Most bet (tickets) underdogs to win in College Football Week 1 at BetMGM

1. Notre Dame +125

2. North Dakota-State +270

3. West Virginia +240

Popular (+60% of bets) College Football Week 1 plays at BetMGM

83% on Alabama -31.5
83% on Boston College +15.5
73% on Colorado St +32.5
69% on Miami -2.5
68% on Akron +50.5
62% on Notre Dame +3
62% on Colorado -9.5

Early College Football Week 1 betting at BetMGM

Most bet games
1. Colorado-North Dakota St
2. Notre Dame-Texas A&M
3. Clemson-Georgia

Most bet teams
1. Colorado -9.5
2. Georgia -13.5
3. Notre Dame +3

Most bet teams $
1. Colorado -9.5
2. Georgia -13.5
3. Notre Dame +3

College Football Week 1 total betting at BetMGM

Most bet OVERs

1. Colorado-North Dakota State 59.5
2. Clemson-Georgia 48.5
3. Akron-Ohio State 59.5

Most bet UNDERs

1. Notre Dame-Texas A&M 46.5
2. Temple-Oklahoma 59.5
3. Fresno State-Michigan 45.5

Biff Poggi opened his availability stating that Charlotte is down nearly 50% of their starters ahead of Week 1.

Not good news for the 49ers.

James Madison opened 11.5 point favorites back in May

Got bet all the way down to 5.5 at some shops...

Now back on rise after this... Charlotte is +6.5 now and would imagine goes north of a TD soon

Consensus line now JMU -8.5

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #1:
Huge favorites (-37.5 points or more) have been automatic in FBS vs. FBS matchups in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013, going 14-0 SU and ATS (100%)!

When opening week lines approach the 40-point favorite level, oddsmakers perceive a massive difference between two teams in talent. In addition, the better team always played at home in these games. That comes with additional motivation as these hosts are anxious to get their promising seasons off to a good start against an opponent that is essentially powerless to stop them. The result has been easy wins and point spread covers, with these games producing an average score of 58.2-8.8 on games with average lines of -39.3. In 2023, three games applied to this system, with Alabama (-39.5) beating MTSU 56-7, Texas A&M (-38) throttling New Mexico 52-10, and USC (-37.5) whipping Nevada 66-14.

Teams qualifying for 2024: There are two games with massive lines for this year in Week 1, a little more than average since there have only been 14 in 11 seasons. These are the huge favorites that are expected to roll in their openers:

OKLAHOMA vs. Temple
OHIO STATE vs. Akron

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #2:
Home-field advantage means a lot in early season games between unfamiliar Power 4 non-conference foes. The hosts in these matchups have gone 26-13 SU and 23-13-3 ATS (63.9%) over the last decade-plus.

As I indicated in #1 above, a lot of motivation comes from playing at home in the opening week(s) of the college football season. Particularly when the opening week(s) foe is another big-name school. The only line range in which these host teams haven’t covered their point spreads over the last 10 years has been in the -7 to -18.5 range, as those hosts are just 4-8-3 ATS. Otherwise, the home teams in these early season showdowns have been nearly automatic.

Teams qualifying for 2024: There are five non-conference showdowns between Power 4 foes at campus sites this season. However, three hosts are in the -7 to -18.5 range, so tread lightly in those games. Otherwise, the other two hosts (Minnesota and Florida) will test what has become a 19-5 ATS (79.2%) trend.

North Carolina at MINNESOTA (+1.5)
TCU at STANFORD (+9.5)
Penn St at WEST VIRGINIA (+8.5)
Miami (FL) at FLORIDA (+2.5)
Virginia Tech at VANDERBILT (+13.5)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #3:
Small favorites win the early neutral field showdowns between non-conference Power 4 foes, as those laying less than a touchdown are on a 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) run since 2013.

Oddsmakers have put in the work. They know how these teams stack up against one another, particularly with the well-covered Power 4 teams. In these expectedly tight neutral field games, trust them. They usually lead you to water.

Teams qualifying for 2024: There are just two Week 0/1 non-conference Power 4 tilts to consider, but only one is expected to be highly competitive. The other boasts a line near two touchdowns. The Sunday tilt between LSU and USC in Las Vegas will once again test this angle.

