Let's get the weekend started folks
GL

Odds to win EPL


Man City +130
Arsenal +160
Liverpool +600
Chelsea +2500
Tottenham +2500
Man United +4000
Newcastle +5000
Aston Villa +6000

Odds to be Top Goalscorer in EPL

Erling Haaland -350
Mohamed Salah +1000
Alexander Isak +1600
Cole Palmer +2000
Heung Min Son +2000
Ollie Watkins +2500
Bukayo Saka +2500
Kai Havertz +3300

Two clubs with a couple of important similarities — one far more desirable than the other — will get the third Premier League matchweek started Saturday.

Arsenal and Brighton have both begun the 2024-25 campaign with six points in two games, but have also been dealt nearly identical injury blows. Matt O'Riley, the Seagulls' newest midfield signing, picked up an ankle injury just nine minutes into his debut — an EFL Cup tie on Tuesday — that will keep him out for a couple of months. Then, on Wednesday, Arsenal officially unveiled Mikel Merino, but during a press conference on Friday, Mikel Arteta announced Merino fractured his shoulder in his first training session.

As a result, it's unlikely either Arteta or Fabian Hurzeler makes any significant changes to their respective starting lineups in this contets.

The North London outfit is coming off a massive 2-0 win against Aston Villa at Villa Park, a match it could have easily lost. Despite Arsenal having twice the Expected Threat (xT) as Villa and 65% Field Tilt, the Expected Goals (xG) numbers were more or less even. In other words, both sides executed their gameplans successfully — Arsenal dominating territory, Villa generating fewer, higher-quality opportunities. It just came down to taking chances, which the Gunners did.

Now, they get another tough fixture. Brighton has notoriously been a bogey game for Arsenal in recent years, but they did win both league meetings last season by an aggregate score of 5-0. To keep the good run of form against the Seagulls rolling, Arteta and Co. will likely be relying on an unchanged starting XI (possibly with Leandro Trossard taking Gabriel Martinelli's spot).

That's not just because they want to, but almost because they have to. The injuries to Merino, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Gabriel Jesus, along with the recent departures of Fabio Vieira and Eddie Nketiah, mean this is a fairly thin squad at the moment. It goes without saying though, the starting lineup is among the best on the planet, and limited depth doesn't change that.

Hurzeler has settled in to life in the Premier League. After Hurzeler led St. Pauli to promotion into the German Bundesliga last campaign, Brighton chairman Tony Bloom targeted the 31-year-old to take over for the departing Roberto de Zerbi. A convincing 2-1 win over Manchester United at the Amex last weekend will have vindicated that decision for many — although anyone still doubting Bloom clearly hasn't learned their lesson.

In addition to hiring the youngest permanent manager in Premier League history, the Seagulls have gone on a spending rampage this summer. Brighton's net spend sits around -€200 million as they've brought in eight new faces to bolster an already solid squad. Hurzeler will certainly be spoiled when all of his players are fit. However, in the context of this game, O'Riley's aforementioned injury, along with minor issues for Mats Wieffer, Brajan Gruda and Ferdi Kadioglu might have made some of those decisions already for the German boss.

While Hurzeler's style was parroted as being comparable to his predecessor's, Brighton have generally appeared to be more risk-averse and have displayed inferior in-possession principles relative to what they did under de Zerbi. They've raised their floor and lowered their ceiling, which likely hurts when facing Manchester City and Arsenal.

With Hurzeler so early into his Brighton tenure, it's hard to know exactly how he'll approach a game like this, especially when he hasn't really been able to integrate many of his new signings. Arteta will set out to control territory and showed an important development in his out-of-possession setup against Villa, a willingness to commit to a man-to-man press and not give the opponent a +1 to work with in build-up. That last detail has been Arsenal's downfall in games against teams like Villa and Brighton in the past, so utilizing the team's high physical level to make life even more difficult for opponents is absolutely the right move.

