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msudogs
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MLB Lagniappe 9/04

Washington (62-76) @ Miami (51-87)
— Gore is 1-0, 2.25 in his last two starts.
— Washington is 5-5 in his last 10 starts.
— under 3-0 last three starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-27
— record in first 5 innings: 13-12-2
— He is 1-1, 3.65 in two starts vs Miami

— Nationals are 4-6 in last ten games.
— They’re 30-39 on road.
— under 12-4 last sixteen games
— scored run in first inning: 26-138
— record in first 5 innings: 56-68-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-3.1

— Bellozo is 0-1, 12.97 in his last two starts.
— Miami is 4-1 in his last five starts.
— over 3-2 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 2-8
— record in first 5 innings: 5-2-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Washington

— Marlins are 5-4 in their last nine games.
— Miami is 25-45 at home.
— over 14-4 last 18 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 32-138
— record in first 5 innings: 46-76-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-5-3.1

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Colorado (51-88) @ Atlanta (75-63)
— Blalock is 1-1, 5.66 in four starts.
— Colorado is 2-2 in his starts.
— over 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Atlanta.

— Rockies are 4-9 in their last 13 games.
— They’re 19-51 on road.
— over 3-2 last five road games
— scored run in first inning: 35-139
— record in first 5 innings: 49-70-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-x-3

— Morton is 1-0, 3.13 in his last four starts.
— Atlanta is 3-1 in his last four starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 7-25
— record in first 5 innings: 12-9-4
— He is 6-2, 3.81 in 14 starts vs Colorado.

— Braves lost three of last five games.
— They’re 37-28 at home.
— under 7-0 last seven home games
— scored run in first inning: 38-138
— record in first 5 innings: 66-52-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-2

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St Louis (70-69) @ Milwaukee (81-58)
— Gray is 1-3, 5.73 in his last four starts.
— Cardinals are 2-5 in his last seven starts.
— under 5-0 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 5-25
— record in first 5 innings: 12-10-3
— He is 0-2, 6.35 in two starts vs Milwaukee TY.

— Cardinals are 9-5 in last 14 games.
— They’re 34-37 on road.
— over 7-2 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 31-139
— record in first 5 innings: 54-63-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-2.1-7.1

— Rea is 3-1, 3.71 in his last four starts.
— Brewers are 12-4 in his last 16 starts.
— over 6-2 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 7-23
— record in first 5 innings: 12-7-4
— He is 1-3, 4.35 in six starts vs St Louis.

— Brewers are 14-6 in their last 20 games.
— They’re 41-26 at home.
— over 8-4 last dozen games
— scored run in first inning: 37-139
— record in first 5 innings: 65-53-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-4-7

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Pittsburgh (65-73) @ Cubs (71-68)
— bullpen game

— Pirates won three of last four games.
— They’re 33-37 on road.
— over 7-4 last eleven games
— scored run in first inning: 27-138
— record in first 5 innings: 55-60-23
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-2.2-4

— Imanaga is 2-1, 2.50 in his last three starts.
— Chicago is 19-6 in his starts.
— over 6-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 3-25
— record in first 5 innings: 13-6-6
— He blanked Pittsburgh for 7 IP May 18th.

— Cubs are 9-3 in their last 12 games.
— They’re 36-31 at home.
— over 10-3 last 13 games
— scored run in first inning: 31-139
— record in first 5 innings: 60-58-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-2-4

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Arizona (78-61) @ San Francisco (68-71)
— Gallen is 1-1, 4.96 in his last three starts.
— Arizona is 6-2 in his last eight starts.
— over 7-4 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 7-23
— record in first 5 innings: 12-7-4
— He is 4-5, 4.44 in 14 starts vs San Francisco.

— Arizona is 3-5 in its last eight games.
— Diamondbacks are 39-30 on road.
— over 28-7 last 35 games
— scored run in first inning: 47-139
— record in first 5 innings: 66-51-22
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-5-2.1

— Birdsong is 0-4, 8.84 in his last five starts.
— Giants lost his last five starts.
— under 8-3
— allowed run in first inning: 3-11
— record in first 5 innings: 6-3-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Arizona

— Giants are 3-8 in their last 11 games.
— Giants are 39-31 at home.
— over 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 35-139
— record in first 5 innings: 56-60-23
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-6.1

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White Sox (31-109) @ Baltimore (81-59)
— Cannon is 0-4, 7.78 in his last four starts.
— White Sox are 4-12 in his starts.
— under 6-2 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 3-16
— record in first 5 innings: 6-1-9
— He hasn’t pitched against Baltimore.

