Braves First Inning ML +210 (Play to +200)

Starting Pitchers: Kyle Freeland vs. Chris Sale

I'm actually projecting a slight value on the traditional YRFI in this game, but that's driven almost entirely by the Braves. The Rockies are a bottom-three team against lefties, and they're facing the presumptive NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale.

The Rockies' team total is just 2.5 runs, and there is a very low chance any of those runs will come early.

On the other side, Atlanta is considerably better against lefties and has a softer matchup against Freeland. The Braves 2-5 hitters all have wOBAs of .370 or higher against lefties, while Freeland has a 4.18 xERA his first time through the order.

NRFI -140 (Play to -150)

Starting Pitchers: Hendricks vs. Paul Skenes

Paul Skenes' starts are always worth considering for the NRFI. The rookie has a 2.23 overall ERA but has been even better early in games with a first-time-through-the-order mark of 1.73. His underlying numbers follow a similar trend, with better results early than late.

Plus, the offense behind him isn't good. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in wRC+ against righties, so they're not especially likely to score. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is no Skenes, but his first-time through-the-order ERA of 3.19 is still very solid.

This game has just a seven-run total, plus weather that's expected to limit production. It's an excellent pick even at high juice, but fortunately, ESPNBet is offering a slightly off-market line of -140. Take advantage of that if possible, but I'd still play the widely available -150 lines.

On it