There's no doubt Arsenal are the better team. Plus, this game is taking place at the Emirates and the Gunners should be well-rested after having not played in a week, so Brighton will be up against it from the first whistle.

Nuno Espirito Santo will manage against his first Premier League club when his Nottingham Forest welcomes Wolverhampton Wanderers to the City Ground on Saturday.

The 50-year-old Portuguese coach remains the longest-ever tenured manager during Wolves’ Premier League era, a sign in part of the instability that has followed since his departure. He’s now beginning his first full season at the helm of Forest, who have a home draw against Bournemouth and a win at Southampton in their first two league games.

Gary O’Neil may eventually get a chance at surpassing Espirito Santo's longevity if he can replicate last season's performances. His Wolves have performed considerably better than the results suggest so far, with the defeats coming to a pair of London giants, 2-0 at Arsenal and 6-2 at home to Chelsea.

This is already Espirito Santo’s second time facing Wolves in a matter of months after a 2-2 league draw also at the City ground last April. But he has yet to venture to the Molineaux, with Steve Cooper having been in charge of Forest for a 1-1 affair that temporarily prolonged his tenure last December.

The Trees’ improvement following Espirito Santo’s December takeover was subtle but tangible, with Forest earning 22 points in their final 21 league fixtures after taking 14 from their first 17 under Cooper.

And while there was still plenty of pragmatism in his approach, he was able to engineer an attack that was more balanced than Cooper’s and less reliant on the frequently unavailable Nigerian striker Taiwo Awoniyi.

Chris Wood in particular blossomed and scored 14 league goals to seize upon the opportunity created by Awonyi’s fitness concerns. And he’s retained the starting striker role to begin the new campaign while scoring in a season-opening home draw to Bournemouth.

But as a group the Trees will need to get sharper in front of goal than they were in last weekend’s 1-0 win at Southampton. It was a strange contest, with Forest leading 2.2 to 0.1 in expected goals and 23 to 5 in shots despite the Saints holding 64% of the possession.

New center-back Nikola Milenkovic had the best chance before Morgan Gibbs-White’s eventual winner, but couldn’t hit the target with his left foot in the 34th minute.

Back-to-back losses to open the season shouldn’t be too concerning for O’Neil’s group considering the level of opposition. However, two big losses in the summer transfer market without obvious replacements acquired certainly leave this group weaker than at its peak last season.

Pedro Neto is now with Chelsea after he led Wolves with nine assists despite being limited to 20 league appearances. And Max Kilman is with West Ham after he was only one of two Premier League field players to play every single minute last season.

That said, last week’s game offered far more promise than a lopsided score indicated. With the game knotted at 2-all at the half, Noni Madueke explored for a second-half hat trick sparked by a fortunate deflection on the first and some atypically leaky goalkeeping from Jose Sa on the next two. Then came another exceptional finish from Joao Felix to complete the rout.

One interesting trend to consider from last season: On the nine occasions Wolves earned points from an away league fixture, a yes wager on both teams to score in all but two.

One defining trait of O’Neil’s group last season was a sense of adventure on the road. His team played 12 away league fixtures where at least three goals were scored, and five where there were five or more balls that found the net.

Meanwhile, Espirito Santo’s club was defined in part by an ability to stay in the game against any opponent at home. The Trees lost by two or more only once in 11 home matches after his takeover — a 2-0 defeat to Manchester City.

While there is turnover in both groups, the fundamental approaches remain similar to the point where I think it’s worth tying those tendencies together in a same-game parlay wager, playing yes on both teams to score and the total going over 2.5 goals at +113 and an implied 46.9% probability.

It cashed in seven of Forest’s 11 home games under Espirito Santo and 10 of Wolves’ 19 away fixtures.

Nottingham Forest vs. Wolves Odds
Nottingham Forest +100 // Wolves +265

Total: 2.5 (-127/+100)

One of my favorite strategies for EPL predictions from last season: clicking in when a side has been heavily beaten. It’s time to dust it off for the first time this term.

