simply sides I think can give us a run for our money against the favorites and provide lots of flexibility to bet according to your aversion to risk.
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06-13-24 08:10 AM |
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Germany to Win the Euros (+550 via bet365)
To start, Nagelsmann has always been a build out of the back, possession-dominant type of manager and he does it successfully by interchanging between a 2-3-5, 3-2-5 and 3-1-6 build up structure depending on the type of team they are facing out of possession. He’s always put a premium on dominating and overloading the middle of the pitch and with the personnel he has in the midfield it’s fascinating to see how teams will actually slow Germany down.
The problem that has existed for Germany for a long time is they haven’t had a consistent striker up top. With Nagelsmann at the helm he’s probably going to play Havertz up top, which gives Germany another deep lying playmaker in build up, and if you’ve watched Arsenal at all, you’ve seen not only how comfortable Havertz is in this role, but how well he plays in it.
If we are being honest, there isn’t a better tactical manager in this tournament than Nagelsmann and he has all of the pieces and has already implemented a lot of his in possession tactics that made him so successful at Bayern and RB Leipzig.
Because of the failures in recent tournaments, I believe the price on Germany has been suppressed too much. Taking into account home field advantage, the manager and the path to the final, they should be the same price as both France and England to win the Euros.
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06-13-24 08:16 AM |
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msudogs
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Euro 2024 is finally here as host nation Germany takes on Scotland in the opening match of the tournament.
The last two international tournaments have been a complete disaster by German standards. They were knocked out in the round of 16 at the last Euros and then failed to make it out of the group stage at the 2022 World Cup. Things have changed since that World Cup exit, with Julian Naglesmann now at the helm looking to establish Germany once again as one of the elites in Europe.
Scotland finished second in their qualifying group over the likes of Erling Haaland's Norway to get to Euro 2024. Things have not gone well for Scotland at major international tournaments, as they've never progressed past the group stage. They have a number of players with Premier League experience, so they will be no push over for Germany in this opening match.
Julian Naglesmann taking the helm for Germany is a massive boost because he is the best tactical manager in this tournament. What makes him so great is his ability to adapt to the situation. Germany will use a number of different build up structures given the opponent that they are going to face, so with Scotland playing a five man back line, I wouldn't be surprised to see Naglesmann have them set up in 3-1-6 build up.
The other great aspect about him is he's not of the thought that building out of the back is the only way they need to play. He also believes that if Germany have the opportunity to play direct, they are going to do it. They have incredible passing, pace and ball carrying ability in their attack with Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Kai Havertez and İlkay Gündoğan that can rip defenses apart.
Out of possession for Germany is where things really have improved from previous international tournaments. Under Hansi Flick at the World Cup, Germany were playing really aggressive with their high press and playing a high defensive line, which left them incredibly exposed. Under Naglesmann in the seven friendlies that he's been in charge, they are playing more of a 4-4-2 or even a 4-2-4 compact mid block, forcing opponents to either play the ball wide or send long balls up the striker. This tournament they have perhaps the most solid defensive center back pairing in Antonio Rüdiger and Jonathan Tah. They are incredibly good at winning both ground and aerial duals. So, Germany are going to be a much more difficult team to play though at the Euros.
The reason Scotland are at the Euros is because they are a good defensive team. Steve Clarke will have his side playing in a 5-3-2 out of possession and with the ball winning of Scott McTominay, John McGinn and Callum McGregor in the midfield they make it incredibly difficult for teams to play through the middle. Not only that, but they very rarely allow teams to get in transition against them and even if they do, they do an incredible job of stopping them. During qualifying, Scotland allowed the fewest counterattack shots per 90 minutes of anyone in the Euro field.
They are well equipped to play a possession-dominant team like Germany because they faced Spain twice in qualifying and held them to under one expected goal in the first half of both and then the match started to open up in the second half.
The problem with Scotland is they do not provide much going forward in attack. Lyndon Dykes is out for the tournament, which means Che Adams is going to be up top and he historically has not played well in a transition-based system. They were largely reliant on Scott McTominay scoring goals from the edge of the box during qualifying, but having a deep lying midfielder being your leading goalscorer is generally not a great sign for your offense.
