12 p.m. ET: Texas (-6.5, 41.5) at Michigan

Texas (1-0, ranked 3rd) crushed Colorado State 52-0 in their season opener, easily covering as 34-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Michigan (1-0, ranked 10th) just brushed aside Fresno State 30-10 but failed to cover at 21.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Texas listed as low as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is hammering the Longhorns, with 73% of spread bets and 75% of spread dollars laying the points. This heavily lopsided support drove Texas up from -3.5 to -7.5. However, once the hook was available we saw sharp buyback on Michigan +7.5 as well as +7, dropping the line back down to +6.5 where it stands now. Essentially, all late movement, especially over the past 24-hours, is breaking back toward Michigan and the points. The Wolverines are one of the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving only 27% of spread bets in the most heavily bet, nationally televised game of the day. Michigan has correlative betting value as a touchdown dog in a low total game (41.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover. The Wolverines have buy-low inflated line value, as the opening number was +3.5 and now bettors can grab Michigan getting a touchdown. The Wolverines also have buy-low, sell-high value as a dog who didn’t cover the previous week playing a favorite who did. Pros hit the under as well, dropping the total from 45.5 to 41.5. This movement is notable because 81% of bets are taking the over, yet the total fell, evidence of pro money banking on a lower scoring game. The forecast calls for high 50s with partly cloudy skies and 13 MPH winds at Michigan Stadium.

12 p.m. ET: Kansas State (-8.5, 47) at Tulane

Kansas State (1-0, ranked 17th) pushed aside UT Martin 41-6 in their season opener but failed to cover as 36-point home favorites. On the other hand, Tulane (1-0) just destroyed Southeast Louisiana 52-0, easily covering as 27-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas State listed as a 10.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win and cover with Kansas State and 75% of spread bets are laying the points with the Wildcats. However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Kansas State fall from -10.5 to -8.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the number to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Kansas State to begin with? Because pro money has come dome on Tulane plus the points at home, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Tulane is only receiving 25% of spread bets, which offers notable contrarian value in a heavily bet ESPN game. Tulane has buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. The Green Wave enjoy a two-day rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while Kansas State last played on Saturday. Wiseguys have also hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 47. The under is only receiving 18% of bets but 42% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 10 MPH winds and possibly some rain at Yulman Stadium.

3:30 p.m. ET: Iowa State at Iowa (-3, 35.5)

Iowa State (1-0) just took down North Dakota 21-3 in their season opener but failed to cover as 30-point home favorites. On the other hand, Iowa (1-0, ranked 21st) just crushed Illinois State 40-0, cruising as 22-point home favorites. This line opened with Iowa listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with Iowa at home. However, despite 85% of spread bets backing the Hawkeyes, we’ve seen this line barely tick up from Iowa -2.5 to -3. Some shops are still at Iowa -2.5. And all the other books are juicing up Iowa State +3 at -115. Reading between the lines, we are seeing sharp contrarian liability on Iowa State at the key number of +3, as the line has barely moved despite overwhelming support for Iowa. The Cyclones are only receiving 15% of spread bets, making them the top “bet against the public” play of the day. Iowa State has value buy-low, sell-high value as unranked road dog against a ranked opponent, as well as a dog who didn’t cover the previous week playing a favorite who did. Short road dogs +4 or less are 562-485 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2012.

7 p.m. ET: Kansas (-4.5, 57.5) at Illinois

Kansas (1-0, ranked 19th) just dominated Lindenwood 48-3 in their season opener but failed to cover as 49.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Illinois (1-0) just shutout Eastern Illinois 45-0, covering as 29-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas listed as a 6-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re happy to lay the points with Kansas. However, despite receiving 74% of spread bets we’ve seen Kansas fall from -6 to -4.5. Some shops are even down toward -4. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Illinois plus the points, as the line is moving in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Essentially all movement and liability from the opener has been on Illinois. Illinois is only receiving 26% of spread bets in a heavily bet, primetime game on FSI. The Fighting Illini have buy-low, sell-high value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total has risen from 55.5 to 57.5. The over is receiving 62% of bets, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a two-point upward adjustment.