The strategy’s first appearance last campaign was in the game after Sheffield United had been hammered 8-0 at home by Newcastle. The following week, I backed Under 2.5 goals when they played away at West Ham, with the bet cashing after the Hammers won 2-0.

If an NFL team concedes 50 or 60 points, they will focus on defense the entire following week. For Wolves, who were thumped 6-2 on home soil by Chelsea last Sunday, it’s time to focus on defense.

There is also the sub-plot to this game of Nuno Espírito Santo being a former Wolves manager to add some extra spice. In the visiting dugout now is Gary O’Neil, who incidentally could be worth a small bet on being the first Premier League manager to lose his job this season. There are lots of things going against him now. It feels he may just need to protect his profile as a well-thought-of head coach.

The last four meetings across all competitions between these two sides have finished in a tie. Nine of the last 12 have seen Under 2.5 goals bettors cash, and that is the bet I am playing here.

Forest’s opening two games have been low-scoring. A 1-1 draw at home to Bournemouth and a 1-0 win on the road at Southampton.

Wolves contained Arsenal to just a 2-0 win on the opening day before that crazy game at Molineux last weekend. This brings me back to the key driver for this selection and the fact that after conceding a lot of goals, it is then very rare to see an Over in the next fixture.

Last season, there were seven occasions where a team conceded six or more goals in the Premier League. In five of the matches immediately after, the Unders cashed.

EPL Prediction: Nottingham Forest vs Wolves – Under 2.5 goals

Arsenal weren't that great offensively against Aston Villa and it had more to do with Unai Emery’s tactics than anything else. The Gunners did struggle to steadily generate chances from open play because Aston Villa were consistently defending in a back six, which meant that Arsenal couldn’t overload the last line of defense.

The thing is, Brighton are not going to be a whole lot different in this match. Hurzeler’s out of possession tactics mirror closer to a mid-block than a team that presses high like De Zerbi did. Brighton were consistently sitting in a very compact shape, playing a high line, with often times five guys across their backline to reduce the space in between lines. Brighton have been solid defensively in this shape and the only real times they have been opened up is when they lose the ball and the opposing team can break.

Arsenal obviously have a lot of work to do to figure out teams that are going to play five or six guys across the back line and with Havertz up top, those problems are only going to continue.

Either way, this sets up for a low-event type match with Brighton’s out of possession structure and they aren’t going to be afforded the build up success they had against Everton or Manchester United because Arsenal are too good defensively.

Nottingham Forest were really impressive against Southampton and showed some of the versatility out of possession that makes them dangerous against teams at the bottom of the table. Wolves under Gary O’Neill want to be a team that has the ability to play out of the back and they have the personnel to do so, but oftentimes they commit way too many high turnovers, which is what led to them getting outplayed by Nottingham Forest last season.

That match at the City Ground ended 2-2, but Forest were by far the better team. They won the xG battle 1.9 to 1.0, but I think the most important stat from that match was Nottingham Forest forcing 21 high recoveries in the match, which was their highest mark under Nuno Espirito Santo. If Forest feel they can effectively press high, they will do it in a man to man fashion. They smothered Wolves and created a lot of easy transition moments off those high recoveries, so they can do the same thing to Wolves if they decide to try and build out of the back again.

Nottingham Forest under-performed under Nuno Espírito Santo last season, having a +4.3 npxGD in his 21 matches in charge, despite a -5 goal differential. Over that exact same time frame, Wolves drastically over-performed, having a -7 goal differential, but a -16.8 npxGD.

This line is too low for Brentford given the way Southampton have looked through the first two matches.

Southampton under Russell Martin are sure going to try and control as much possession as they can. They thing is, they actually look quite good through the first two phases of build up. Nottingham Forest were sitting in a 4-2-4 mid-block and often times Southampton were getting the ball into their final third without much resistance, but that is where the troubles were because Martin has not figured out how to turn their build up into consistent generation of chances.

