Juventus will open up their Champions League campaign when they host Dutch champions PSV at the Allianz Stadium.

Juventus are back in the Champions League after a one year absence with a new manager and new identity. Thiago Motta takes over after an impressive season at Bologna to try and turn Juventus back into one of the elites in Europe. They struggled on the weekend against Empoli, drawing 0-0, and they will have to be much better offensively to get all three points.

This is the second consecutive season in the Champions League for PSV after making it to the round of 16 last year. They comfortably won the Eredivisie in Peter Bosz's first season in charge, but they showed in the Champions League that things are a lot more difficult that they are in the Netherlands.

Thiago Motta has taken over at Juventus, but there is one key aspect that has remained the same. They are one of the better low block defending teams in the world. So far through four Serie A matches they have not conceded a goal and have allowed a total of 1.4 expected goals.

That is not surprising given the defensive set up Motta had with Bologna. Like Allegri, Motta doesn’t really believe in pressing opponents high and instead looks to set his team up in a good defensive shape with the aim of limiting opponents to the lowest quality shots possible. His Bologna team only allowed an xG per shot of 0.08, which was third-lowest in Serie A. So the same defensive concepts and even structure hasn’t really changed from Allegri’s team that only allowed 0.73 npxG per 90 minutes.

In possession, Motta’s build up structure is quite interesting, as he is a big believer in relationism, which is essentially positionless football, trying to get as many players close to the ball to ensure you always are, overloading the opposition through each phase of build up.

There are a couple of issues with it, though. First, the pace of it is really slow. Because you are relying on a lot of short passes, there aren’t many quick direct balls being played forward to open up the defense. In addition to that, oftentimes you have too many guys in one area of the pitch, so the ball goes backwards and they have to start over. Second, it’s very hard to find space and overload defenses once you reach the final third. Juventus are already struggling to steadily create chances, as they’re averaging under one expected goal per 90 minutes, which is the same problem Bologna had.

PSV are the Dutch champions and it really all comes down to Peter Bosz’s tactics. He wants his teams to play as fast as possible with their transitions, using vertical passes to try and put pressure on the opposing back line. He encourages his fullbacks to push up and overlap, which allows PSV to overload the last line of defense.

When PSV are out of possession, they are one of the most aggressive pressing teams in Europe. He adopts the same principles of gegenpressing as Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool, trying to win the ball back as fast as possible when they lose it. To think they are going to go to Turin and play that type of style is another story. We’ve seen this before when they played Arsenal out of the gates in the Champions League last year and failed to do anything offensively, creating 0.5 expected goals.

What we have seen from Bosz in the Champions League specifically is he mainly wants his teams to try to create 3 v 2 or 2 v 1 overloads out wide to try and attack the space and send in crosses. Good luck doing that against Juventus, who have a 65% defensive aerial duel win rate so far this season.

PSV are going to want to push the tempo in this match, but I don't think Juventus are going to let them do that. Even if PSV decide to consistently press high, the Juventus build up is slow and they have shown so far that they are just as inefficient in the final third as Thiago Motta's Bologna were last season.

Motta is also not a big believer in pressing teams high. He would much rather have his team in a really solid mid to low defensive block, which has been really successful to begin this season considering they have not conceded a goal yet.

While PSV put up incredible offensive numbers in the Eredivisie, they have shown in the Champions League that they are not as good. They couldn't really find a way through a poor Dortmund defense in the round of 16 last year and I think they will have similar struggles on Tuesday.

Although Juventus’ style of play has changed, they are still playing extremely low-event matches, so I don’t think the under should be at plus money.

Liverpool are back in the Champions League after a one year absence, opening up their campaign against AC Milan on Tuesday.

AC Milan have had a rough start to their season winning just one of their first four matches. Paulo Fonscea is now in charge after spending two successful seasons at Lille. AC Milan are coming off a second place finish in Serie A and making the quarterfinals of the Europa League, but given the investment made into the squad, they will be hoping for a much deeper run in Europe this season.

