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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Liverpool and Tottenham haven't quite had the seasons that they originally envisioned, but we will still be served an intriguing fixture when the two meet Sunday morning.
Tottenham is currently in fifth in the Premier League, but a win is required if it is to have any legitimate chance at a top-four position and Champions League spot next year.
Liverpool returns home to Anfield after four consecutive away matches in the league and in Europe for Jurgen Klopp’s penultimate home match as Liverpool manager. The Reds' season has derailed in the last month, with losses to Crystal Palace, Everton and Atalanta, and a 2-2 draw at Manchester United and at West Ham last Saturday. While not technically eliminated from the title race, Liverpool would need three wins and collapses by both Arsenal and Manchester City to win the league in Klopp’s final season.
The Reds' biggest issue has been a lack of finishing quality in and around the penalty area. They’ve hit a slump as a side at the absolute worst time, scoring just eight total goals from their last 15.6 expected goals across eight matches in all competitions (six in the Premier League). That bad finishing run has been accompanied by a poor stretch of defense overall. The Reds have allowed 9.6 xGA in that eight match stretch and conceded 11 total goals.
Fatigue certainly may being playing a factor — Liverpool is allowing more high quality chances than it was before. The Reds have really struggled to defend set pieces as well, conceding one to Everton and one to West Ham in their last two PL matches. Defensive set pieces have been an issue for both clubs in this matchup.
Both Liverpool and Spurs rank in the bottom half of the league in goals conceded from set pieces this year, and the problem could become even worse if Virgil Van Dijk is unable to play. The Dutch center back and Liverpool stalwart is facing a late fitness test to try to play in this match.
Liverpool lost two matches in 57 at Anfield in all competitions prior to its last two defeats to Atalanta and Palace. The Reds' pressing energy and intensity is often difficult to overcome on their home ground, but the version of Liverpool entering this match is certainly vulnerable to Spurs solid technical quality and passing prowess to exploit the Reds declining defense. The Reds' finishing slump won’t last forever, but the form of star forward Mohamed Salah and injury to Darwin Núñez leaves Liverpool relying elsewhere for consistent elite goal production.
Ange Postecoglu has brought an exciting brand of football to the new Whit Hart Lane, but with how good Tottenham has been, they've drastically over-performed and have struggled to control matches. It’s been highlighted in their bad run of form losing three straight matches to teams that have primarily hit them in transition and exposed their weakness in defending set pieces.
Because Tottenham build up in a 2-3-5 and rely solely on Mickey van de Ven and Cristian Romero to stop any transition attacks when they lose the ball, teams have been able to create a lot of chances against them on the break. Spurs had been relying pretty heavily on not only those two center backs, but also their goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario’s shot-stopping, but he has started to regress over the past month.
Tottenham in possession though has been good. Even if the ball has only found the back of the net twice over their last three matches, they have created 4.7 expected goals. The offense also looks a lot better when Richarlison is able to play up top. Heung-Min Son is an outstanding attacker, but he’s a lot better at attacking from out wide and beating defenders in 1 v 1 situations.
James Maddison is also going to be a huge key in this match for Tottenham. He is not only one of the best players in the Premier League on the ball, but is tactically intelligent on when and where to pull defenders out of position to create space for all of their other attackers. With Liverpool relentlessly counter pressing, he is going to be a big key in Tottenham’s build up.
I really do not know what to expect from this contest from a quality perspective.
After both teams torpedoed their chances at achieving their primary objectives this season over the past couple of weeks — Liverpool trying to win the league and Tottenham attempting to earn Champions League qualification — neither side has much to play for besides pride. Of course, Liverpool will want to send Klopp out on a high note as well.
As we saw in the reverse fixture (or at least until Curtis Jones got sent off in the 26th minute), the clash of styles between Liverpool and Tottenham is capable of creating some really compelling game dynamics. A lack of motivation could inhibit that, however.
If both sides are up for it, the Reds will aggressively press Spurs’ buildup, and Spurs won’t be shy about playing through that press. Liverpool will aim to capitalize on any high turnovers they create, and Tottenham will look to take advantage of any “faux transitions” that arise once they break the first lines of the press. Given Spurs’ frailties in defensive transitions and set pieces, Liverpool will have a few avenues to goal, especially with the counter-attacking threat of Darwin Núñez and Mohamed Salah.