I think this stat tells you everything you need to know: In the second half against Nottingham Forest, Southampton controlled 70% of the possession, but they got outshot 11 to 1 at home. In total for the match they only took five shots and generated 0.15 expected goals. Things are not going to get any easier against Brentford, who are going to sit in a very similar defensive shape and make it very difficult for Southampton to get into their penalty area.

Southampton defensively are also prone to two things: transition attacks and set pieces. Last season in the Championship they allowed the most counterattacking shots per 90 minutes of anyone, and so far they’ve allowed five counterattacking shots through two matches. Set pieces and transition breaks are what Brentford do best, so they should thrive in this match.

Searching for their first win since the 2022/2023 Premier League season, Leicester City take on Aston Villa at the King Power this weekend.

Struggling to find his footing with his new side, Steve Cooper looks to get his fan-favorite Foxes back on track after a tough loss at Craven Cottage last weekend.

Unai Emery and the Villains were tested last weekend by the runners-up of the previous season, Arsenal.

With a promising beginning to the season, securing a draw against Tottenham, it seemed to be a bright beginning for Leicester in their first season back in the Premier League since 2023. Unfortunately, due to a lack of real offensive threat, the Foxes were handed their first loss of the season to Fulham last weekend.

In that match against Fulham, there appeared to be a lack of creativity and flow through the offense. Leicester were able to fire off 10 shots, but only one of them found the back of the net. Of those 10 shots, six of them came off of set pieces, with their equalizer coming off of a Wout Faes header from a corner. It seems as if Leicester’s chances through open play this season will come sparingly as Steve Cooper tries to rebuild his offense with only a matter of hours remaining in the summer transfer window.

Adding to this transfer drama, Faes recently submitted a transfer request which is obviously a huge pain for Cooper, as Leicester’s limited defensive options become even more scarce. On the upside, Leicester have brought in some names in the midfield and offensive side with Harry Winks and Oliver Skipp being brought in, as well as Stephy Mavididi. All three of these players were able to make their debut in a 4-0 win against Tranmere Rovers in the second round of the EFL Cup this past Tuesday.

Despite their 2-0 loss at the Emirates this past weekend, I thought Villa looked fairly decent. Ollie Watkins, however, hasn’t been playing at the level we’re used to seeing from him. Although David Raya did have a phenomenal game in goal, Watkins needs to be capitalizing on some of these chances, as he’s still looking to get his first goal of the season. Thankfully for Villa, they are one of the best teams in the league on the road, especially under Unai Emery.

We’ve already gotten to see that in their first game of the season against West Ham. Even after West Ham outfitted their attack with big signings in Niclas Fulkrug and Crysencio Summerville, they strengthened their defense with Max Kilman, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, and Jean-Clair Todibo. On top of these signings, West Ham also brought in new manager Julen Lopetegui.

With the lack of chances Leicester have been creating through open play, coupled with transfer news turmoil surrounding their best defender, I fear this could be one-way traffic if the Foxes aren’t careful. Other than City and Arsenal, since Unai Emery took over for Aston Villa they have the most wins on the road in the Premier League.

Seeing what Villa were capable of doing on the road against a higher quality team in West Ham, I have to believe that Villa should win this game fairly comfortably. I don’t dislike a play on the both teams to score – no line at +125, even though Leicester are at home. With their limited options in attack, this very well could be a possibility.

I do like Aston Villa on the moneyline at -135, as well as a potential play on the alternate spread of -1.5 at +190. If Watkins and the Villa offense can establish flow early, I do believe they can keep the momentum for the majority of the game, especially with Villa having the superior midfield to win back possession of the ball, and limited swings of play from Leicester.

EPL Soccer: Leicester vs. Aston Villa:
Week 3 of the English Premier League season begins on Saturday, August 31. The 15th-ranked Leicester City Foxes face a very tough 12th-ranked Aston Villa, who nearly defeated Arsenal last week.