— White Sox lost their last 12 games.
— Chicago is 13-55 on road.
— under 7-1 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 29-140
— record in first 5 innings: 49-70-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5.2-4.2-6.1

— Suarez is 2-0, 1.93 in his last three starts.
— Orioles are 11-8 in his starts.
— under 5-0 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 3-19
— record in first 5 innings: 10-7-2
— He is 0-0, 3.00 in two games (1 start) vs Chicago.

— Baltimore is 4-1 in its last five games.
— Orioles are 41-30 at home.
— under 12-8 last 20 games
— scored run in first inning: 39-140
— record in first 5 innings: 72-52-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-4-1.2

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Cleveland (78-59) @ Kansas City (75-63)
— Lively is 1-1, 6.35 in his last three starts.
— Cleveland is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— over 5-1 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-24
— record in first 5 innings: 15-7-2
— He is 1-1, 3.09 in two starts vs Kansas City.

— Cleveland is 4-2 in its last six games.
— Guardians are 37-34 on road.
— under 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 37-139
— record in first 5 innings: 62-59-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2-3

— Lugo is 1-3, 7.14 in his last five starts.
— Royals are 3-7 in his last ten starts.
— under 9-4 last 13
— allowed run in first inning: 4-28
— record in first 5 innings: 15-9-4
— He is 1-0, 3.75 in two starts vs Cleveland TY.

— Royals lost their last seven games.
— Royals are 41-30 at home.
— under 3-2 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 37-140
— record in first 5 innings: 66-53-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4-3.1

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Minnesota (75-63) @ Tampa Bay (68-70)
— bullpen game

— Twins are 3-2 in last five games.
— Twins are 36-33 on road.
— under 7-3 last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 39-138
— record in first 5 innings: 62-60-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-5.1-3

— bullpen game

— Tampa Bay is 4-8 in its last 12 games.
— Rays are 36-37 at home.
— over 4-2 last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 35-138
— record in first 5 innings: 46-72-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-5-3

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Bronx (80-59) @ Texas (66-73)
— Stroman is 3-0, 2.35 in his last four starts.
— New York is 11-5 in his last 16 starts.
— over 13-2 last 15
— allowed run in first inning: 8-26
— record in first 5 innings: 12-10-4
— He is 3-3, 5.34 in six starts vs Texas.

— New York is 4-6 in its last ten games.
— They’re 43-28 on road.
— under 6-2 last eight road games
— scored run in first inning: 49-139
— record in first 5 innings: 68-55-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-3-2.2

— Eovaldi is 2-0, 2.08 in his last two starts.
— Texas is 7-4 in his last 11 starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 6-24
— record in first 5 innings: 10-8-6
— He is 4-5, 3.61 in 18 starts vs New York.

— Rangers are 10-5 in last 15 games.
— Texas is 37-33 at home.
— over 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 42-139
— record in first 5 innings: 55-61-23
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5.1-4-4

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Seattle (69-70) @ Oakland (61-78)
— Kirby is 2-1, 5.51 in his last three starts.
— Seattle is 3-8 in his last 11 starts.
— over 5-0 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 8-28
— record in first 5 innings: 12-12-4
— He is 4-0, 4.12 in seven starts vs Oakland.

— Seattle lost its last four games.
— Mariners are 28-42 on road.
— under 7-4 last eleven games
— scored run in first inning: 39-139
— record in first 5 innings: 62-57-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-2.2-1.2

— Sears is 4-1, 2.97 in his last six starts.
— Oakland is 8-3 in his last 11 starts.
— over 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 7-27
— record in first 5 innings: 13-12-2
— He is 2-2, 1.86 in six starts vs Seattle

— A’s are 6-3 in last nine games.
— Oakland is 35-35 at home.
— over 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 33-139
— record in first 5 innings: 53-76-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.2-3.2-3

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Philadelphia (82-56) @ Toronto (67-74)
— Sanchez is 1-2, 5.94 in his last three road starts.
— Phillies are 4-6 in his last 10 starts.
— under 8-4 last 12
— allowed run in first inning: 6-26
— record in first 5 innings: 10-14-2
— He gave up a run in 7 IP, in his one start vs Toronto.

— Phillies are 8-2 in their last ten games.
— They’re 35-31 on road.
— over 6-3 last nine road games
— scored run in first inning: 48-138
— record in first 5 innings: 74-51-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-3-8.1

— Francis is 4-0, 0.62 in his last four starts.
— Blue Jays are 6-3 in his starts.
— under 4-0 last four starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-9
— record in first 5 innings: 7-2
— This is his first start against Philly.

