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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Market Moves 9/14
12 p.m. ET: LSU (-6, 48) at South Carolina
LSU (1-1, ranked 16th) just took down Nicholls 44-21 last week but failed to cover as 46.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, South Carolina (2-0) just crushed Kentucky 31-6, winning outright as 9.5-point road dogs. This line opened with LSU listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with LSU, who has the better ranking. However, despite receiving 71% of spread bets we’ve seen LSU fall from -7.5 to -6. This signals sharp reverse line movement on South Carolina, as the line is moving in their direction despite being the unpopular side. South Carolina is only receiving 29% of spread bets in one of the most heavily bet games of the day, providing notable contrarian value. The Gamecocks have additional value as a buy-low unranked home dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Unranked teams are 16-11 ATS (59%) with a 15% ROI against ranked teams so far this season. South Carolina also has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the game getting points. Wiseguys have hit the under as well, dropping the total from 51.5 to 48. This downward movement is notable because the public is hammering the over (68% of bets), yet the total fell.
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09-14-24 03:44 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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3:30 p.m. ET: Notre Dame (-7.5, 47) at Purdue
Notre Dame (1-1, ranked 18th) just suffered a shocking 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois, losing outright as 28-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Purdue (1-0) has only played one game so far this year, crushing Indiana State 49-0 and easily covering as 35-point home favorites. This line opened with Notre Dame listed as a 12.5-point road favorite. The public expects the Fighting Irish to get back on track and 66% of spread bets are laying the road chalk with Notre Dame. However, despite receiving two-thirds of bets we’ve seen Notre Dame fall from -12.5 to -7.5. This indicates smart money grabbing the points with home dog Purdue, triggering massive reverse line movement in their direction. The movement toward Purdue has been consistent throughout the week, with zero buyback on Notre Dame. The Boilermakers are only receiving 34% of spread bets, providing heightened “bet against the public” value in one of the most heavily bet late afternoon games. Unranked teams against ranked opponents are 16-11 ATS (59%) with a 15% ROI this season. Purdue also enjoys a rest advantage, as the Boilermakers are coming off a bye while Notre Dame played last week.
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09-14-24 03:44 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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7:30 p.m. ET: UCF at TCU (-2.5, 62.5)
UCF (2-0) just crushed Sam Houston 45-14 last week, easily covering as 21.5-point home favorites. Similarly, TCU (2-0) just demolished Long Island 45-0 but failed to cover as 45.5-point home favorites. This line opened with TCU listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched, undefeated teams is happy to grab the points with road dog UCF. Early in the week, we saw the line flip to UCF -2.5. However, since that time its been nothing but sharp buyback on TCU, with the Horned Frogs flipping back to a 2.5-point home favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on TCU, as the line has moved in their direction off the opener despite being the unpopular side. TCU is only receiving 35% of spread bets, offering notable contrarian value in a heavily bet primetime game. Those looking to follow the sharp line move but wary of laying the points in what might end up being a close game could instead entertain TCU on the moneyline at -125.
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09-14-24 03:44 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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7:30 p.m. ET: UCF at TCU (-2.5, 62.5)
UCF (2-0) just crushed Sam Houston 45-14 last week, easily covering as 21.5-point home favorites. Similarly, TCU (2-0) just demolished Long Island 45-0 but failed to cover as 45.5-point home favorites. This line opened with TCU listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched, undefeated teams is happy to grab the points with road dog UCF. Early in the week, we saw the line flip to UCF -2.5. However, since that time its been nothing but sharp buyback on TCU, with the Horned Frogs flipping back to a 2.5-point home favorite. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on TCU, as the line has moved in their direction off the opener despite being the unpopular side. TCU is only receiving 35% of spread bets, offering notable contrarian value in a heavily bet primetime game. Those looking to follow the sharp line move but wary of laying the points in what might end up being a close game could instead entertain TCU on the moneyline at -125.
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09-14-24 03:44 PM |
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