Naglesmann, like most elite managers, wants his team to play through the middle of the pitch. He tends to do a pretty massive overload there with Wirtz and Kimmich holding width near the touchline to get them into 1 v 1 situations. Scotland did an incredible job in both matches against Spain in qualifying at closing off the middle of the pitch and forcing the ball out wide. Spain then proceeded to send in a bunch of crosses, which were largely unsuccessful.
Germany are not the type of team that is going to consistently beat teams with crosses into the box and quite frankly, they do not have the aerial winners to get on the end of them. So, I think it's going to be a little bit of a stalemate early on.
During qualifying, Scotland only conceded three first half goals and also only allowed 0.52xG per first half. So, I like the value on the first half under 1 at +120.
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06-14-24 08:44 AM |
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msudogs
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Hungary and Switzerland open up their tournaments in a crucial match in Group A.
Hungary won their qualifying group over Sebnia to get back to the Euros. They bring a mix of experience and young talent to the tournament, but they are favored to finish third in this group. Marco Rossi has been at the helm since 2018 and getting Hungary to back to back Euros has been an accomplishment in and of itself.
Switzerland finished second in their qualifying group behind Romania, but they are one of the more underrated teams in this tournament. In terms of experience, no team in this tournament has more than Switzerland, whose Starting XI has been playing together for the last two international tournaments. They made it to the quarterfinals of the last Euros, upsetting France along the way, so they are an incredibly dangerous team if they get out of Group A.
The problem with Hungary is that outside of their two matches against Serbia they weren’t tested against a team like Switzerland. Even in their two matches against Serbia they lost the expected goals battle in both and were constantly getting opened up in transition.
Hungary benefited from playing the entire group stage in a positive or even game state. When they did try to press Serbia, they were not effective at closing them down and then we’re terrible trying to defend in transition. In an incredibly easy group, they allowed the fifth-most counterattack shots per 90 minutes in the entire Euro field and were also bottom five in expected goals allowed per 90 minutes.
Hungary are most likely going to have to play direct to be successful in this match. They are completely reliant on Dominik Szoboszlai to be their main man in build up and outside of him they really struggle to get the ball out of their final third. They allowed the most high recoveries of anyone in the Euro field, which is a really bad matchup against Switzerland, who forced the sixth-most high recoveries.
Switzerland are one of the more underrated teams in this tournament and have a great matchup against Hungary.
They have a core that has been playing together for a long time and the Swiss play Murat Yakin’s system really well. During qualifying, only Portugal and France had a better expected goal differential than Switzerland, who put up +2.00 xGD per 90 minutes. They underperformed pretty drastically both offensively and defensively, but the reason they are so good is how adaptable and how good they are in possession.
They are prepared for this matchup because they played a ton of passive low blocks throughout qualifying and were incredibly effective at breaking them down. Granit Xhaka is the conductor of the entire attack with Remo Fruler usually pushing forward in the half space try and allow Switzerland to create an overload centrally. It’s all about passing triangles in the half space for the Swiss. Against Romania, they constantly were pulling defenders out of position with their one touch passing and it allowed them to create well over five goals in their two meetings.
Switzerland are being highly undervalued by the market because of finishing second in their qualifying group, but the underlying numbers suggest they were one of the best teams in Europe during qualifying. They allowed 11 goals off of 5.5 expected, so they are due for some positive regression and really shouldn't be conceding a lot of high quality chances here against Hungary.
Hungary's weaknesses all stem from when they are out of their comfort zone. They are perfectly fine defending in a passive 5-3-2, but when they have to counter-press, defend in transition or even defend set pieces, they are one of the worst teams in this entire tournament.
In addition to that, if Dominik Szoboszlai gets neutralized, Hungary have nobody else that can cause Switzerland's defense problems.
Pick: Switzerland ML +125
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06-15-24 12:42 PM |
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msudogs
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Spain and Croatia meet again after Spain beat them in the round of 16 of the previous Euros.
Spain were incredibly dominant during qualifying winning seven of their eight matches and brings one of the most talent squads in Europe to this tournament. They are no longer under the management of Luis Enrique, as Luis de la Fuente has taken over. Spain are naturally one of the favorites with the amount of elite talent littered all over the squad, but it's been a while since they won a major international trophy.
