STL
PIT
BOS - already started

Windycity, How'd you get the info? Logical Approach is still showing Fri matchups.

I just updated the spreadsheet.

What spreadsheet? I've been getting the info from the L A site.

2011 Season
5/13 - 6/7
Home: 37-20 (+7.73)
Away: 31-30 (-2.82)

Home Teams: -160> 16-5(+7.01)
InterLeague Home: 5-0 (+5.0)
InterLeague Away: 5-6 (-1.87)

6/3
Home: 2-1(+.7)
Fla-130 L
StL-166 W
LAA-138 W

Away: 1-2(-1.5)
Phi-150 L
LAD+116 L
TX-112 W

6/4
Home:
StL-185
Pit-105
Bos-169 [Game has started]

Away:
Col-119
LAD-102
Atl-119
Tor-119
Det-122
NYY-139

GL

2011 Season
5/13 - 6/7
Home: 40-20 (+10.73)
Away: 35-32 (-1.2)

Home Teams: -160> 18-5(+9.01)
InterLeague Home: 5-0 (+5.0)
InterLeague Away: 5-6 (-1.87)

6/4
Home: 3-0(+3.0)
StL-185 W
Pit-105 W
Bos-169 [Game has started] W

Away: 4-2(+1.62)
Col-119 W
LAD-102 W
Atl-119 L
Tor-119 L
Det-122 W
NYY-139 W

6/5
Home:
Fla-133
AZ-160
Bal-142

Away:
Atl-124
LAD+110
Phi-181
TX-130
Oak+115
NYY-123

GL

2011 Season
5/13 - 6/7
Home: 40-23 (+6.38)
Away: 39-34 (+.66)

Home Teams: -160> 18-6(+7.41)
InterLeague Home: 5-0 (+5.0)
InterLeague Away: 5-6 (-1.87)

6/5
Home: 0-3 (-4.35)
Fla-133 L
AZ-160 L
Bal-142 L

Away: 4-2 (+1.86)
Atl-124 L
LAD+110 W
Phi-181 W
TX-130 W
Oak+115 L
NYY-123 W

6/6
Home:
Phi-189
SF-195
Cle-149
TX-152

Away:
CHC+123
Sea-104
TB-135

GL

2011 Season
5/13 - 6/7
Home: 42-25 (+5.37)
Away: 40-36 (-.38)

Home Teams: -160> 20-6 (+9.41)
InterLeague Home: 5-0 (+5.0)
InterLeague Away: 5-6 (-1.87)

6/6
Home: 2-2 (-1.01)
Phi-189 W
SF-195 W
Cle-149 L
TX-152 L

Away: 1-2 (-1.04)
CHC+123 L
Sea-104 L
TB-135 W

6/7
Home:
Mil-180
LAA-167

Away:
AZ-113
Atl-140
BOS-123

GL

2011 Season
5/13 - 6/7
Home: 42-27 (+1.9)
Away: 42-37 (+.49)

Home Teams: -160> 20-8 (+5.94)
InterLeague Home: 5-0 (+5.0)
InterLeague Away: 5-6 (-1.87)

6/7
Home: 0-2 (-3.47)
Mil-180 L
LAA-167 L

Away: 2-1 (+.87)
AZ-113 L
Atl-140 W
BOS-123 W

6/8
Home:
SF-177
Phi-183
Fla-119
Cle-154
TX-174
CWS-143

Away:
StL-140

GL

2011 Season
5/13 - 6/7
Home: 45-30 (+.72)
Away: 42-38 (-.91)

Home Teams: -160> 23-8 (+8.94)
InterLeague Home: 5-0 (+5.0)
InterLeague Away: 5-6 (-1.87)

6/8
Home: 3-3 (-1.16)
SF-177 W
Phi-183 W
Fla-119 L
Cle-154 L
TX-174 W
CWS-143 L

Away: 0-1 (-1.4)
StL-140 L

6/9
Home:
Mil-174
Det-200

Away:
Atl-120
LAD+102
Tor-135
Oak-101

GL

2011 Season
5/13 - 6/7
Home: 46-31 (-.02)
Away: 43-41 (-3.27)

Home Teams: -160> 24-9 (+8.2)
InterLeague Home: 5-0 (+5.0)
InterLeague Away: 5-6 (-1.87)

6/9
Home: 1-1 (-.74)
Mil-174 L
Det-200 W

Away: 1-3 (-2.36)
Atl-120 W
LAD+102 L
Tor-135 L
Oak-101 L

6/10
Home:
Phi-210
Fla-143
Col-150
LAA-154

Away:
StL-103
TB-125
TX-153

GL

Anyone ready to consider talk of filters yet……?
It’s a great system but the game is comprised of more than pitching alone.

