This will be my first full season of plays for MLB and I would like to come up with a system from which to analyze and make my plays. I have some ideas, but I would love some input and feedback.

I was thinking of taking the top 6-8 most important statistical categories (IMHO) and giving them each a weight. Add up the numbers after weights have been assigned and calculate and compare numbers in a given matchup to see which has the best value. I have not yet done anything with this, but my plan is to test it over the last few seasons and fine tune the results and values necessary for plays.

Statistical Categories:
Teams Winning % with x pitcher on the mound: .2
Overall Team Winning %: .15
Team Batting Avg.: .1
Pitcher's Opponents BAA: .1
Fielding %: .05
Team ERA Per Inning: .15
Runs Per Inning: .15

I may tweak the percentages and the statistical categories later.

Team ERA and Runs are per inning so that all values are between 0-1. This way no single category will be larger than the others so that the distribution is skewed.

Will be testing this all day long today and will be back with an example shortly. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated. This is my first ever attempt at producing a system so take it easy on me if I have crossed any lines here.

GLTA

What would be the best place to quickly find archives of MLB statistics? I am searching the internet but there has to be a quick and easy resourcs.

You can forget all that. It's already incorporated in the line. Here's what's not incorporated in the line that you can track: Unfortunately, going back over past season's results with this is next to impossible without examining every team's boxscore over the course of the season.

Track: Bullpen fatigue and recent effectiveness of both teams. You are essentially looking for situations in which team A's bullpen has been used hard for consecutive days and Team B's bullpen has been relatively rested.

After awhile, you will become familiar with how the manager will use his bullpen. That is, which relievers will be available on a given night and which relievers will not be available. You want a situation in which a team has (a) few relievers available and/or (b) only ineffective relievers available VERSUS a team that has (a) many relievers available and (b) effective relievers available.

The raw number of relievers available is just as important as the effectiveness of the relievers, especially in the Nat. league with no DH. (and that's because the sheer number of moves available to the manager can free-up more pinch hitting). Also, greater numbers allows for crucial late-game lefty-righty situational moves.

In this era, starting pitching doesn't finish anyway and so the bullpens have an ever-increasing role in the outcomes of games. Looking at starting pitching, hitting, fielding, etc. is futile unless you think you are substantially better at it than the linesmaker. "Gaming" a team's starting pitcher or a team's hitting on a given night is a futile quest. GL

Thanks for the input. I have gotten rather frusterated searching through all this data and I think that I am going to take another approach. Thanks again.

just do the chase ..forget all this other ****

can someone please explain the whole idea of the chase to me, i see posts about it a lot, but i have not dealt with one yet

you get 4 chances to make one unit

3 chances to make 1+ units depending on how big of a dog the team is when you hit it.

Basically,

Find a team that will be dog for each game of a 3 or 4 game series.

*Do not play against a team on a 3 or more game win streak
*Do not play against a team that is 7-3 or better in last 10 games
*Do not play ON a team on a 3 or more game loss steak
*Do not play ON a team that is 3-7 or worse in last 10 games

There are a couple of other parameters that are used and I need to look them up once again.....the famous UNDERDOG MASTER system...


whatever happened to him???

How to win big $$ in baseball winning only 33% of the time!
Gentlemen,

Baseball is one of the easiest sports to make money at if you quit chasing away your money playing favorites and start playing dogs.......this system has made me over 6-digits the last two years and will work if you follow my lead..........I will explain how this works and will be somewhat lengthy but worth the reading.

First, please realize that there is way too much emphasis put on starting pitchers in a game......why???.......simple, think about how many games are won in the 8th and 9th innings when the starters are no longer around......enough said!

Second, use the simple mathematical formula by looking at any winning team in the last 30 years, and you will find that even the very best teams hardly ever win more that 67% of their games.....A team that wins 100 games in a season still loses 62!(38%)

Third, use the simple mathematecal formula by looking at any of the worst teams for the last 30 years, and you will find that even the very worst teams win at least 55 games a year! (34%)

Yes, there are a few exceptions to the above but overall have stood the test of time!

In other words, even the very best teams average losing 1 in every three games and even the very worst teams average winning 1 in every 3 games. This will be important later on.

What does all this mean underdog??? I will tell you now!

I call this feature Baseball the Underdog Way!


What I generally look for (with a multitude of variations) is a generally weaker team playing on the road at a .500 or stronger opponent. What this guarantees me is, that my weaker team will be an underdog for all games in the series. I AM COUNTING ON MY WEAKER TEAM TO WIN AT LEAST 1 OF THE GAMES IN THE SERIES. A series is usually 3 games but sometimes can be 4. Once your team wins, you must stop and wait for the next series to begin!

Here is an example of a series:

Tampa Bay @ Ny Yankees

Game 1 NYY -200 Tampa +180
Game 2 NYY -180 Tampa +160
Game 3 NYY -230 Tampa +190


You may start with any bankroll that you wish.....I personally will start with $7000. Divide your starting bankroll by 7 (this example $1000). The reason that you divide by 7 is that if you lose game 1, you double game 2 and if that loses, then you double game 2 amount for game 3.

If you win the first game, stop--you made $1800
If you lose game one, double your bet for game 2 ($2000)
If you win, stop---you made series profit of $2200 ($3200 win for game 2 - game 1 loss of $1000).
If you lose game two, double the amount from game 2 ($4000)
If you win, stop---you made series profit of $4200 ($7200 win for game 3 - game 1 and 2 loss of $3000)
If you lose, sorry to you and me............I have done this for the past 3 years for a total of 162 series---I have won 160 times and got swept all three games twice...........that is some serious winnings.

