July's MLB Offerings
The 2007 major league baseball campaign is nearing the midpoint of the season with the All-Star break taking place next week. By now we have a good idea of which direction teams are heading in! Boston, Los Angeles Angels and Milwaukee are all holding commanding leads in their chase for division honors, and there are at this moment in time, only five spots up for grabs for October playing time.
So how best can we utilize July games to our advantage?
Let's start off with a 'totals' situation which is pertinent for just one day of the month. It must be noted the 'under' has held a distinct advantage in the first game back after the All-Star break, as is evident by a 56-31-2 O/U record spanning the period 2000 to 2006.
The 'under' has proved profitable probably due to the fact that the majority of the teams lineups are rusty or still a little lethargic after having a few days off.
Here are a few more interesting trends from the month of July.
July underdogs of +150 or more, with a starting pitcher who has a winning percentage under 20% on the season are just 4-35 since 1998.
July home teams with a starting pitcher who owns a 1.50 to 1.65 WHIP with a line of +125 to -125 are 32-10 L/42 opportunities.
July road favorites of -125 to -175 inclusive with a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or higher on the season are just 40-57 since 1998.
National League teams in July lined between -100 to -150 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or lower on the season are 36-64 since 2000.
July underdogs of +125 to +175 with a bullpen that averages 2.75 or less innings per game are 27-11 last 5 seasons.
Remember the above situations are not to be used as the only reason to wager on any sporting event, and should only be used as another tool in the overall selection process