Tommy Paul vs. Jannik Sinner

I thought about going with Paul +2.5 sets here, but the odds are better for Over 3.5 sets. And I’m not sure there’s a difference between the two. If Paul does somehow win this match, it’s highly unlikely it’ll come in straight sets.

The reason I think Paul can make this competitive is that he’s one of the most relentless players on tour. Paul is a speed demon and is going to track down everything Sinner hits. That will make it hard on Sinner to win quick points, which could get to the Italian physically. Sinner might have won in Cincinnati a few weeks ago, but he looked gassed by the end of the tournament. He was also grabbing at his hip rather often. Sinner is a player with questionable best-of-five conditioning, and a matchup with Paul doesn’t help there. Paul is also one of the best returners in the sport, so he’ll put some pressure on the Sinner serve.

This is also going to be an interesting atmosphere. Sinner is visibly feeling a little guilty about what happened with his positive steroid tests a couple of months ago. When you combine that with the fact that this crowd is going to be going crazy for Paul, will Sinner be able to handle all of that without a few hiccups? I don’t think so. I ultimately think the Italian will emerge in four or five sets. However, I do think Paul is somewhat live as an underdog. I just don’t want to play that personally.

Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-124 – 1.5 units)

Caroline Wozniacki vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia

Haddad Maia saved seven of the eight break points she faced against Anna Kalinskaya last match. Kalinskaya didn’t handle big moments well, and that ultimately let the Brazilian off the hook. But Haddad Maia won’t be as fortunate against Wozniacki. While the former world No. 1 isn’t as good as she used to be, she has been to the quarterfinals of the US Open five times. Wozniacki will have no trouble dealing with her nerves in this match, and she should be able to capitalize on Haddad Maia’s sloppiness.

This is also going to be an interesting battle, as both of these players are great defenders and counter punchers. But Wozniacki’s big match experience should give her the slight edge here. When it’s time to be bold and go for winners, she likely won’t spray as many unforced errors.

This is also a match in which the oddsmakers are looking to trap people. Haddad Maia is 50 spots higher in the rankings, as she’s 21st in the world and Wozniacki is just 71st. Casual bettors will see that and back Haddad Maia. But the sharp money appears to be on Wozniacki, at least according to the movement on our VSiN Betting Splits page.

Bet: Wozniacki ML (-110 – 1.5 units)

Jordan Thompson vs. Alex De Minaur

I’m not playing this match on its own, but I’m adding a future on De Minaur to win Quarter 2. Thompson is playing well at this event, but I’d be shocked if De Minaur loses this one. He’s just a little better than Thompson in too many areas, with the serve potentially being the only exception. But I’m not even sure you can say that Thompson has a better serve than De Minaur, and the world No. 10 makes up for it by being a far better returner. Also, if De Minaur wins this match, he’ll likely take on Jack Draper next. De Minaur is 3-0 against Draper in his career, and one of those wins came in Acapulco earlier in the year. De Minaur’s physicality could also be an issue for Draper in a best-of-five match. Draper’s conditioning has been a problem his entire career. That said, I think it’s smart to pounce on -105 odds for De Minaur to win these two matches. If Tomas Machac upsets Draper, which I think is a very real possibility, you’re not coming close to touching this value.

Bet: De Minaur To Win Quarter 2 (-105 – 2 units)