I use a lot of various factors when choosing the series that I will play....some of those are as follows:

1) Don't play against a team on a winning streak of 3 or more games.
2) Don't play on a team that is on a losing streak of 3 or more.
3) Look at a teams road performance against opponent @ opponents stadium.........some teams have remarkably good or bad history in certain ballparks......I have found a lot of gems this way.
4) Is weather going to be a factor?? ---yes, the weather. I don't worry about 1st game weather only subsequent weather days....because if one game gets cancelled in your series, it may not be made up right away.....I don''t worry about game one, because if that game gets cancelled, then I cancel the series play and wait for next.
5) In general, the team I am playing on, must be at least 4-6 in their last 10 games played and be at least a .400 team on the road or at least a .400 team versus opponent.
6) In general, the team I am playing agaisnt must be no better than 6-4 in their last 10 games played.
7) The team I am playing on, must have at least a .400 winning % versuse the opponent over the last 3 years.
8) As I stated before, these are general guidelines that I use but will very depending on other criteria that may be relevant.


As a favor to all the guys in this forum, I will be posting these series plays every time I am playing one......if you follow my lead, you will make a profit .........again, I am 160-2 over the last 3 years doing this and have gobbled up plenty of profit to show for it!

Make sure that when you bet on these games, that you use a sportsbook that allows you to play "action goes" this simply means that if the game is played, you have it.......a lot of books use starting pitchers only. so if there is a late pitching change, you have a "no action" wager.

NOW GO WIN SOME MONEY!!

Legend like your plan man, but the MLB 4D chase is hard to beat. Last year it was 353-2, and the funny thing is 1 of the 2 chase losses was a dog. The other was a fav! I totally agree with your system though! Dogs are the way to go in baseball if you can figure out when to take them! The MLB is by far the best chase system in any sport that I have found. I did find one in College football using College football news that worked like a charm. I may be on to something in the NBA if you read an earlier post I put in tonight about teasers.

Hello I'm new to the forum and you can take this information for what it is.

I figured out a raod trip system in the NBA that has made me some big bucks this season. First you have to find a team that is going to be on the road for more then 2 consecutive games. Bet 1 unit against them on the first game. If you win then stop, if you lost, then bet 4 units on the third road game. Example:

Sacramento road trip starting on 3/1/06:
Bet 1 unit on Cleveland Lost
Bet 4 units on Washington WON

Portland road trip starting on 3/4/06:
Bet 1 unit on San Antonio WON

This system is no where near as good as 160-2, but it is winning 72.89%.

Hope to be posting some more and thanks for the info on baseball!!

I followed the system that legend posted for the entire year in baseball last year and the results were as follows:

All bets (all dogs) = 90-97

Series Record = 90-12

Units Won = 48.7

Pretty good numbers for me without having to risk the -220 favorites.

Nice first post. Not sure how that works but what is the importance of that 3rd game?

I totally understand.. not knocking Legend's system at all! In fact I may play it if he post all the plays! I did do a quick check of last years -200 + favs and they were 222-93 from the lines I used to check the MLB 4D (from nss.net) that is 70%, won't win you much money playing those lines straight up, but pretty good if you are chasing. The major, major thing with the 4D is money management. You have to be able to withstand some big risks, but the final results will be good if you can do that. Don't start betting a $100 a chase with a bank roll of $1000. You don't have to win as much with Legends Dog system, but takes a little more research to pick dogs! Kudos to Legend for doing that and sharing! The MLB 4D is a yawner, get up, take a pee, grab some coffee update the spreadsheet, and make the picks! By the way, been using some of your system plays and love them! Keep them coming!

for reposting UNDERDOG MASTER"S system.

>>> I figured out a raod trip system in the NBA that has made me some big bucks this season. First you have to find a team that is going to be on the road for more then 2 consecutive games. Bet 1 unit against them on the first game. If you win then stop, if you lost, then bet 4 units on the third road game.


Since Buster won't share his midget right now, I have some time on my hands to test this idea.

For the 2005 to date NBA season, the first 'leg' of this system is 63-51 ATS. Actually this is a little surprising that teams on the first game of a >2 game road trip lose ATS 55% of the time. I might have to go back a few seasons and see how this fares.

The second leg of this system (playing teams to win ATS on a > 2 game road trip in the third game if they lost ATS the first game) is 27-23. Again, this is 55% also.

So there is no advantage to playing one unit on the first leg, or four units on the second leg or vice versa.

I have no idea if this is the biggest coinsidence in the universe, or if there is some universal truth here. I think the fact that Buster may have a barber might be the biggest coinsidence, so maybe this is the second biggest coinsidence in the universe.

I would have to look at several years off data to confirm or deny. Lastly, my odds may be different than yours so your milage may vary (I use wagerline.com final odds for many of my studies).


>>> This system is no where near as good as 160-2, but it is winning 72.89%.

I'm not sure how this conclusion is based, but definatly some interesting stuff here!


Bike

I have all of this season's raodtrip on a speadsheet if anyone wants it, PM me your e-mail address and I will send it to you.

Not sure why it is the third game, but I played around with the system to make it come out in the positive. You could probably narrow it down even more, but I have not thought of anything else.

Legend - I look forward to running with you on the dog chase!

Does anyone know who's running the 4D chase and posting here?

Legend's one involves less overheads

4D chase sometimes will make you near a heart attack situation on big favs chalk 3rd chase and lots more games to play in a day.

you've got mail

Bike