Houston Texans (-2.5, 46.5) at Minnesota Vikings

The Texans (2-0) just brushed aside the Bears 19-13 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (2-0) just took down the 49ers 23-17, winning outright as 4.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Houston listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the short chalk with the Texans. However, despite receiving 61% of spread bets we’ve seen Houston fall from -3.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Minnesota, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular side. The Vikings are only receiving 39% of spread bets but 47% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. When two undefeated teams face off in Week 3, the home dog is 9-4 ATS (69%) since 2007. Those interested in following the sharp Vikings move but looking to gain some added security could instead entertain Minnesota in a “Wong Teaser” (+2.5 to +8.5), which passes through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7. C.J. Stroud is 5-2 ATS (71%) as a dog but just 3-7 ATS (30%) as a favorite in his career.

Detroit Lions (-3, 52.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Lions (1-1) are coming off a 20-16 loss to the Buccaneers, losing outright as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Cardinals (1-1) just demolished the Rams 41-10, easily covering as 1-point home favorites. This line opened with Detroit listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is slighting leaning toward laying the points with Detroit. However, despite 53% of spread bets taking the Lions we’ve seen Detroit fall from -4.5 to -3. Some shops are even hinting at a further dip down to -2.5. Essentially, all movement and liability is on the Cardinals plus the points at home. Conference home dogs +4 or less are 409-332 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2019. Kyler Murray is 26-14 ATS (65%) with a 25% ROI as a dog in his career. The Cardinals also have value as a “dog who can score,” ranking 2nd in the NFL in points per game with 34.5, thereby keeping pace and possibly backdoor covering. We could also be looking at a shootout, as the total has risen from 51.5 to 52.5. The over is receiving 67% of bets but 80% of dollars, indicating public support but also respected smart money on the over. Brad Rogers, the lead ref, is 59-46 (56%) to the over historically.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 46.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The Chiefs (2-0) just edged the Bengals 26-25 but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Falcons (1-1) just shocked the Eagles 22-21, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering Kansas City, expecting an easy win and cover. However, despite receiving 79% of spread bets we’ve seen the Chiefs fall from -4.5 to -3.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already laying the points with Kansas City to begin with? Because pro money has gotten down on the Falcons plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Atlanta is one of the top contrarian players of the week, receiving only 21% of spread bets in a heavily bet Sunday Night Football game. Primetime dogs are 123-95 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2020. Patrick Mahomes is just 33-40 ATS (45%) as a favorite of 3.5-points or more in his career. Sharps are also leaning under, as the total has fallen from 47.5 to 46.5 despite 73% of bets taking the over. The under is only receiving 27% of bets but 58% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. Primetime unders are 164-110 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2019.

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-3, 36.5)

The Packers (1-1) are coming off a 16-10 win over the Colts, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Titans (0-2) just fell to the Jets 24-17, failing to cover as 4-point home dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to back Green Bay plus the points. However, despite 69% of spread bets taking the Packers we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Titans -1.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Tennessee, with pros fading the trendy dog Packers and instead backing the contrarian favorite Titans at home. Tennessee is only receiving 31% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Teams that are 0-2 have gone 38-22 ATS (63%) with a 23% ROI in Week 3 since 2017. Those looking to hold their nose and back the sharp Titans line move but wary of laying a key number in what might end up being a close game could instead elect to play Tennessee on the moneyline at -155. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 39.5 to 36.5. The under is receiving 50% of bets but a whopping 90% of dollars, a massive wiseguy under bet split.