Croatia have been one of the most difficult teams to play over the past three international tournaments. They made it all the way to the final of the 2018 World Cup, took Spain to extra time at the last Euros, and by sheer will made it the semifinals of the World Cup in 2022. The core though is getting old and this seemingly, their last chance at deep run, so they'll need a result here against Spain to give them a good shot at getting out of this difficult group.
Spain are the most possession-dominant team in this entire tournament. They never held under 67% possession in all of their eight qualifying matches and that is not going to change here. Luis Enrique has moved on to manage PSG, which made way for Luis de la Fuente who has been managing Spain’s youth teams for over a decade, so the style of play from Spain is not going to change one bit.
While Spain are really good at controlling the ball, they really aren’t that good against solid defensive blocks. Against Scotland in qualifying, they kept trying to overload the middle of the pitch, but it didn’t work. The ball kept circulating side to side to try and create an opening, but the first meeting ended with them creating only 1.37 xG and taking only nine shots. Then they started to overload the wide areas in the second meeting and create chances via crosses, but they weren’t really successful at doing that either because they are 17th in the Euro field in cross completion rate.
Spain are a really good defensive team with their ability to counter-press opponents and win the ball back. They had the best PPDA in Euro qualifying, while also having the second-most high recoveries. They also are really good at defending crosses in their own end of the pitch. Even if Croatia is able to attacking them transitionally out wide, Spain allowed the fifth-lowest cross completion rate in qualifying.
Croatia are about as solid of a defensive team as there is in this tournament. They were incredibly difficult to play through in qualifying, allowing only 0.58 xG per 90 minutes. Really the only time teams had success with them is when they got into transition. Croatia’s midfield of Brozovic, Kovacic and Modric will all zonal mark while the rest of the defense goes man to man. That is incredibly difficult to play through because it’s almost impossible to pull them out of position centrally and create overloads anywhere on the pitch.
Spain will counter-press and leave themselves vulnerable in transition moments, but Croatia have one of the lowest direct speeds in this tournament. They are incredibly ineffective in the final third against good defensive teams. They averaged well over two expected goals per 90 minutes throughout qualifying, but that was mainly because of the 10.9 expected goals they created in their four matches against Armenia and Latvia.
The pace of this match is going to be incredibly slow, which is going to lead to a low-event type of match.
Spain are going to control a large share of the possession, but that doesn't mean they are going to be effective with it. As was the case against Scotland in qualifying, they struggle to build up through good solid compact defensive blocks, which is exactly what Croatia are. Since Spain simply does not play in transition at all and strictly builds up, they cannot exploit Croatia’s main weakness.
The flip side though is to beat Spain, you have to be able to attacking them in transition with a lot of pace, which is exactly what Croatia don't have. Plus, all of their issues in the final third and building through pressure make it really hard to see how they are going to create high quality chances against Spain.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-135 via BetMGM)
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06-15-24 02:46 PM |
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msudogs
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Italy begin their Euro title defense when they take on Albania in Group B.
Italy are your defending Euro champions, but they have somehow failed to qualify for the last two world cups, which makes them somewhat of a darkhorse in this tournament. They made a change half way through qualifying, bringing in former Napoli manager Luciano Spalletti, who has them playing very well entering this tournament.
Albania have qualified for the second ever European Championship after an impressive campaign that saw them winning their qualifying group over both Poland and the Czech Republic. They are one of the biggest long shots to even get to the knockout stage, so a result here against Italy would be massive.
The Italians have looked better under Luciano Spalletti, but breaking down Albania’s low block is going to be a very tough task.
Italy’s system under Spalletti is mainly reliant on the fullbacks pushing up the pitch and inverting once they get to the final third to create wide passing triangles and eventually create a shot via a cross. They were incredibly effective with this style because in the six matches that he was in charge they created 12.16 expected goals. The thing is, a lot of their chances came when they were in a positive game state.