Liverpool suffered their first blemish of the Arne Slot era, losing to Nottingham Forest 1-0 at home this weekend. Liverpool had been brilliant before the international break, but struggled to generate chances against a really good defensive side, which may have fans worried a little bit as they begin their Champions League campaign. Liverpool got a really tough draw in the Champions League so it's important that they start things off with a good result.

AC Milan's beginning to the Paulo Fonseca era hasn't really gone very well. The reason for that is they have a little bit of a different defensive structure than they did under Stefano Pioli. Last year they were very much a man to man marking team all over the pitch, while Fonseca wants them to have a little bit more of a zonal structure.

Under Fonseca so far, it's been a bit more of a passive approach sitting in a 5-3-2 or 5-4-1 structure and relying on triggers to know when to press their opponent. The defensive numbers have not been good, and a lot of that has to do with the change in defensive identity. They are allowing 1.26 npxG per 90 minutes through four matches, which isn't all that impressive given the opponents they've faced. With that being said, a passive defensive approach is the way to play against Arne Slot's Liverpool, as Nottingham Forest showed over the weekend.

Fonseca at Lille wanted his team to play out of the back, but they were very versatile when they were in possession. Lille did have the second-most 10+ pass sequences in Ligue 1 behind only PSG and that has not changed so far, as AC Milan have attempted the fourth-most passes in Serie A. Fonseca typically has his team build up in a 3-2-5 structure with the aim at overloading the middle of the pitch. Noah Okafor is the key to all of this working because Jonathan David at Lille was so good at knowing when to drop deep and when to make runs off the back line. Okafor is young and so far hasn't taken to role effectively yet, as he's only created 0.7 expected goals in four starts.

AC Milan will have to take more direct approach in this match, which Fonseca's Lille were pretty effective at in Ligue 1 and in the Europa Conference League last season, but doing that against Liverpool's defense is another story.

Liverpool look a lot different under Arne Slot, but Saturday against Nottingham Forest showed some of the flaws of his in possession system.

Nottingham Forest sat very passively in a low defensive block for the entire match and cut off Liverpool from play through the middle of the pitch. That meant that the Reds needed to create overloads and chances from wide areas, which they were not able to do. In the end, Liverpool were only able to create 0.9 expected goals off of 14 shots and only two of their shots had an xG rating higher than 0.10.

Arne Slot is valuing control much more than Jurgen Klopp did. He is typically having his team build up in a 3-2-5 structure with Trent Alexander-Arnold inverting into the midfield to be the main conductor of the entire build up. It's been working against teams like Ipswich Town and Manchester United, who tried to press them, but for teams that sit back they have found some difficulties in creating chances.

That is because Slot hasn't completely taken Liverpool's identity away. He still wants them to play direct and look to hit teams quickly, which is why they were one of the best offensive teams in the world under Klopp. The question is when teams don't allow them to play direct, can they continually create high quality chances?

The biggest change for Liverpool has come defensively. They aren’t counter-pressing with reckless abandon and are always making sure they don’t get overloaded in transition and have at least five guys back to stop the opposing counterattack. So far they have only conceded one goal and 2.8 expected goals through four matches, so AC Milan are likely going to struggle to create chances.

The totals in Liverpool matches still haven't adjusted to the new way they have been playing. All four of their Premier League matches have gone under the closing number and the market continues to set totals as if it's Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool.

AC Milan are without a doubt going to take the blueprint that Nottingham Forest laid out, sit deep and try to close off the middle of the pitch. If they are able to do that, I think Liverpool are going to find it just as difficult to create chances as they did over the weekend.

Liverpool should be able to keep out this AC Milan team that really doesn't have an attack that can hurt them when they play direct. In addition to that, nobody in Serie A presses any more, so when Liverpool do decide to press Milan's build up, I don't think Fonseca's side is going to have a lot of success.

For the first time since the 1982-83 season, Aston Villa will be playing a match in the Champions League. Traveling to Switzerland, the Villains will look to perform and maintain their status as a team to be reckoned with. Believe it or not, Aston Villa won the Champions League, or should I say the European Cup, back in the 1981-82 season.

Young Boys, a team we’ve probably all heard of by now, is looking to make their first ever appearance in the knockout stage of the Champions League after failing to do so in the 2018-19 and 2021-22 season.

