Since 2019, home teams on Thursday are 37-51 ATS

Dolphins -2.5 vs. Bills.

Early Dolphins-Bills betting at BetMGM

Dolphins open -1, now -2.5
▪️ 55% of bets, 65% of money on Dolphins

Total open 50.5, now 49
▪️ 64% of bets, 79% of money on Under

Bills open -105, now +115
▪️ 65% of bets, 56% of money on Bills

Since 2003, when two teams that are 0-1 ATS meet in Week 2, the underdog is 49-26-3 (65%) ATS

Bills +2.5 at MIA

Bills @ Dolphins (-1.5)
Bills (1-0)
Bills are 9-3-1 ATS in last 12 games as a road underdog.
Buffalo averaged 8.9 yards/pass attempt LW, was only 3-9 on 3rd down.
Last 5 years, Buffalo is 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in its road opener.
Last six years, Bills are 10-7-1 ATS in AFC East road games.

Buffalo is 14-3-1 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Bills are 19-9-3 ATS in last 31 games on natural grass.
QB Allen is 69-35 as NFL starter; he is expected to play, despite hurting his left hand last week.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight road openers.

Dolphins (1-0)
Under McDaniel, Miami is 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Last week, Dolphins threw for 319 yards, were 8-16 on 3rd down.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-2 ATS in AFC East home games.

Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
QB Tagovailoa is 33-20 as an NFL starter.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-5 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.

Buffalo won 10 of last 11 series games.
Bills are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven visits to Miami.
Over is 7-4 in last eleven meetings.

5. Teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 39-21-1 Under (65%) the total in Week 2 since 2005 (+14.8 units, ROI: 24.7%, Grade 63)

This one is genuinely tough to explain, but it could stem from the emotional toll of winning a close game and the potential offensive letdown that might occur, at least early in the contest. Whatever the reason, 18 games over .500 gives the system merit. One of the two qualifying games for this one is on Thursday night, and those TNF contests have become well-known for unexpectedly low-scoring contests on occasion.
2024 Plays: UNDER in Buffalo-MIAMI

Dolphins-Bills total at BetMGM

50.5 - Open

49 - This morning

48.5 - Now

66% of money is on the UNDER

“Bettors are all over the Dolphins tonight; a Bills cover is ideal for the Sportsbook. Additionally, we are cheering for anyone except for Josh Allen and Tyreek Hill to find the endzone.”

- Tristan Davis, Senior Trading Manager, BetMGM

The Buffalo Bills have won 11 of their past 12 games against the Miami Dolphins, and their only loss in that stretch was by a margin of two points.

The Dolphins are favored by 2.5 (-110) heading into the Thursday night game.

Updated Dolphins-Bills betting at BetMGM

Dolphins open -1, now -2.5
▪️ 54% of bets, 61% of money on Dolphins

Total open 50.5, now 49
▪️ 57% of bets, 71% of money on Under

Bills open -105, now +115
▪️ 67% of bets, 57% of money on Bills

Most bet (tickets) Dolphins-Bills player props at BetMGM

1. Tyreek Hill to score 1st TD (+600)

2. Josh Allen to score anytime TD (-120)

3. Allen over 246.5 pass yards (-135)

4. Jaylen Waddle over 62.5 receiving yards (-135)