The key for Italy in this tournament is going to be who plays at striker. Spalletti loves Raspadori from his days at Napoli and has started him up top in four of Italy’s qualifying matches, but Gianluca Scamacca (Atalanta) is one of the hottest strikers on the planet right now. Scamacca plays in an Atalanta system that is also very reliant on attacking from out wide and creating chances via crosses, so he would be perfect in this type of system and would give Italy the best chance offensively.
Under Spalletti, Italy’s 5-3-2 defensive block was incredibly difficult to break down. In the six matches he was in charge they only allowed 4.7 expected goals. They had the fifth-highest duel win rate and allowed the fifth-fewest progressive passes, so it’s really hard to see how Albania create even close to one expected goal in this match.
Albania will play really passively, but they are very active in the final third. When that happens they man mark all over the pitch and put a lot of pressure on the ball to try and win it to create a transition opportunity. Their shape is generally very narrow when they decide to sit off a little more, which usually happens when they are playing with a lead, making it very difficult for teams to play through the middle. Pressuring the ball in the final third against a team like Italy is really important because of the passers this Italian side has that can rip through defensive blocks.
Albania only allowed four goals and 0.98 xG per 90 minutes throughout qualifying, so this is a really good defensive side. The problem with them is that they have very little offense. They generally rely on transition breaks to create most of their chances, as they had the fifth-most counterattack shots in the Euro field, but they way they settle for chances is not sustainable.
Of the 12 goals that Albania scored during qualifying, seven of them were low quality chances from outside the box, mainly by Jasir Asani, who plays in South Korea’s K1 League. To be fair, they didn’t have their best striker Armando Broja available during qualifying, but he’s going to be on an island for a lot of this match.
This is going to be a very slow paced match with Italy controlling a lot of possession, but their ability to break down Albania's defensive structure remains in question. Sylvinho has his side set up in a really good and compact defensive block that didn't allow many high quality chances during qualifying.
The hard part for Albania is their attack is reliant on a few counterattacking opportunities and shots from outside the box, which is not sustainable or an effective way of creating high quality chances against this Italian defense.
This match is set up to be very low event
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06-15-24 04:32 PM |
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msudogs
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Serbia and England kick off their tournaments with a crucial match in Group C.
Serbia finished second in their qualifying group to get back to the Euros after missing out on the tournament in 2021. They had a very poor showing at the World Cup in 2022, but there is talent littered across this squad with a style of play that could give them a real shot at upsetting England.
England is your tournament favorite, bringing one of the most talented teams in their history to the Euros. This will be Gareth Southgate's last international tournament as the England boss and will be looking to end their title drought that dates all the way back to 1966. They lost on penalties to Italy in the Euro 2021 final, so they will be looking for redemption at this tournament.
Serbia is the biggest chaos team in this entire tournament. Their style of play both in possession and out of possession is for lack of a better word, "crazy." When they have the ball, they are always looking to play very direct, get the ball out wide and swing in crosses because they have two of best aerial threats in this entire tournament in Dusan Vlahovic and Aleksander Mitrovic.
The problem with playing that style is, if you run into a team that can defend crosses well, defend well in transition, and compete for aerial duals, you are kind of stuck offensively.
Out of possession where the real problems lie for Serbia. Typically, you will see them always trying to counter press when they lose the ball or press high from dead ball situations, but they aren't that great of a pressing team.
What often happens is they are not good enough at closing the ball down, which creates an easy transition opportunity for the opponent. However, when they played Brazil at the World Cup, they decided to sit deep in a solid defensive structure and dared Brazil to break them down.
It actually worked for an extended period of time, and it took a wonder strike from Richarlison to put Brazil ahead. In the end, Serbia only allowed 2.2 expected goals, but a lot of the chances they conceded were after they were down 1-0.
England has absolutely everything to win the Euros, but the only thing that could hold them back is pragmatism.
England's build up is incredibly slow and Southgate is a little too obsessed with playing through the middle of the pitch. The passing and ball carrying ability they have in their midfield is insane with the likes of Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice, and maybe even Trent Alexander-Arnold if they decide to play him in more of a midfield role.
The problem that has existed is, if England faces a team with a really good compact defensive structure, the chances tend to dry up with it. With that being said they have the best striker in this tournament in Harry Kane, the best right winger in Bakayo Saka, and the Premier League player of the year in Phil Foden. So, trying to stop them is going to be a nightmare for any team.