BSC Young Boys currently sit in last place in the Swiss Super League table with no tally in the win column. They have three draws and three losses on the season. Somehow they managed to beat Galatasaray on an aggregate score of 4-2 for a spot in the Champions League. It's seemingly a tale of two teams when you compare Young Boys’ success in their domestic league against their success in European competition.

Young Boys have scored seven goals in the Super League, with two of their goals being awarded from their opponents in the form of an own goal. On top of this, Young Boys currently hold a -7 goal differential in the Super League, while averaging around 59% possession of the ball in their matches.

Aston Villa have had a strong start to the Premier League season, winning three games out of four and losing to Arsenal at the Emirates. One player who has had a less than ideal start to their season is Ollie Watkins. Watkins has only managed to score once, totaling 10 shots in those matches. Villa have had to rely elsewhere for the goal-scoring chances, and one player who has certainly been making the most of his chances is Colombian striker Jhon Duran.

Duran is currently tied for second in the Premier League for most goals with three, scoring in three separate matches as a late-game substitute. Midfield production has also been a key factor in Villa’s early success this season, with new-signing Amadou Onana picking up where he left off in his previous season at Everton, finally shining for all to see with a new team with higher quality players. The balance in style with his new partner, Youri Tielemans, seems to be working better than expected for Unai Emery. Onana is the team's second highest goal-scorer behind Duran with two goals on the season.


One player on Young Boys that interests me is Congolese striker Silvere Ganvoula. Ganvoula is responsible for three of the five goals that their team actually scored in addition to one assist. In the Champions League, Ganvoula averages 3.5 shots per match, which could prove to be an issue for Aston Villa’s somewhat leaky defense. Aston Villa currently hold a +1 goal differential in the Premier League, conceding goals to below-average offenses in West Ham, Leicester City and Everton.

That being said, Aston Villa’s xG in matches against similar opponents in the past calendar year (Luton Town and Sheffield) has been as low as 1.99 goals (Luton Town) and as high as 2.49 goals (Sheffield). With these statistics in mind, I think backing the both teams to score market

Real Madrid open up their title defense at the Santiago Bernabéu when they host Stuttgart.

Things have not gone as swimmingly as they should be going for Real Madrid this season in La Liga. They have drawn two of their first five matches, which is a big disappointment. This is supposed to be the new Galaticos with Kylian Mbappe joining an already incredible squad, so they will want to get their Champions League campaign off on the right foot on Tuesday.

Stuttgart had a historic season in 2023-24, finishing in third place in the Bundesliga to get back to the Champions League for the first time in 14 years. They had to replace a lot of key players from last years team and the beginning of the Bundesliga season has not gone well for them. So, getting at type of result in this match would be a massive achievement.

Real Madrid are an incredibly dangerous team, not because they have some revolutionary tactics, but because they possess more individual quality that any team in the world. Carlo Ancelotti is the perfect manager for this type of team because he sets them up perfectly to take advantage of that individual quality.

They use a ton of different build up structures depending on the opponent they are facing. If they face a team that likes to press high like Stuttgart, they will look to play more direct with long balls up the forwards who are in 1 v 1 situations with the opposing defender with Bellingham and Valverde making late runs behind the defense to create an opportunity. If they face a team that is passive, they will often times use combination passing to open up the space and because of their individual quality they are more likely to overperfrom their underlying metrics.

Out of possession, Real Madrid are not a team that really likes to press high. Instead, Ancelotti favors a more compact defensive structure where Real Madrid try to deny opponents space through the middle of the pitch. What they have drastically improved at over the years is defending in transition. Now that they have a midfield of Tchouaméni, Bellingham and Valverde, they have three of the best ball winners in the world along with a rock solid center back pairing. So far this season in La Liga they have only conceded 3.8 expected goals in five matches and last year only allowed 0.91 npxG per 90 minutes.

So how did Sttugart have a meteoric rise up the Bundesliga table? Two words: Sebastian Hoeneß. Their manager has revolutionized the team and made them one of the more difficult teams to face in Germany. The reason for that is his variability in how he sets up his team.

