Patriots @ Jets (-6.5)
Patriots (1-1)
Patriots ran ball for 170-185 yards in splitting first two games.
Opponents ran ball for 70-46 yards.
Team total: over 1-0-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1

New England is 10-12 ATS last 22 games as a road underdog.
Last three years, Patriots are 0-3 SU/ATS in home openers.
New England is 10-8 ATS in last 18 AFC East road games.
Patriots QB Brissett is 19-31 as an NFL starter.

Jets (1-1)
Jets split first two games, both on road (over 2-0)
Jets were held to 266/265 yards in first two games.
Jets converted 11 of 22 third down plays.
49ers outrushed them 180-68 Monday night.
Team total: over 1-0-1
Opponents’ team total: over 1-1

Under Saleh, Jets are 11-15 ATS at home
Since 2021, Jets are 5-11-1 ATS coming off a win.
Rodgers is 160-86-1 as an NFL starter.
Under is 11-6 in their last 17 home games.

New England won 23 of last 26 series games.
Patriots are 5-1 ATS in last six visits to the Garden State.
Under is 5-0 in last five meetings.

The Patriots are 14-1 straight-up and 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 meetings with the Jets. However, New York won the most recent game between these two, earning a 17-3 win as a 2.5-point underdog in Foxborough. And the reality is that you can’t put much stock into the recent head-to-head history between these teams. A lot of those games were played with the Patriots as perennial Super Bowl contenders and the Jets as NFL bottom dwellers. Now, New York is the team with real short-term aspirations, as Aaron Rodgers and Co. are hoping to make the playoffs and then make a little noise. Meanwhile, the Patriots are in for a somewhat lengthy rebuild with Jerod Mayo in for Bill Belichick as head coach — and backup Drake Maye hoping to be the long-term answer to replacing Tom Brady at quarterback.

So far this season, despite having different paths forward, these teams haven’t been all that different. Both of these teams enter Week 3 at 1-1. And according to nfelo, New England has a Net EPA of +0.09 and New York has a Net EPA of -0.01. The difference is that the Patriots have been slightly above average offensively, while being a touch below average defensively. The exact opposite is true of the Jets.

As far as breaking down the matchup goes, it’s hard to imagine the Jets losing this game outright. Both of these teams want to run the ball and put trust in their defenses. But late in a close game, how can you not trust Rodgers over Jacoby Brissett — especially with this being the Jets home opener? That’s ultimately the big difference between these two. But is the difference big enough to back New York? Probably not. In fact, if this spread gets to 7, I’ll be jumping on the Patriots. As of now, it’s a slight lean towards New England +6.5. The Patriots are getting a lot of points for a game with a total below 40, and it’s never a bad idea to jump on the underdog in situations like these.

Overall, it’s just hard to see either one of these offenses making big enough plays for this thing to turn into a higher scoring game. The Under is also 6-3-1 in the 10 games the Jets have played as favorites under head coach Robert Saleh, and it’s also 13-5 in the 18 games that New York has played against AFC East opponents in that span.

Early Jets-Patriots betting at BetMGM

Jets open -6.5, no movement
▪️ 41% of bets, 54% of money on Jets

Total open 39, now 38.5
▪️ 59% of bets, 54% of money on Under

Patriots open +185, now +220
▪️ 59% of bets, 36% of money on Patriots

Most bet (tickets) Jets-Patriots player props at BetMGM

1. Rhamondre Stevenson over 15.5 rush attempts

2. Garrett Wilson over 65.5 receiving yards

3. Breece Hall over 30.5 receiving yards

4. Stevenson over 65.5 rush yards