Paula Badosa vs. Emma Navarro

Badosa is a much better server than Navarro, as her hard-court hold percentage is 75.3% over the last 52 weeks. Navarro’s is down below 70.0%. That could ultimately be the difference maker in this match, as these are quick courts and Badosa should have an easier time taking advantage of that.

Badosa should also feel pretty confident heading into this one. She beat Navarro when the two met in Rome earlier in the year, when she wasn’t playing nearly as well as she is now. Badosa has won 14 of her last 16 matches, looking unbeatable since the start of the North American hard-court swing.

I also like that the betting public will be all over Navarro after her win over Coco Gauff last round. That version of Gauff shouldn’t be a measuring stick. She had 60 unforced errors and couldn’t put any of her serves in. So, it’d be a mistake to consider that match when looking at these odds. Badosa is the better player and should probably be favored even more.

Badosa ML (-125)

Frances Tiafoe vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Tiafoe is going to be another trendy underdog on Tuesday. Everybody wants to back the American at this tournament, and it’s hard to argue with them. He’s an exciting player to watch, he gets the crowd involved and he genuinely does up his level on the biggest stages. But Tiafoe got absolutely demolished by Dimitrov when these two met at Wimbledon, and the Bulgarian’s average level is a lot higher than the American’s. So, if neither one of these players comes out redlining, Dimitrov really should come away with the win.

Dimitrov’s hold percentage over the last 52 weeks is all the way up at 88.5% while Tiafoe’s is just 83.1%. In that same span, Dimitrov’s break percentage is also 21.0% compared to Tiafoe’s 17.0%. There’s just not a lot that suggests Dimitrov should be anything but a massive favorite here, but you don’t have to lay a lot of juice to back him because of the New York crowd.

Even Dimitrov’s baseline game can cause problems for Tiafoe. The Bulgarian’s backhand slice should keep Tiafoe from getting comfortable here, and Dimitrov’s net game will also be a big factor.

The only thing that really concerns me heading into this match is that Dimitrov did look a little tired towards the end of his five-set match against Andrey Rublev. But Tiafoe has also had to work his tail off in this tournament, so the American might not have an advantage in freshness.

Bet: Dimitrov ML (-143 – 1.5 units)