Stuttgart use a ton of different build up formations depending on the opponent they are going to face. When they are building up from deep they are often using a 4-2-4 shape with the two forwards dropping deep to pull the opposing center backs with them to create an over the top ball to the wingers making inverted runs, which is very similar to Roberto De Zerbi's Brighton. In addition to that they are very aggressive with their passing in possession, always looking to open up the defense. Last season, nobody in the Bundesliga attempted more through balls than Stuttgart and they were third in the Bundesliga in progressive passes behind only Bayern Munich and Leverkusen.

Then the summer came and a lot of key players went out the door. The biggest loss was their start striker Serhou Guirassy, who scored 28 goals domestically last season. They did retain Deniz Undav, who tallied 18 goals, and bought Ermedin Demirović from Augsburg to help their attack from completely falling off.

The biggest losses came in defense as they lost both of their starting center backs, Waldemar Anton and Hiroki Ito. The loss of the two has been felt big time early on in the season, as they have already conceded six expected goals in their first three matches.

This is a bad situation for Stuttgart coming into this match. They are a team that is very aggressive with their high press and counter-pressing when they don't have the ball. They were successful with it last season because they had that elite center back pairing that cleaned up a lot balls over the top of their high defensive line. Now that they don't have them, they are going to continue to struggle and facing Real Madrid, who are comfortable playing direct with the individual quality they have, is a nightmare.

Although Real Madrid haven't really gotten off the mark in La Liga, they are largely facing teams who are going to just sit deep in a defensive block and try to limit them to low quality chances. That's not in the DNA of Stuttgart, so I think Real Madrid's offense should score multiple goals here.

Odds to win Champions League


Man City +275
Real Madrid +333
Arsenal +800
Bayern Munich +1200
Liverpool +1200
FC Barcelona +1200
PSG +2000
Bayer Leverkusen +2000
Inter Milan +2000
Athletico Madrid +2500
Juventus +3300

35% of money (most) is on Real Madrid to win at BetMGM

Bologna begin their Champions League campaign when they host Shakhtar Donetsk at the Renato Dall'Ara Stadium.

Bologna had a meteoric rise up the Serie A table to finish in fifth place and earn a spot in the Champions League. This is their first time being in a European competition since 2000, but they are entering with a different team and manager from last season. With the new league phase, these types of matches are incredibly important for both teams if they want to make the round of 16.

Shakhtar have been a mainstay in the Champions League, as this is now their eighth straight year in the Champions League. However, they have only made it to the knockout stage one time in those eight years. They are struggling early on in the Ukrainian Premier League, so this is a good opportunity to steer the ship in the right direction.

Bologna are not the team that finished fifth in Serie A last year, but they aren’t significantly different. Losing manager Thiago Motta, star striker Joshua Zirkzee and their best defender Riccardo Calafiori definitely hurts, but the rest of the team is still in tact.

Vincenzo Italiano did a masterful job with Fiorentina in Europe bringing them to back to back Europa Conference League finals, and his style of play isn’t a whole lot different than what Bologna were already doing tactically. He wants his teams to build out of the back in a 3-2 or 4-2 shape and they were really effective, getting the ball into teams' final third and controlling matches. Fiorentina had the best field tilt in Serie A and also was third in xThreat.

They made a really good signing to replace Zirkzee by bringing in Thijs Dallinga from Toulouse. Last season in Ligue 1 he scored 14 goals and had a 0.51 xG per 90 minute scoring rate.

Things have been a big up and down for them in Serie A this season, as they've drawn three of their first four matches and are sitting near the relegation zone. However, they have a +0.8 xGD so far, so the underlying performances are still good and the positive regression will come. That creates a positive note heading into this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bologna match.

Shakhtar have had a pretty rough start to the Ukrainian Premier League, as they’ve already lost two matches and are sitting in the middle of the table. Marino Pusic took over midway through the season last year and was actually in charge for their final four Champions League matches. He got a historic win over Barcelona at home and also got all three points against Antwerp, but in their two away matches against Barcelona and Porto they got hammered.

