South Alabama @ Appalachian State (-7.5)
South Alabama (1-2)
USA lost its first two I-A games, 52-38/27-20.
Jaguars allowed 550/404 TY in the two losses.
Jaguars pounded on a I-AA team LW, 87-10.
USA has 4 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Jaguars have 21 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Lopez has thrown for 689 yards (7 TD’s, no INT’s).

Last three years, USA is 3-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Last four years, South Alabama is 14-18 ATS in Sun Belt games.
New coach Applewhite was 15-11 in two years at Houston (’17-’18)
South Alabama is 8-13 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.

Appalachian State (2-1)
App State threw for 424 yards in LW’s 21-19 win at East Carolina.
App State lost its other I-A game 66-20 at Clemson.
App State has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
App State has 15 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Aguilar started 13 games last year.

Under Clark, App State is 9-15 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Clark, App State is 12-26-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Clark, App State is 13-20-1 ATS in Sun Belt games.
Under Clark, App State is 13-17-2 ATS coming off a win.

Teams haven’t met since 2021.
App State won last four series games (2-2 ATS)
App State won last three meetings, 113-17.
Over is 3-2 in last five series games.

Potential fireworks are in the forecast for Thursday night, as the South Alabama Jaguars and Appalachian State Mountaineers get together in picturesque Boone, North Carolina to get Week 4 underway. Early betting action has pushed the total on this game towards the mid-60s, as the Sun Belt may truly transform into the Fun Belt in this matchup.

South Alabama is one up and two down to begin the season, with the win coming in last week’s 87-10 romp over Northwestern State. I promise that the “87” is not a typo. The Jags went 24-28-28 over the first three quarters and racked up 620 yards on the Demons, who are 0-3, including a 62-28 loss to Tulsa to open the season.

App State is two up and one down, with a 66-10 loss to Clemson on the ledger. The Week 1 win over East Tennessee State wasn’t much to write home about, but a gritty win in Greenville over East Carolina by a 21-19 count was a nice victory for Shawn Clark’s crew. The 21-point output is a bit misleading, as App State had 515 yards of offense, including 424 from Joey Aguilar in the passing game.

The Mountaineers threw a pick-six and had a red-zone fumble, so there were some self-inflicted wounds, but they did erase a 16-0 deficit after the first quarter. For a team that I really liked to win the Sun Belt as the favorite, I’ve been a bit underwhelmed, but they have a good chance to start 1-0 in league play.

Through two games, the Mountaineers have 5.7 yards per play against FBS foes, while the Jaguars have 6.3. However, App State was no match whatsoever for Clemson, easily the best opponent between the two teams, as South Alabama lost to Ohio and North Texas to begin the season.

App State gave up 9.8 YPP to Clemson and still allowed 5.6 YPP to ECU last week. The Jags have given up 6.6 YPP in their two FBS games, including over 7.2 to North Texas. That’s how you get a total that has been moving up like this one has.

I have to say that it is very concerning that App State is running for just 4.3 yards per carry on the season and only had 2.7 YPC against East Carolina. Aguilar is tracking towards the best QB numbers in program history, but this is still a team that wants to have offensive balance and they don’t right now.

South Alabama is a team I wanted to fade entering the season. Former head coach Kane Wommack is now calling defensive plays in Tuscaloosa and former defensive coordinator Corey Batoon is the DC at Missouri.

With that, let’s look at the total. I like the Over 64 like seemingly everybody else. I think App State knows their running game isn’t up to par, so this is Aguilar’s show. Also, Gio Lopez for South Alabama has a 7/0 TD/INT ratio and threw for 432 yards against North Texas.

These defenses have combined to allow 82 plays of 10+ yards, 25 plays of 20+ yards, and 13 plays of 30+ yards. Explosive plays should be frequent on Thursday night.