The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Market Moves 9/09
8:15 p.m. ET: New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4, 43)
The Jets went 7-10 last season, finishing third in the AFC East and missing the postseason. New York’s win total for this year is 10.5 with the under juiced to -145. Meanwhile, the 49ers finished 12-5 last season, winning the NFC West and reaching the Super Bowl where they fell to the Chiefs 25-22 in overtime. San Francisco’s win total for this year is 11.5 with the under juiced to -145.
This Monday Night Football line opened with the 49ers listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with San Francisco at home. However, despite receiving 61% of spread bets we’ve seen the 49ers fall from -5.5 to-4. Some shops even briefly reached -3.5. This signals sharp one-way reverse line movement on the Jets, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular side. New York is receiving 39% of spread bets but 47% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to notable contrarian value in a heavily bet primetime game.
The Jets match several notable betting systems. Primetime dogs are 120-94 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2020. Week 1 dogs who missed the postseason the previous year are 59-44 ATS (57%) with an 11% ROI since 2016. Week 1 road dogs are 52-35 ATS (60%) with a 16% ROI since 2016. Aaron Rodgers is 28-21 ATS (57%) with an 11% ROI as a dog in his career. Kyle Shanahan is just 16-21 ATS (43%) as a home favorite. Also, Super Bowl losers are just 5-19 ATS (21%) in Week 1 of the following season over the past 24 years. Those looking to go contrarian and back the Jets would be wise to search for a hook (+4.5), or also consider the Jets in a teaser (+4.5 to +10.5), which passes through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 45 to 43. This movement is especially notable because 58% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell. This signals smart money banking on a lower scoring game despite the public going the other way. Primetime unders are 161-109 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2019. The forecast calls for clear skies, low 70s and mild 7-10 MPH winds.
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09-09-24 10:18 PM |
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