Oldguy, how about a split since the first of June?

Jeff Dane System Since 5/08
Home Away 1* 2** 1*plus 1*minus
3***
-248 -673 301 790 423 38 391
59% 51% 55% 64% 89% 63% 100%
47 32 44 43 51 41 36 20 8 1 17 10 6 0

Forgive the mess needed to see if I could copy and paste from excel.

teamfball, here is the split between May and June:

2011 Season
5/13 - 5/31
Home: 33-16 (+9.24)
Away: 26-25 (-2.83)

Home Teams: -160> 13-4 (+5.65)
InterLeague Home: 5-0 (+5.0)
InterLeague Away: 5-6 (-1.87)


2011 Season
6/1 – 6/9
Home: 13-15 (-9.26)
Away: 17-16 (-.44)

Home Teams: -160> 11-5 (+2.55)

any other input for filters lets hear it.

Well, only one true JD-sys filter in play today. STL –103
This is comparing AvgRunsFor, ExpRunsAgst along with JD-sys.
17-10 since 5/8, and 5-3 since 6/1 both plus money but not much.

All very difficult to explain in words, thank goodness for excel. I’m tracking nine different categories on my sheet and several more in my head.

The best by far considers the same run data as above just a different logic, I call it my 2 star play often a dog. Again just one play today Wash +142. The only relationship this has to JD-sys is,….I never play if it goes against a JD play! 36-20 since 5/8 +790, and 10-6 since 6/1 +202 both plus money. From memory I think it’s 2-3 against JD, but when my 2 star matches a JD play it becomes a 3 star, now 6-0 since 5/8 +391, and 2-0 since 6/1 +123.

Good work OG,
I check your numbers every day. Just prefer to assume a risk of 100 instead of win 100.
Hm 13-15 (-737) Aw 17-16 (-188) since 6/1

I've always thought BULLPEN stats of some sort could be worked into this. A pitcher that shows up in this system might have a crappy bullpen and we'd want to stay away. I just don't know what we be a cutoff or stats to test. Thoughts?

You'd almost want to segregate it to the closer and setup man's stats...since they are likely taking a winning game. In other words, leave out the long relievers, middle relievers and etc.

Good point Hal
I should have used “starting” in the line above.
“but the game is comprised of more than ______ pitching alone.”

Any thoughts on Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP)
Or where bullpen stats can be found?

Whenever a pitcher qualifies, I just check the pitcher's team's bullpen ERA rank and if it's better than his opponent, I become a little more assured. It's hard to individualize every relief pitcher's stats because there's no telling who is going to toe the rubber night in, night out.

Bullpen Stats

Terrific idea, have you tracked this bullpen ERA vs. the JD-sys?

I see that MLB stat page also offers a WHIP value for the bullpens.
Maybe we can simply add bullpen whip and or ERA must be higher as a criteria and see what happens.

Has anyone saved these bullpen stats for back testing purposes?

2011 Season
5/13 - 6/7
Home: 49-32 (+1.44)
Away: 44-43 (-4.55)

Home Teams: -160> 25-9 (+9.2)
InterLeague Home: 5-0 (+5.0)
InterLeague Away: 5-6 (-1.87)

6/10
Home: 3-1 (+1.46)
Phi-210 W
Fla-143 W
Col-150 W
LAA-154 L

Away: 1-2 (-1.28)
StL-103 L
TB-125 L
TX-153 W

6/11
Home:
SF-155
Phi-189
NYY-200
Min+121

Away:
AZ-120
TB-128
Sea+103
Oak+104

GL

whats the record for home favs above -180? since june 1st.

whats the record for fading home favs, under -180, on the +1.5 rl? since june 1st.