— Toronto is 2-5 in its last seven games.
— Blue Jays are 34-34 at home.
— under 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 39-140
— record in first 5 innings: 62-60-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-x-3.2

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Boston (70-69) @ NY Mets (75-64)
— Houck is 0-1, 3.52 in his last five starts.
— Red Sox are 2-6 in his last eight starts.
— over 8-0 last eight starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-27
— record in first 5 innings: 15-8-4
— He hasn’t pitched against the Mets.

— Red Sox are 3-10 in last 13 games.
— They’re 39-31 on road.
— under 7-3 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 46-139
— record in first 5 innings: 69-52-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-2.2-2

— Megill is 1-1, 4.86 in his last three starts.
— Mets are 3-7 in his starts.
— under 7-3
— allowed run in first inning: 5-10
— record in first 5 innings: 5-5
— He hasn’t pitched against Boston.

— New York is 14-6 in its last 20 games.
— Mets are 37-33 at home.
— under 5-2 last seven home games
— scored run in first inning: 34-138
— record in first 5 innings: 65-54-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-2-3

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Houston (75-63) @ Cincinnati (66-73)
— Arrighetti is 2-0, 0.00 in his last two starts (13.2 IP).
— Astros are 10-14 in his starts.
— under 9-3 last 12
— allowed run in first inning: 8-24
— record in first 5 innings: 6-14-4
— He hasn’t pitched against Cincinnati

— Houston won five of its last six games.
— Astros are 36-34 on road.
— under 20-12 last 32 games
— scored run in first inning: 41-138
— record in first 5 innings: 65-53-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-4-3.1

— Martinez is 0-0, 8.53 in his last three starts.
— Reds are 1-4 in his last five starts.
— under 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 3-11
— record in first 5 innings: 2-6-3
— He is 3-4, 4.13 in eight starts against the Astros

— Reds are 7-11 in last 18 games.
— They’re 34-39 at home.
— over 9-6 last 15 games
— scored run in first inning: 37-139
— record in first 5 innings: 61-58-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 7.2-6.1-x

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Detroit (70-69) @ San Diego (78-61)
— Montero is 4-1, 3.46 in his last five starts.
— Tigers are 7-5 in his starts.
— under 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 5-12
— record in first 5 innings: 4-5-3
— He hasn’t pitched against San Diego

— Detroit won 15 of last 21 games.
— Tigers are 35-35 on road.
— under 6-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 40-139
— record in first 5 innings: 57-61-21
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 1-4-4

— Darvish is 2-2, 3.97 in his last four starts.
— His last start was May 29th.
— San Diego is 7-4 in his starts.
— over 8-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-11
— record in first 5 innings: 6-4-1
— He is 7-0, 3.35 in eight starts vs Detroit.

— Padres are 10-8 in their last 18 games.
— They’re 38-32 at home.
— under 4-1 last five games.
— scored run in first inning: 40-140
— record in first 5 innings: 61-61-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-4-3

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Los Angeles (84-55) @ LA Angels (57-81)
— Miller is 1-1, 5.74 in his last three starts.
— Dodgers are 5-5 in his starts.
— over 6-4
— allowed run in first inning: 5-10
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4-2
— He hasn’t pitched against the Angels.

— Dodgers are 21-8 in their last 29 games.
— Dodgers are 39-31 on road.
— over 8-4 last dozen games.
— scored run in first inning: 48-139
— record in first 5 innings: 71-52-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-3.1-5

— Canning is 0-2, 5.56 in his last four games.
— Angels are 6-5 in his last 11 starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 12-26
— record in first 5 innings: 11-14-1
— He is 1-1, 5.02 in three starts against the Dodgers

— Angels are 3-2 in their last five games.
— They’re 29-42 at home.
— under 8-4 last 12 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-138
— record in first 5 innings: 46-77-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-4

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Umpires
— Pitt-Chi— Home favorites are 9-10 in Emil Jimenez games.
— StL-Mil— Home favorites are 5-5 in Riggs games.
— Wsh-Mia— Under is 16-11 in Merzel games.
— Col-Atl— Over is 23-4 in Fletcher games.
— Az-SF— Home underdogs are 0-3 in Wolcott games.