While everyone is fawning over England's offense and rightfully so, it's their defense that is the real strong point. Since September of 2021, England is allowing 0.57 xG per 90 minutes in non-friendlies, which is lowest of anyone in Europe. Defending in transition and defending set pieces are the two biggest keys for some of the top sides to avoid getting upset.
Since England held 66% of the possession throughout qualifying, those are really the only two routes that teams have against them. They allowed the fewest shots per set piece in the Euro field and also allowed the sixth-fewest shots off of counterattacks.
Even though Serbia tends to play a very aggressive style, when they play against the top sides, they have shown to play a lot more passively in fear of getting opened up.
England is going to control a large majority of the possession in this match and really try to slow the pace down to avoid getting into a track meet with Serbia. Their ability to defend in transition, as well as set pieces, makes it very difficult for Serbia to find a route here in which they can actually create a decent number of high quality chances.
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06-15-24 11:11 PM |
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msudogs
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Posts: 65535
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Serbia vs England
Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET
This will be my sixth major tournament following England, and the usual optimism has been replaced by expectation. I was very hopeful that I would finally get to see my team lift some silverware. That was until the final 26-man squad was announced.
There is no room for game-changers Jack Grealish, James Maddison, or Marcus Rashford, with key centerback Harry Maguire missing out through injury. For this opening game, there are question marks about the defense. Maguire’s usual partner, John Stones, is doubtful with illness, and there is no specialist left back, which means, unusually, the Three Lions look set to concede.
Serbia are a massive threat in attack with the prolific Aleksandar Mitrović and Dušan Vlahović supported by the assist machine that is Dušan Tadić. Defensively they generally fall short as was the case in the 2022 World Cup where they leaked eight goals in losing their three group games conceding at least twice in each.
That makes both teams to score a massive play at plus money. Gareth Southgate will have Harry Kane leading the line having scored 44 goals across 45 appearances in his first season in Germany with Bayern Munich. He will be supported by the world-class trio of Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: Serbia vs England – Both Teams to Score Yes at +104.
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06-15-24 11:14 PM |
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msudogs
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Posts: 65535
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Favored Denmark will meet Slovenia in Sunday's middle kickoff in a fixture that may be a must-not-lose occasion in regards to both teams' knockout phase hopes.
Adding to the urgency will be familiarity from their two recent qualifying meetings in Group H. Denmark took four points from their two games, but both were tightly contested affairs with only one goal between the sides over two matches.
Denmark will be looking to replicate their rousing run to the 2020 semifinals (played in 2021 on account of the pandemic) and also put some of the disappointment of a group stage exit from the 2022 World Cup behind them.
Meanwhile, Slovenia are attempting to advance to their first ever major tournament knockout phase in their fourth attempt, and just their second trip to the European Championships.
As a group, Slovenia are a bit of a throwback to a previous era of football tactics that have more or less been eradicated at the highest levels of club football.
But the 4-4-2 with a low block employed by manager Matjaz Kec worked more often than not on the international qualifying stage, where simplicity often wins out given the lack of time teams can spend in training.
RB Leipzig's 21-year-old striker Benjamin Sesko is a major reason, having scored five times to help Slovenia finish two goals in front of the Danes on goal difference. He just signed a club contract extension this week, but that may not stop suitors from the Premier League's upper tier trying to pry him away from the Bundesliga.
In goal, Slovenia have one of the tournament's most experienced No. 1s in Atletico Madrid's Jan Oblak. Although he's had one of his more uneven seasons for his club, he kept four clean sheets in eight qualifying appearances and saved 76.9% of the shots on target he faced.
Denmark ultimately finished ahead of Slovenia atop Group H on the first head-to-head tiebreak, but they probably could've made their job easier with more cutting edge in the final third.
The Danes had 58% possession or more in all 10 of their qualifiers — and 80%-plus in three of those — yet only posted more than three goals once, in their 4-0 win over traditional minnows San Marino.
Manchester United's Rasmus Hojland was overwhelmingly the focal point of the attack, scoring seven of the Danes' 19 goals and averaging just over one per 90 minutes. His club teammate Christian Eriksen was one of two Danes with three assists along with Wolfsburg's Jonas Wind.
