awright, heres what i came up with for a couple of games so far
indians/b-jays based on a projected score i get the b-jays to win 5.37 to 3.32 and after factoring in a few more stats i gave the jays a 57% chance to win. but before i run off to make these guys a play on the run line i isolate the last 3 games for lee and halladay. and if t had to make a bet based on the last 3 games for each pitcher it would have to be lee for the indians by far.
mariners/a's heres another one. based on weavers rd record and haran's hm record the a's project to win the game 6.24 to 2.28 and to win it with a 66% chance. run line here i come, but isolating weavers last 3 games and harans last 3 games, if both pitchers come back to repeat their last 3 then weaver comes out with a substancial edge. no matter how much i want to and with my limited info, weavers coming into this game looking pretty good and fella's every sporting event is an event where its 'strength verus weakness' and i just cant give it to haran and the a's. damn, cant give to weaver either
cubs/pirates. cubs get the score here at 4.63 to 3.66 and a 56 % chance to win. isolating the last 3 games marquis has a 56% edge and at -120 will gain 2.60 cents on the dollar but on the projected score the cubs win by a little less then a full run. it looks like the cubs win this one but it also looks like you might be holding on to the edge of your seats when they hit the bottom of the 9th
mets/astros, the astros have a 53% chance to win this by a scor of 4.10 to 2.84. when projecting the last 3 games for each pitcher they tie at 2.94 t0 2.93 but combined with pelfry's last 3 games rcord of 0-3 and rodriquez last 3 game record of 1-1 then that puts pelfry's chances to win this game at 33%. all toll iam getting the astros with a 60% chance at this game to win by a run maybe 2. its not a bet yet as i'am going to cap a few more games. but the one thing i try to remember is this, its a game of strength versus weakness .