— Chi-Balt— Over is 16-12 in Ramos games.
— Minn-TB— Favorites are 13-12 in Ortiz games.
— Clev-KC— Over is 14-9 in Thomas games.
— NYY-Tex— Over is 17-10 in Vondrak games.
— Sea-A’s— Home underdogs are 3-4 in Hanahan games.

— Bos-NYM— Home favorites are 13-6 in Tomlinson games.
— Phil-Tor— Over is 15-10 in Blakney games.
— Hst-Cin— Over is 4-1 in Livensparger games.
— Det-SD— Home favorites are 12-5 in Bellino games.
— LA-LAA— Home underdogs are 6-4 in Johnson games.

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Trend: Atlanta has won 15 of the last 18 games against Colorado (83.3%, +8.23 units)
– The R.O.I. on this trend is 45.7%
System Matches: PLAY ATLANTA (-285 vs. COL)

Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 22-5 (+17.60 units) in Sept/Oct/Nov since 2020
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-110 vs. NYY)

Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (9-39, -29.21 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+114 vs WSH)

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(901) WASHINGTON (62-76) at (902) MIAMI (51-87)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (9-39, -29.21 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+114 vs. WSH)

(903) COLORADO (51-88) at (904) ATLANTA (75-63)
Trend: ATL more Under at home (20-43 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(907) ST LOUIS (70-69) at (908) MILWAUKEE (81-58)
Trend: MIL trending Over at home (38-22 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(909) ARIZONA (78-61) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (68-71)
Trend: AZ trending Over vs. divisional teams (29-11 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(911) CHICAGO-AL (31-109) at (912) BALTIMORE (81-59)
Trend: BAL slight Over vs. AL Central/West (32-18 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(913) MINNESOTA (75-63) at (914) TAMPA BAY (68-70)
Trend: TB trending Under vs. AL Central/West (20-34 O/U)

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(917) NEW YORK-AL (80-59) at (918) TEXAS (66-73)
Trend: TEX more Under at home this season (25-43 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(919) SEATTLE (69-70) at (920) OAKLAND (61-78)
Trend: SEA bad on the road (28-42, -22.99 units)
System Match: FADE SEATTLE (-142 at OAK)

(921) PHILADELPHIA (82-56) at (922) TORONTO (67-73)
Trend: Over the total is 15-7 when TOR is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(923) HOUSTON (75-63) at (924) CINCINNATI (66-73)
Trend: HOU slight Under on the road (26-40 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(927) LOS ANGELES-NL (84-55) at (928) LOS ANGELES-AL (57-81)
Trend: LAA worse at home (29-42, -9.63 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+170 vs. LAD)

(929) DETROIT (70-69) at (930) SAN DIEGO (79-61)
Trend: SD trending Over vs. RH starters (57-37 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

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(901) WASHINGTON (62-76) at (902) MIAMI (51-87)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 7-14 (-5.28 units) vs. NL East opponents in his career
System Match: FADE WASHINGTON (-135 at MIA)

(907) ST LOUIS (70-69) at (908) MILWAUKEE (81-58)
Trend: Sonny Gray is 5-2 (+2.68 units) on road vs. Milwaukee
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (-102 at MIL)

Trend: Colin Rea has been dominant in the -120 to +135 line range, going 20-4 (+17.73 units) in the last two seasons for MIL
System Match: PLAY MILWAUKEE (-118 vs. STL)

(917) NEW YORK-AL (80-59) at (918) TEXAS (66-73)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 22-5 (+17.60 units) in Sept/Oct/Nov since 2020
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-110 vs. NYY)

(919) SEATTLE (69-70) at (920) OAKLAND (61-78)
Trend: George Kirby is 6-1 (+4.20 units) vs. Oakland in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-142 at OAK)

Trend: SEA is 16-7 (+4.45 units) as a ROAD favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-142 at OAK)

(921) PHILADELPHIA (82-56) at (922) TORONTO (67-73)
Trend: PHI is 8-17 (-12.58 units) in line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez the last 2+ seasons
System Match:FADE PHILADELPHIA (-130 at TOR)

(925) BOSTON (70-69) at (926) NEW YORK-NL (75-64)
Trend: BOS is 4-14 (-10.65 units) in the -120 to +100 line range by starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-108 at NYM)

(929) DETROIT (70-69) at (930) SAN DIEGO (79-61)
Trend: SD is 15-7 (+1.55 units) as a home favorite within line range of -180 to -240 with starter Yu Darvish in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY SAN DIEGO (-205 vs. DET)

Old Post 09-04-24 11:02 PM
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