Manager Kasper Hjulmand's squad are also looking for their first tournament-opening win since a 1-0 triumph over Peru to start the 2018 World Cup in Russia.
The Danes have the higher quality roster and should be favored, but given their track record in early tournament games, less than even money is steep.
You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find a tournament where Denmark scored multiple goals in its first group match of either a European Championship or a World Cup, when they bested Uruguay 2-1 in South Korea. That's not a formula for a a comfortable victory, even if Slovenia are limited. And this version of Denmark has already shown difficulty pulling away from inferior opposition in the qualifying stages.
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06-16-24 05:18 PM |
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msudogs
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Posts: 65535
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Group E action kicks off Monday morning at Euro 2024 when Ukraine and Romania meet at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany.
Romania returns to a major tournament for the first time since Euro 2016, and it has only advanced beyond the group stage once at this event. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians qualified through the playoffs with a group of young, talented attackers.
With everything going on off the field, you have to feel that Ukraine will be a team that a lot of neutrals will be pulling for in this tournament. This could help push a squad with plenty of young stars.
It hasn’t been an easy road up to this point. First, this Ukrainian squad was paired in a qualifying group with England and Italy, which resulted in just two out of a possible 12 points in those head-to-head meetings.
Fortunately, Serhiy Rebrov’s team won the other fixtures before defeating Iceland and Bosnia in the playoffs to book its place in this tournament.
Most Premier League fans will know of Chelsea’s Mykhailo Mudryk and Oleksandr Zinchenko of Arsenal, but one name to watch is Artem Dovbyk. The Girona striker won the Golden Boot in La Liga this season.
This is a return to the big stage for Romania, a nation that has had success at major tournaments. This is a country that qualified for the knockout rounds at three straight World Cups from 1990-1998 and made the quarterfinals of this tournament in 2000.
However, there has not been much success since then, with Romania failing to qualify for the last six World Cups. This could be the type of Cinderella story that could surprise opponents in Germany.
One player EPL fans will know is Tottenham Hotspurs’ defender Radu Drăgușin. There are also two Romanians who featured in La Liga this season in goalkeeper Horațiu Moldovan (Atlético Madrid) and defender Andrei Ratiu (Rayo Vallecano).
With most of his better players in defense, Edward Iordănescu’s team typically allows opponents to have plenty of possession and looks to attack on the counter. I could see that being the plan here in this one.
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06-17-24 08:20 AM |
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msudogs
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Group E favorites Belgium will kick off their tournament on Monday against a Slovakia team that is considered one of the longest shots to reach the 16-team knockout phase.
Belgium cruised to the top of Group F despite a draw that included formidable foes in Sweden and Austria. And while their true "Golden Generation" may now be in the past, they still carry plenty of familiar faces and talent capable of making the plays needed to make deep tournament run.
Slovakia finished second in Group J behind Portugal in its successful bid to qualify for a third consecutive European Championships. They finished third in their group in their previous two appearances — reaching the knockout phase in 2016 — but are oddsmakers' most distant choice to win the group this time around.
Incidentally, both sides are managed by Italians who are relatively new to their jobs. Domenico Tedesco took over Belgium following Roberto Martínez's six-year reign that ended ignominiously in elimination in the 2022 World Cup group stage. Former Napoli assistant — and brief caretaker manager — Francesco Calzona assumed the reigns of Slovakia in August 2022 after their failed World Cup qualifying effort.
While Tedesco is Italian by heritage, he is also from the family of managers to develop within the Red Bull Football Group high-press philosophy. And perhaps that shows in Belgium's qualifying results.
Particularly, the Red Devils fared better against their higher-quality opponents when playing as an away side, scoring three goals each in victories at Austria and Sweden. At home against both opponents where they shouldered the burden of creating the game, they were limited to ball-dominant draws.
And while Tedesco is tasked with ushering in a generational change, several familiar faces are still in starring roles, led by Romelu Lukaku, who despite decline at club level continues to be one of the game's best forwards in international play.