Power 5 non-conference NEUTRAL games
LSU (-4.5) vs. USC

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #4:
There is a massive swing in expectation to win and/or cover when Group of 5 teams square off with Power 4 teams in Weeks 0/1 over the last decade. As hosts, the Group of 5 teams have gone 30-19 ATS (61.2%), including Nevada’s cover last week vs. SMU. On the road or in neutral games, these Group of 5 teams are 82-113 ATS (42.1%) in that same time span. Bet accordingly based upon that over 19% swing.

I must repeat, there is a lot of motivation that comes from playing at home in the opening week(s) of the college football season. Even when teams are supposedly overmatched in talent, the home field gives them the juice to compete. These same overmatched teams have trouble staying in games when on the road. There are a lot of Group of 5-Power 4 matchups every year; be sure to follow this trend while it continues.

Teams qualifying for 2024: By my count, there are 21 games scheduled in Week 1 that pit Group of 5 conference teams versus Power 4 foes and only one of the Group of 5 teams is at home. The rest are in true road games. The latter are a typically difficult way to start a season.

Group of 5 HOME TEAMS vs. Power 4 foes (follow these home teams)
HAWAII vs. UCLA

Group of 5 ROAD TEAMS vs. Power 5 foes (fade these road teams)
Temple at OKLAHOMA
Western Michigan at WISCONSIN
Florida Atlantic at MICHIGAN STATE
Florida International at INDIANA
Kent State at PITTSBURGH
Connecticut at MARYLAND
Ohio at SYRACUSE
Georgia State at GEORGIA TECH
Old Dominion at SOUTH CAROLINA
Southern Miss at KENTUCKY
Akron at OHIO STATE
New Mexico at ARIZONA
Wyoming at ARIZONA STATE
Colorado State at TEXAS
UTEP at NEBRASKA
Miami (OH) at NORTHWESTERN
UNLV at HOUSTON
Western Kentucky at ALABAMA
Fresno State at MICHIGAN
Notre Dame at TEXAS A&M

Early College Football Week 1 betting at BetMGM

Most bet games
1. Colorado-North Dakota St
2. Notre Dame-Texas A&M
3. Clemson-Georgia

Most bet teams
1. Colorado -9.5
2. Georgia -13.5
3. Notre Dame +3

Most bet teams $
1. Colorado -9.5
2. Georgia -13.5
3. Notre Dame +3

College Football Week 1 total betting at BetMGM

Most bet OVERs

1. Clemson-Georgia 48.5
2. Temple-Oklahoma 57.5
3. Akron-Ohio State 58.5

Most bet UNDERs

1. Notre Dame-Texas A&M 46
2. Miami-Florida 54
3. Penn State-West Virginia 51.5

Most bet (tickets) Underdogs to win in College Football Week 1 at BetMGM

1. Notre Dame +125

2. West Virginia +240

3. Florida +120

Popular (+60% of bets) College Football Week 1 plays at BetMGM

84% on Alabama -31.5
73% on Colorado St +32.5
67% on Boston College +16.5
64% on Miami -2.5
63% on Georgia -12.5
61% on Oklahoma -42.5
60% on Notre Dame +3

Major blow to Pitt 24 hours before the season starts, RB Rodney Hammond Jr. was declared ineligible for the season for unstated reasons. Hammond was on the Doak Walker preseason watchlist and had 45% of Pitt's rushing yards last year.

New Mexico played last week, and it's well-documented that teams playing in Week 0 don't have an advantage.

What happens when a team has to play in Week 0 and the other team doesn't?

New Mexico had to prepare for another opponent. Arizona didn't.
The Lobos had to put some things on tape. Now, the Wildcats can adjust their game plan as needed.
FBS teams playing their season opener against an opponent that has already played have covered at a 60-34 ATS (63.8%) clip since 2005, including 4-1 against the closing number last season.

On paper, you might say UNM's 35-31 loss to Montana State was a valiant effort. But remember, the market kept betting against the Lobos against an FCS team that had pieces to replace for a reason.

New Mexico got dominated statistically. It gave up 567 yards and benefited from two scoop-and-scores, pointing to some turnover luck.

Bronco Mendenhall will probably get it turned around at some point, but it's going to take some time.

This New Mexico defense doesn't look like it's going to put up much resistance, so Arizona should score at will here.

There are questions on this Arizona roster, including depth on the defensive line and wide receiver outside of Tetairoa McMillan. Plus, the Wildcats have to replace a pro at left tackle.

However, I don't think New Mexico can exploit any of those issues.