That has been a running theme for Shakhtar because they have not fared well away from home in the Champions League over the years. In the last three seasons, they have played 11 matches away from home and have a -12 expected goal differential. In fact, of those 12 matches, they have only won the expected goals battle once and it was against Antwerp last season.

This is essentially the same team that was in the Champions League last season, as Shakhtar didn't make any significant moves in the transfer market. In addition to that, under Pusic they only had a +0.80 xGD per 90 minutes in the Ukrainian Premier League, which is the 21st-most difficult league in Europe.

This is a good buy low spot on Bologna. Losing two of your best players and the best manager in the clubs history without a doubt stings, but the core of the squad is still in tact. In addition to that, Vincenzo Italiano's tactics aren't a whole lot different than Thiago Motta's so I am expecting Bologna to be able to control this match and tilt the field on Shakhtar.

Shaktar have proven for a long time now that they aren't that great away in Europe. They've been displaced for a long time because of the ongoing war with Russia and adding long travel on top of that just seems to really have a big effect.

PSG and Girona open their Champions League campaigns on Wednesday night in their match day 1 fixture at the Parc des Princes.

The French club has gotten off to a great start this season even after the departure of its star strikers in the summer.

Meanwhile, the Spanish side makes its debut in the UCL after finishing in third in La Liga last season.

This stadium has been a fortress in recent years of this competition, and I believe this will be another win for the home side.

In what seemed like the worst-kept secret, Kylian Mbappé finally left PSG in the summer and took his talents to Real Madrid. Manuel Ugarte was another key departure who is now at Manchester United.

Luis Enrique elected to go with younger signings to bring in the next generation at the club. So far, it has been successful.

PSG have won all four of their games in Ligue 1, averaging four goals per match and scoring at least three in every victory.

The French league has been one that is typically not the most competitive, especially compared to the Spanish top flight. So, it will be interesting to see how the new-look PSG handle the step up in competition.

It was a sensational season for Girona in 2023-24, and it helped the club secure its first-ever qualification for this tournament.

However, there were some key departures from the squad that I’m not sure have been replaced. The primary changes come in the forward line with both Artem Dovbyk and Savinho.

The duo combined for 35 goals and 20 assists in all competitions, and Dovbyk won the Golden Boot by finishing with the most goals in La Liga.

Even with the losses to the squad, this should be an exciting club that tends to play an attacking style.

In this competition, I’m always looking to back PSG at home based on how tough it is for visitors to get a result. It just comes down to picking the right option.

So, my best bet is a single game parlay, pairing a Paris Saint-Germain win with the total flying over two goals at -138. I would bet this up to -145.

If you start first with the French giant, this same play has cashed in every game so far. This includes a pair of wins against Lille and Brest, who are both in this competition.

Meanwhile, it is also a fade of a Girona team that struggles on the road against top teams. Against the other UCL Spanish sides last season away from home, Girona owned a -4.1 xGDiff and allowed over three expected goals per match, according to fbref.com.

The same issue has happened already in this campaign as well. Girona were dominated over the weekend at home by Barcelona in a 4-1 loss, which follows a 3-0 defeat at Atlético Madrid a few weeks ago.

You also have to look at how dominant PSG have been at home in the Champions League. Since the 2012-13 season, Paris Saint Germain have only lost one of their 36 home games in the group stage of this competition.

Man City will be playing their first match in the 2024-25 Champions League season against a familiar opponent: Inter Milan. These two teams met each other in the 2022-23 Champions League final, where City were victorious and cemented their status as Europe’s mightiest squad.

The Cityzens have started their year in the Premier League how everyone would have expected, four wins in four matches. With no clear end in sight for the dominance Manchester City have had in the footballing world, this appears to be another 90-point season in the making.

Inter Milan have also had a good start to their season in Serie A. Remaining unbeaten with two wins and two draws, Simone Inzaghi and his team look to become back-to-back champions of Serie A, a feat that hasn’t been done by Inter since the 2009-10 season.