Leicester +347 // Aston Villa -132

Total: 2.5 (-139/+109)

Aston Villa are levels above Leicester. They were exceptional in their opening-day victory at West Ham. If it had not been for the excellence of goalkeeper David Raya, they should have beaten Arsenal last weekend.

Ollie Watkins has been sensational for Villa (and dare I say England!) but would have had a sleepless night reliving those chances he missed against the Gunners. He will look to make the hosts pay for that here in the last game before the international break.

I am not convinced by Leicester at all. Talking of missed chances, they were so lucky to draw against Tottenham in their opening game when they should have been dead and buried before the halftime whistle.

That fortunate point sees them above five teams who have yet to get off the mark this season and disguises how bad they have been across the opening two fixtures. I opposed them last week against Fulham, who got the job done, albeit after making harder work of it than they should have.

In short, this Leicester side are not good enough for the Premier League. The players they have brought in aren’t good enough. The likes of Bobby De Cordova-Reid and Jordan Ayew are journeymen on the wrong side of 30, while the main goal threat is 36-year-old Jamie Vardy.

I am unconvinced by manager Steve Cooper, who already looks fed up having seen the club’s best player, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (25), sold on. Belgian international defender Wout Faes has declared himself “not happy” and is looking for the exit door ahead of the transfer window closing on Friday night.

These two sides are heading in opposite directions. While the Foxes prepare for a relegation battle, Unai Emery will prepare his side to compete in the Champions League. Villa will get the job done here, as they have done regularly since Emery’s arrival.

Only Manchester City and Arsenal have picked up more points on the road since the Spaniard joined the Villains. In the eight road matches last term, where they started as favorites, they won five, drawn two, and lost just one. They will make the short journey back home from the King Power Stadium with another three points in the bag.

EPL Prediction: Leicester vs Aston Villa – Aston Villa to win at -132.

Everton look to earn their first points and ease some early pressure on manager Sean Dyche when they host a Bournemouth side that has drawn both league games so far to begin life after Dominic Solanke.

Everton came into the season hoping a repeat of last campaign — minus the points sanctions — would bring some mid-table boredom after multiple years of relegation stress. But the Toffees were heavily beaten in their first two games, a 3-0 home loss to Brighton that was closer than the score reflected and a 4-0 away defeat to Tottenham that wasn’t.

Bournemouth have played 1-1 draws away to Nottingham Forest and home to Newcastle United after seeing last year’s 19-goal scorer Solanke move on to Tottenham this summer. His potential replacement, the newly acquired Evanilson, failed to convert on 0.8 expected goals in his Premier League debut against Newcastle last weekend.

The home side has won the last five meetings in this series in all fixtures. That includes Everton’s 3-0 win at Goodison Park in the middle of last October, which snapped a four-match home winless run to open the previous season.

Last season, Everton’s attack was the worst in the Premier League in terms of offensive performance relative to expected goals.

And with questions still remaining up front, Dyche’s charges are going to have major issues this campaign if they generate chances as rarely as they have through two games.

Despite trailing for 141 minutes out of 180 this season — meaning there should be plenty of initiative to go forward — the Toffees have only generated 1.5 total xG and have yet to create a singular chance of 0.30 xG or above.

But Everton’s attack last season was built almost exclusively on the ability to counter, and thus not designed to overcome deficits. Of their 13 league wins a season ago, 11 came while keeping a clean sheet and none involved winning from behind.

Bournemouth may have aspirations of following follow South Coasters Brighton’s path from the lower divisions to European conversations, but it will only possible if they can sell players like Solanke for a considerable profit, then smartly reinvest the funds they receive.

Solanke completed an $85-million move to Tottenham the week before the season began. And the Cherries clearly had a plan for such an eventuality, inking Evanilson from Porto in time for him to make his debut on match day 2.

The 24-year old had a career best of 14 league goals at Porto, and center forward is a position that often sees players blossom into their most productive years in their mid-20s or later.