The Wildcats also return quarterback Noah Fifita, who was great to bettors a season ago. The Fifita-McMillan connection should prove to be dominant against a porous Lobos defense.

NCAAF favorites swept 4-0 SU on Friday night, but underdogs led 3-1 ATS w/ FAU +13 at Michigan State, Western Michigan +24 at Wisconsin & Stanford +8 vs. TCU covered in losses; Oklahoma -43 vs. Temple only chalk to cover; home teams 3-1 SU but 2-2 ATS; Unders 3-1

Clemson vs Georgia (-13.5) (@ Atlanta)
Clemson was 9-4 LY, their worst season since going 6-7 in 2010.
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tigers have 106 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Klubnik has 14 career starts.

Last ten years, Clemson is 3-3 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2018, Tigers are 11-18 ATS outside the ACC.
Since 2019, Tigers are 3-2 ATS in their season opener.
Last ten years, Clemson is 16-7 ATS on neutral fields.

Last seven years, Georgia is 86-11 SU, 54-42-1 ATS.
Dawgs have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Georgia has 87 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Beck started 14 games LY.

Last two years, Georgia is 3-7-1 ATS in non-league games.
Last two years, Dawgs are 8-12-2 ATS as a favorite.
Last ten years, Georgia is 21-11 ATS on neutral fields.
Georgia is 5-5 SU/ATS in last 10 games on this field.

Georgia won four of last five meetings.
Dawgs (+3) won last meeting 10-3 on a neutral field in 2021.
Last year, ACC teams were 7-3 ATS against SEC opponents.

Penn State (-8.5) @ West Virginia
Last two years, Penn State was 11-2/10-3 SU, 18-7-1 ATS.
Nittany Lions have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Penn State has 45 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Allar started 13 games last year.

Under Franklin, Penn State is 51-34-3 ATS as a favorite.
Under Franklin, Penn State is 19-12 ATS as a road favorite.
Last two years, Nittany Lions are +27 in turnovers in 26 games.
Before LY, last series game was in 1992; this used to be huge rivalry.

WVU was 9-4 last year, their best season since 2016.
Mountaineers have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Mountaineers have 113 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Greene has 14 career starts.

Since 2016, WVU is 6-9-1 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Brown is 25-22 ATS as an underdog.
Last two years, WVU was 6-1 ATS in non-conference games.
Last 3 years, Mountaineers are 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in season openers.

Penn State (-20) beat West Virginia 38-15 LY, throwing for 332 yards.
Last three years, Big X teams were 7-4 ATS vs Big 18 opponents.

Miami (-2.5) @ Florida
Last two years, Miami was 5-7/7-6 SU, a combined 8-17 ATS
Miami has 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Hurricanes have 121 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Ward has 25 career starts; he bolted from Washington State.

Since 2019, Hurricanes are 4-7 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Cristobal is 15-11-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2015, Miami 10-18 ATS in non-league games.
This is Miami’s first visit to the Swamp since 2008.

Last three years, Gators were 6-7/6-7/5-7.
Six years before that, Gators were 52-24; the natives are restless.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Gators have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Mertz has 43 career starts, 32 at Wisconsin.

Last three years, Florida is 14-23-1 ATS.
In his career, Napier is 18-7-1 ATS as an underdog, 5-2 at home.
Since 2018, Gators are 5-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Florida is 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 non-conference games.

Miami won five of last seven series games.
Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in last five series games.
Last meeting was in 2019.
Last four series games stayed under the total.
Last year, ACC teams were 7-3 ATS against SEC opponents.

Boise State (-13) @ Georgia Southern
Broncos fired their coach LY after a 5-5 start, won 4 of last 5 games.
Boise has 6 starters back on offense, all 11 on defense.
Broncos have 66 starts returning on the offensive line.
Soph QB Madsen (132 pass attempts LY) will start at QB

Last four years, Broncos are 6-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Boise is 2-7-1 ATS in last eight non-conference games.
Broncos are 8-2 ATS in last ten road openers.
Last three years, Boise is 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in season openers.

Georgia Southern was 6-7/6-7 in Helton’s first two years as HC.
GSU has 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Eagles have 50 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB/new starter French threw only 16 passes LY.

Under Helton, GSU is 6-4 ATS in non-league games.
Since 2018, Eagles are 8-6 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Helton is 4-3 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Helton is 25-20 ATS in home games.

These teams have never met.
Since 2016, Mountain West teams are 14-7-2 ATS vs Sun Belt opponents.