NRFI -125 (Play to -135)

Starting Pitchers: Patrick Sandoval vs. Keaton Winn

This bet is primarily based on the belief that both starters actual ERA regress closer to their ERA predictors, all of which are much better. Sandoval has a 5.23 overall ERA but 3.84 xFIP on the season, with those numbers dropping to 3.64 and 3.25 his first time through the order.

He'll need to be good against a Giants lineup that hits lefties well, though San Francisco is implied for a moderate 4.29 runs today.

It's an easier task for Keaton Winn, who has a 6.92 ERA but 3.92 xFIP overall, but with both numbers also better his first time time around the lineup. He's facing an Angels team that hits well below average against righties.

At a certain point we'll have to give up hope for regression on players like this, but at this point in the season there's still reason to believe their luck will turn around.

YRFI -110 (Play to -120)

Starting Pitchers: Grayson Rodriguez vs. Taijuan Walker

On the other side of the regression coin, we have Grayson Rodriguez. He has a 3.09 ERA his first time through the order, but an absurd 5.35 xFIP. His overall indicators are also a bit higher than his actual ERA, but the effect is far more pronounced early in games.

That's not quite enough to go on just by itself, but this game features two top-10 offenses against righties, and another pitcher in Taijuan Walker with a 5.40 overall ERA and 5.09 first time through the order ERA.

YRFI -110 (Play to -120)

Starting Pitchers: Cooper Criswell vs. Carlos Rodon

While this game features two solid starters, it also has the Yankees. They're the best team in baseball against right-handed pitching, with the two best hitters in baseball getting guaranteed first inning ABs.

Plus, this is a very solid price on a YRFI in a game with a nine-run total — almost enough that I'd blindly bet it without any other information.

New York is projecting for most of the value, so you could certainly take their team-specific YRFI or first inning moneyline for a bigger payout. However, Rodon's underlying numbers are considerably worse than his actual ERA, which gives Boston a reasonable shot at scoring here too.

Good luck today
See you at the window