But the Brazilian will have to be more efficient than when he flubbed his first quality chance of his EPL career, missing the target in the 64th minute. Otherwise teams will be able to heavily shadow Cherries teammate Antoine Semenyo, who saw four of his eight shot attempts against Newcastle blocked.

Everton’s slow start is concerning but also a bit deceptive. Both losses involved early concessions — which destroys Dyche’s preferred game model — and both came to teams that I’m pretty bullish will improve relative to last season.

Couple that with a Bournemouth side that is talented but still replacing a 19-goal scorer and I think the Cherries being installed as an away favorite is a slight overreaction here.

Instead of playing the Toffees on the straight moneyline on a match where the draw is very much in play, I’m parlaying a double-chance wager with a total that comes in under 3.5 at +115 and an implied 46.5% probability.

While the Cherries often play higher scoring contests under Iraola’s press, that’s more difficult to do against an opponent that even at home won’t particularly care about possession. And of Everton’s 10 home matches taking points last season, only one saw more than 3.5 goals scored.

something is cooking with the Bochum total
GL

the Declan Rice Red Card has hurt

that DRAW at +460 looking to hit

Man City look for three wins to start the season when they travel to London to take on West Ham.

West Ham notched their first win of the season against Crystal Palace over the weekend and followed that up with a late win over Bournemouth in the EFL Cup. Even though they have won back to back matches, they really didn't look impressive doing so, as they are still having some issues switching to Julen Lopetegui's tactics.

Manchester City put in a dominant performance against Ipswich Town, winning 4-1 at home. They did fall behind early, but right after the ball went in the back of the net, they didn't let the Tractor Boys even sniff their net. They have historically dominated West Ham over the past few years and it looks like it will be more of the same on Saturday.

West Ham really weren't that impressive against Crystal Palace on Saturday. Even though they won the match 2-0, they allowed 1.81 expected goals and most importantly, they allowed the Eagles to pin them inside their own final third. For the match, Crystal Palace ended up having 22 high recoveries and a 74.3% field tilt for the match.

The problem that West Ham are running into at the moment is they are trying to go from being a team that primarily played in a low block and looked to break in transition to a team that now plays a high defensive block and builds out of the back. They have very talented players that are great on ball, but making that type of a drastic switch in tactics typically takes some time before it starts to work.

There is also the glaring hole in the middle of the pitch that West Ham need to address. Two years ago Declan Rice was their only ball stopper in the midfield and last season without him, West Ham cratered defensively into allowing the fourth-most expected goals in the Premier League. They haven't done anything significant in the transfer window to fix that issue, so Manchester City are most likely going to have a lot of success playing through the middle of the pitch.

Manchester City's match against Ipswich on Saturday looked very similar to how they were playing three years ago. Ipswich beat them on a transition break and scored, but City didn't allow them to take another shot. They quickly went up 3-1 in the first half and went back to old school Pep ball of holding the ball and not letting Ipswich even have a chance to break on them. For the match City had 406 final third touches compared to just 46 for Ipswich.

With İlkay Gündoğan back in the fold, Manchester City now have their perfect balance in the midfield that they were starving for last season. Rodri was forced to play a more advanced role with Kovacic as the more defensive midfielder, which left City without their best ball stopper when teams would break in transition. Now, it allows Rodri to play a deeper role, which ultimately gives Manchester City more control over the match.

The addition on wing of Savinho also gives Manchester City a more dangerous offensive team. Because Pep is obsessed with playing through the middle it often leaves Doku and Savinho in 1 v 1 situations against the opposing fullback, where they are able to create great chances for Haaland. West Ham have really poor defensive fullbacks, so look for City to get their wingers into good situations to beat them off the dribble.

Manchester City have completely dominated West Ham the last two seasons. They've won all four of the previous meeting in the Premier League by a combined score of 11 to 2 with expected goals favoring City 10.1 to 2.2. One other thing that has been true in those matches is West Ham have very rarely gotten into shooting opportunities.