City have cruised through their first four matches, winning all four and scoring 11 goals while only conceding three. In those first four games, Erling Haaland has managed to net 2 hat-tricks against Ipswich Town and West Ham. Shocking. The Norwegian already has the fourth-most hat-tricks in Premier League history with eight, and it only took him 69 games to do it.. If you do the math, that means he scores a hat-trick every nine games. By himself, he has already out-scored every single team in the league, with the closest being Chelsea who have scored eight total goals as a team.

City’s first match of the season at Chelsea has easily been their toughest opponent, and while City were able to walk out of Stamford bridge with two goals and three points, they didn’t do it in the prettiest way. Inter will definitely be the biggest test for Man City, and with a match against Arsenal on Sunday, I don’t see them coming out firing on all cylinders. Another thing to note about City’s performance is that City have also conceded the first goal in three straight matches, two of which occurred in the first 10 minutes.

Inter Milan have looked sharp in their first four matches of the season, and they are more than capable of giving Manchester City problems when it comes to creating chances. Inter have only conceded three goals in the Serie A this season, as Inzaghi’s 5-3-2 has proven to be a difficult setup to break down.

But Manchester City know all about that, as they only created 0.9 xG in the Champions League final from two years ago, and they only allowed seven shots. With this in mind after hearing about the dominance Haaland is having playing teams that aren’t Inter Milan, this is very impressive. One player I credit highly to the success of this style of play from Inter is midfielder Nicolo Barella. A true jack-of-all-trades in the center of the park, along with help from his creative counterparts in Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Hakan Calhanoglu, he makes this midfield one of the most complete trios in all of Europe. Inter also signed a new goal scoring threat in Marcus Thuram who leads the Serie A in goals this season with four goals in four matches.

Despite all of the emphasis on goal scoring I mentioned from City, I don’t expect Inter Milan vs Man City to be a shootout. City have their biggest match of the Premier League season coming up four days after this bout with Inter, and Inter’s manager Simone Inzaghi likely will not implement a heavy attacking style. I don’t think these teams are all that different from their clash in the Champions League final from two years ago, and that match finished 1-0.

I think the under 2.5 at +125 is good value. That being said, I also think that a very fun bet to sprinkle on an 11-20 min 1st goal interval. City have scored five goals in this time period while conceding one in their four Premier League matches this season, and Inter have conceded one goal in this time period but have also scored in the fifth and 10th minute of a match in Serie A this season.

Inter are a really difficult team to beat and City found that out first hand in the Champions League final. They had a superb defensive performance in that match, holding Manchester City to just seven shots and 0.78 expected goals. Not only that, but they didn’t let Manchester City live inside their final third. Manchester City only had a field tilt of 52% and an expected threat of 0.87.

The reason Inter are so difficult to play through is because of their ball winning and defensive shape. They will typically play out of a 5-3-2 and do a masterful job at not letting teams play through the middle, which is what Manchester City want to do. The two forwards will cover any easy passes to the midfield, while the three midfielders will stay incredibly narrow to prevent any type of midfield overload. The wingbacks are also really good in 1 v 1 defending and Inter’s center backs are really good at knowing when to jump and win the ball when opponents try to make a line-breaking pass.

Last season in Serie A, they only allowed 0.74 npxG per 90 minutes, which was one of the best marks in Europe’s top five leagues. Inter didn’t lose anybody from the core of their squad during the summer, so they are going to be just as good if not better defensively.

The champions of the Bundesliga, Bayer Leverkusen, will be traveling to Rotterdam on Thursday to take on Feyenoord in their opening fixture in the 2024-25 Champions League season.

Coming off an impressive season in the Bundesliga, Bayer Leverkusen were able to end Bayern Munich’s 11-year streak of winning the Bundesliga. Xabi Alonso has done a fantastic job so far with his new team, leading them to an unbeaten season in his second year.

Feyenoord parted ways with their previous manager, Arne Slot, who’s trying to fill the shoes of Liverpool’s previous manager, Jurgen Klopp. For the 2024-25 season, Feyenoord appointed Brian Priske to assume the club’s managerial duties. So far, Priske has remained unbeaten in the Eredivisie with three draws and a win.