One of the biggest question marks about these sides’ respective setups on Sunday will be the midfield Ange Postecoglou deploys. In my opinion, a Pape Sarr, James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski triumvirate is the best Spurs can put together in their current squad. However, Postecoglou has been reluctant to start Sarr as the deepest of the three and has also preferred Kulusevski at right wing, where he’s spent most of his Tottenham career. An added boost from moving the Swede centrally is the ability to include Richarlison in the starting lineup, who would no doubt have an extra edge as a former Everton player.
With this contest at Anfield, Liverpool automatically has the upper leg, and with Spurs currently on a downward trajectory, I have a hard time seeing this one not going in favor of the home side.
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05-05-24 04:40 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Man United have four matches left in the Premier League season and they're now lined as an underdog at Crystal Palace on Monday Night Football. The Red Devils dropped into eighth place over the weekend after wins by Chelsea and Newcastle and United are in real danger of missing out on Europe entirely next season unless they're able to find some results away from home these next few weeks.
It's hard to imagine that Crystal Palace have ever been lined as a favorite against Manchester United in the history of either club. The Eagles have a consistently improving health situation as Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze are both expected to start and Marc Guehi is more likely than not to make his return from injury for this match.
Compare that with United's injury crisis at center back and the Eagles come into this match receiving a lot of market respect.
Oliver Glasner's first match in charge was a 3-0 victory against 10-man Burnley on Feb. 24. The Eagles have now played 10 league matches with Glasner in charge and the underlying process stats have taken a notable leap. The Eagles have a +0.25 xG difference per 90 minutes, and even if you take out the extra man minutes they are +0.1 per 90. Palace absolutely pass the eye test since Olise and Eze have returned from injury. Their 1-0 defeat at Anfield with 2.0 xG created and their dominant victory against Newcastle at home show the definite progress that they have made.
The Eagles settled for an away draw at Fulham last weekend in the Premier League and struggled to consistently create in that match, but Eze was unavailable. It's hard to understate just how important Eze and Olise are in creating chances for this Palace side. The two midfielders have 22 combined goal contributions and have helped produce in the breakout goalscoring form of Jean-Phillipe Mateta.
Palace have created 1.58 xG per 90 in all 11-on-11 Glasner minutes, which is roughly the same amount as Man United have produced in the same time frame. The ket difference and advantage in this match for Palace is the defense, which remains around league average while United's defense has continued a slide toward a true bottom 3-5 unit in the league.
Harry Maguire picked up an injury and has been ruled out for this match, which leaves United in full desperation mode at center back. Lisandro Martinez and Raphael Varane were the first choice paring, and they've both been out for a while now. First backup options Maguire and Victor Lindelof are out. Jonny Evans is listed as questionable to feature and youngster Willy Kambwala is also now out through injury. Casemiro will have to start at center back and if Evans can't go, the Red Devils will need to push further into the academy to find players to fill that role.
With Luke Shaw also still out, the Red Devils plan to build up in possession really takes a hit. Casemiro himself has been prone to a ton of mistakes in possession all year long, and his ability to cover space without committing a ton of fouls has been one of United's biggest issues defensively all season. The likely midfield pairing of Kobbie Mainoo and Christian Eriksen don't offer a ton of defensive value, as much as their skills complement one another well in actual possession.
In the last 810 minutes of PL soccer (since Feb. 24), no defense in the entire league has conceded more xGA per match than Manchester United's 2.22. The Red Devils have also allowed the second-most shots in the league and are a bottom five set piece defense.
Crystal Palace are a rightful favorite in this match and with some heavier weighting for recent form, I could make Palace as big as a -102 favorite on Monday. The Red Devils still have plenty of attacking ability in transition and the status of Bruno Fernandes is incredibly key toward United having a top 6-7 level attacking side. The Red Devils are at their best playing on the break, but even when scoring goals this season United's defense have been a true bottom five unit that the market has yet to properly adjust for.
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05-06-24 08:16 AM |
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