In all four of those meetings West Ham have not taken more than six shots individually. If how they played against Crystal Palace on Saturday by getting pinned in their own final third is any indication, City might have a 90% field tilt in this game. Especially since they are coming off only giving up only one shot to Ipswich with indications that Pep is going to go back to his uber-control tactics from three years ago.

Haaland any time scorer +125

Haaland any time scorer +125 W

and quickly

if you're not playing Haaland goals , you're passing up $ 3 matches 7 goals, 3 today!
GL

Newcastle and Tottenham meet for what should be the most entertaining match of the weekend.

Newcastle secured a late draw at Bournemouth over the weekend and look really impressive offensively. Now they will be back at St. James' Park, where they have been brilliant over the past two seasons. They routed Tottenham 4-0 at home towards the end of last season because they are Ange Postecoglu's kryptonite.

Tottenham were very impressive in match week two, routing Everton 4-0 at home. Spurs have big aspirations this season to get back into the Champions League. They were poor away from home last season, especially defensively, which needs to change immediately or else Newcastle are going to run rampant again on them.

If there is a team that sets up perfectly to play against Ange Postecoglu, it’s Eddie Howe’s Newcastle. They are one of the better transition teams in the Premier League because when they win the ball as they can hit you in an instant.

They beat a full strength Tottenham towards the end of last season because of a couple different things. First up, with Spurs playing a high line, Newcastle were constantly playing balls over the top with a ton of success. Tottenham commit their fullbacks in build up to center of the pitch, which leaves van de Ven and Romero on an island. Newcastle once they won the ball were finding Isak and Gordon almost every time and getting 1 v 1 or 2 v 2 transition breaks and they scored twice off of them. For the match, Newcastle had 7 counterattacking shots, which was tied for the most in a Premier League match last season and they also ended up creating 2.8 expected goals.

What Newcastle do out of possession is going to be interesting. Against Bournemouth they opted for their usual 4-3-3 high press and had pretty good success with it, but they are in an interesting predicament having to start Dan Burn and Emil Krafth as their center back pairing. When Newcastle press high, there is no team more physical in the Premier League, which is a huge advantage they have over Spurs.

In that 4-0 win they were also incredibly dangerous on set pieces, which is still a huge weakness for Tottenham. Newcastle had the third-best xG per set piece last season and scored off a corner in that match at St. James Park.

Tottenham are going to play right into what Newcastle want, which is a high-event type match. They are going to try to build out of the back in their 2-3-5 shape and try to put as much pressure on Newcastle as possible. They did beat Newcastle 4-1 at home and created 3.8 expected goals when Newcastle were going through a rough period of injuries and fixture pile up.

What will be interesting to see is what Newcastle do out of possession. If they choose to not press high, they will typically settle in a 4-5-1 mid block, which was not successful at all when they played Tottenham in that 4-1 defeat, as they conceded 3.8 expected goals. Whatever Newcastle decide to do, it's going to create a high-event style match, which is what Tottenham want as well.

If Spurs are able to play through Newcastle's high press, it will give them overload scenarios when they break towards Newcastle's goal, which is massive advantage with Newcastle playing a makeshift center back pairing.

Dominic Solanke will be out for this match, which is a blow, but Spurs still averaged 1.77 xG per 90 minutes last season with Heung Min Son as their number nine, so it’s not as big of a blow as people may think.

The way these two teams play, this is going to be a very high-event type match. The first meeting featured 4.5 expected goals, while the second featured 3.6. Tottenham are going to try to build out of the back and one of two things are going to happen. Newcastle are going to deploy their high press and pin them in or they are going to sit back in their 4-5-1, which is going to allow Tottenham space in between the lines and eventually create a lot of chances.

If Newcastle decide to press high either they are going turn Tottenham over, which will lead to easy transition opportunities or they will play through it and have numerical advantage consistently running at Newcastle's net.

Newcastle are always so good at St. James Park and last season was no different. They averaged 2.44 xG per 90 minutes at home, while Tottenham allowed close to two expected goals per 90 minutes away from home.