The 31-year-old scored 14 of the Red Devils' 23 goals in qualifying, with only one from the penalty spot. Most of that came despite not having Manchester City's Kevin De Bruyne as a provider.
The soon-to-be 33-year-old De Bruyne appeared only once in the qualifying campaign as he grappled with injuries that also limited him in club play. But he started and resumed his captaincy in Belgium's two June friendlies in preparation for the tournament.
Slovakia scored its share of goals during its qualifying campaign, but conventional wisdom suggests it will need to keep matches lower scoring to be successful in the tournament proper.
Calzona doesn't have the kind of attacker at his disposal capable of producing something special when the team isn't collectively generating chances.
The closest may be Lukáš Haraslín, a second-striker type who is coming off a career season with 12 goals and five assists in the league for Sparta Prague. But he's not even a guaranteed starter, having scored three times in five qualifying appearances.
On the other end, Martin Dúbravka again assumes No. 1 goalkeeping duties despite the 35-year-old serving as a backup at Newcastle. Paris St. Germain center back Martin Škriniar is Slovakia's most elite player.
Don't overthink this one.
Lukaku's track record still plays internationally, where he not only scored often in qualifying but also spread his goals across all but one of his eight appearances. He also scored in every match against Austria and Sweden, the second- and third-place finishers in Belgium's group, so it's not just about running up the numbers against the minnows.
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06-17-24 08:22 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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France and Austria will open their tournaments with a crucial match in Group D.
After losing on penalties in the 2022 World Cup final, France is out for redemption at the Euros, looking to win its first major international trophy since the 2018 World Cup. They are the second favorites behind England and have the best player in the world in Kylian Mbappe, but this is a tricky first match for them in what will be a difficult group.
Austria comes into the Euros after an impressive qualifying campaign under Ralf Rangnick. They finished second to Belgium in their qualfying group, but the underlying numbers were incredibly impressive. They are set up incredibly well to play as the underdog and will give France a lot of fits both in and out of possession.
Austria is also a really good transition side that likes to utilize its ability out of possession, forcing high turnovers to create easy direct counter attacking opportunities. When they do transition, they like to get the ball out wide to create opportunities via cutbacks or crosses to the far post. They were top eight in accurate crosses per 90 minutes in the Euro field, while also having the sixth-most counter attack shots.
That actually is going to work really well against France, which allowed the highest cross-completion rate in qualifiers. What is also concerning for France is they didn’t really win many duels in their own final third, as they had the second-lowest defensive duel win rate.
Austria is very versatile in possession as well. Because of its ability both from build-up situations and attacking in transition, Austria averaged 2.05 xG per 90 minutes and the fourth-most shots per 90 minutes during qualifying. They have a pretty decent striker as well in Michael Gregoritsch, who averaged over four shots per 90 minutes in qualifying and is coming off a productive season, with Freiburg putting up a 0.57 npxG per 90 minute scoring rate.
Austria is the type of opponent that I am not sure France is ready for.
France is a really unique team in the fact that is not interested in controlling or holding a majority of the possession in a match. They want to try to get in transition as often as they possibly can. That worked throughout qualifying against the Netherlands because they let them have the ball and created a lot of transition opportunities. Where they had some struggles were against teams that played very compact low blocks.
They also did not face a team that pressed or won duels at the rate Austria does. Rangnick is not going to have his side press recklessly, but if they do force France into long balls out of build-up moments, they allowed the third-lowest long ball completion percentage and had the highest duel win rate of anyone in the Euro field during qualifiers.
Of course, France has Mbappe and all of the attacking talent in the world, so they are a team that can blitz you at a moments notice, but consistently losing duels all over the pitch makes them an overvalued favorite.
France is one of the favorites in this tournament for a reason. They have way more talent than just about every team in this field, but being so reliant on trying to play direct has come back to bite them in years past. They also have been facing a ton of low defensive blocks throughout qualifying and haven't faced a mid-to-high block pressing team like Austria.
Austria is a really underrated team in this tournament. Being good out of possession, winning duels and hurting teams in transition is vital if you want to pull off an upset as an underdog — and they have all three.
France may very well win with their quality, but they are overvalued in this first match.
Pick: Austria +1 -105
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06-17-24 08:40 AM |
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