Coping with the loss of Arne Slot, Feyenoord find themselves in eighth place in the Eredivisie table. The jury is still out on the ceiling of this Feyenoord side with Priske at the helm. In the mid to long term, I think they should be alright. But in the short-term, this team may go through some growing pains in order to be a lock for a top three finish like they were with Slot.

One big positive that Feyenoord have shown this season is the bite that their offense plays with. Feyenoord have scored first in 100% of their matches, which sounds an awful lot like their German opponents, who also usually find themselves on the board first. Feyenoord are averaging 2.25 goals/match this season in the Eredivisie, while also conceding 1.25 goals/match, which seems to highlight the biggest strength, offensive output and their biggest weakness, defensive consistency, perfectly.

Coming off a historic season, Bayer Leverkusen look to keep up their success in both the Bundesliga, and now the Champions League. After an unbeaten season in the Bundesliga, Bayer Leverkusen also found themselves in the final of the Europa league, but they surprisingly lost by a score of 3-0 to Italian side Atalanta.

Luckily for Alonso, he has managed to keep his key players that were largely responsible for the club's massive success last season, most notably Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Jonathan Tah and Edmond Tapsoba. One thing that’s worth noting about Leverkusen is how dangerous they appear to be at securing early leads.

This was something that they definitely improved on compared to last season, where Leverkusen often came from behind to win their games. This season, they have been much more effective at scoring first. However this season, Leverkusen haven’t been the greatest at keeping it. This season against Leipzig for example, Leverkusen jumped out to a first half lead of 2-0, but they conceded three goals, one in the seventh minute of added time in the first half, and two in the second half. They lost this match 3-2. Keeping in mind the offensive threat that Feyenoord play with, we could see some action throughout this match.

Both of these teams like to play quicker than the average team in Europe, and they aren’t exactly the most consistent defensively. Especially with how good Leverkusen are at build-up play with the likes of Florian Wirtz, and electrifying wingbacks Jeremie Frimpong and Alex Grimaldo, this could spell some serious defensive problems for Priske’s Feyenoord, who appear to play a zonal man-to-man style of defense.

Coupled with Leverkusen’s lack of poise when playing with a lead, which they should likely have at some point in this match, this could lead to a barrage of goals.

The Serbian champion is back in the competition for the second straight season and for the fourth time in the last seven years.

Meanwhile, the Portuguese club made a deep run in the Europa League last campaign after finishing third in its UCL group.

This match may not have the star power like others in this tournament, but it doesn’t mean there isn’t betting value on the board to cash a winning ticket.

In the middle of last season, Red Star brought back a former manager Vladan Milojević. He was last at the club in the 2020 season and hasn’t had much success since he left.

However, he did have a great tenure in Serbia during his time. In fact, his squad stunned Liverpool with an upset in this competition in 2019.

As for this season, it has been a solid start for Milojević’s team, winning 7-of-9 matches in all competitions. Red Star qualified for the Champions League by defeating Norwegian club Bodø/Glimt 3-2 over two legs.

Red Star are led in attack by Brazilian Bruno Duarte and Senegal international Cherif Ndiaye. The duo has combined for eight goals and three assists in the Serbian SuperLiga, and the two need to have a big game here.

This has already been an interesting campaign at Benfica. After just four games, the club sacked the manager to bring in a former one in Bruno Lage.

The former Wolves coach did lead the time to fantastic results domestically during his tenure. The 2018-19 Benfica side racked up 103 goals, tying a club record and the best mark since the 1963-64 campaign.

His first match back in Portugal was a dominant victory, and Lage inherits a team that has a mix of veterans and newcomers.

Some of the mainstays that most fans recognize are Ángel Di María and defender Nicolás Otamendi. With the club splashing the cash to bring in Greek forward Vangelis Pavlidis in the summer, it will be interesting to see what Lage can do in his return.

If everything was going smoothly at Benfica, it wouldn’t be changing its manager just a month into the new season. Now, oddsmakers are expecting the team to go on the road in the Champions League and get a win in Benfica vs Red Star Belgrade.

I’m just not buying it. So, my best bet is to back Red Star Belgrade on the handicap of +0.5 at -101, which I would bet to -120.

For me, Benfica are a club that has just lost too much talent in recent years, and I’m not sure it has done enough to replace the departures. It is also a team I prefer to back at home.

I also believe Lage can do a good enough job domestically. However, he isn’t someone that I would be expecting to lead a team in this competition.

We’ve seen in recent years how difficult it can be to play at the Rajko Mitić Stadium for visitors, and I think the home side can avoid defeat here.

One of the less-discussed aspects of the new Champions League format is the increased probability of previously unseen matchups it brings.

With four additional clubs reaching the league phase of the competition and every team facing eight different opponents — as opposed to just three in the old group stage — we're sure to get a few unique contests. While a lot of these will occur between teams drawn from Pot 3 and especially Pot 4, there is also the occasional first meeting between teams in Pots 1 and 2.

This fixture is one such example. The Gunners have made a number of trips to Milan to face the Rossoneri and Nerazzurri, but they've never traveled 30 miles east to square off with Atalanta in Bergamo.

La Dea finished the 2023/24 campaign flying high. They triumphed over Bayer Leverkusen in the Europa League final, claiming their first continental trophy in club history and becoming the only team to defeat Die Werkself the entire year.

Their start to the follow-up act hasn't been as spectacular. Midfield lynchpin Teun Koopmeiners departed for Juventus, and although falling to Real Madrid in the UEFA Super Cup was understandable, the 2-1 loss at Torino and 4-0 shellacking by Inter at San Siro were less so. Granted, Gian Piero Gasperini had just one fit center back at his disposal for that Inter clash, and his players did rebound after the international break with a close win against Fiorentina. Currently, Atalanta sit ninth in Serie A after four matches.

On the injury front, starting striker Gianluca Scamacca and center back Giorgio Scalvini are out, but having someone like Mateo Retegui to cover for the former is a luxury only Champions League clubs can afford. Otherwise, there won't be too much mystery when it comes to Atalanta's approach to this match. Gasperini and co. have an extremely recognizable identity that starts with their man-to-man high press and just general intensity through all phases. Against an opponent like Arsenal, there might be more of an emphasis on sitting in a 5-2-3 mid/low block, but they have the transitional threat, namely Ademola Lookman, to make that work.

These past few weeks have not been kind to Arsenal. They're dealing with a number of new injury issues, most notably to Martin Odegaard along with summer signings Mikel Merino and Riccardo Calafiori. The timing of these absences has been atrocious too, as they had the North London derby last Sunday, now have this fixture and then travel to the Etihad this weekend to face the reigning Premier League champions.

A lot of the negative vibes were erased after Mikel Arteta and co. ground out a 1-0 win at Tottenham, and now Declan Rice has served his one-match suspension — though that wouldn't have impacted his ability to feature in this one. However, Bukayo Saka did go off with a knock in that match, but he was back in training on Wednesday, so he'll almost certainly be starting again here.

Depending on the statuses of his hurt players and with a game of such high magnitude just three days later, it's hard to know what exactly Arteta will do with his starting XI. He'd ideally like to give Jurrien Timber some rest, but if Riccardo Calafiori isn't ready to start after returning from injury, the Dutchman might keep his place at left back. The Arsenal boss does have some more flexibility with replacing Odegaard, who will be out for around eight weeks, as Kai Havertz, Ethan Nwaneri and Saka are all capable of filling that role.

As always, there's no doubting Arsenal's quality, and no matter what the starting lineup and bench look like, there will be the expectation that this is a match they can and should win.

The amount of doubt surrounding the health of Arsenal's squad combined with the context of this game puts a lot of value on Atalanta's moneyline. The Bergamo club will be hosting a big European name and has shown in the past they can disrupt and overcome opponents they're pretty clearly inferior to. On the other side, the Gunners are coming off an emotional victory and have a fixture with massive implications on the Premier League title following this one, so I do worry about how "ready" they'll be to play here.

Additionally, about a year ago, Arsenal traveled to France to face Lens and lost 2-1. With the support of a raucous atmosphere, Lens deployed a similar 3-4-3/5-2-3 setup, at least out of possession, to what Atalanta will put out, and that really caused the London club problems.