NRFI -120 (Play to -130)

Starting Pitchers: Nick Pivetta vs. Tarik Skubal

Boston is on the wrong side of their platoon splits against the left-handed Tarik Skubal, losing 10 points in wRC+ as a team. Of course, Skubal isn't just a garden-variety lefty. He's got a 2.58 overall ERA that drops to 1.49 his first time through the order.

Pivetta's numbers aren't quite as good, but he has a 3.80 ERA and 3.20 xFIP his first time through the order. All of his underlying metrics are lower than his ERA, probably due to playing in Boston — the second-best hitters park in all of baseball.

The move to Comerica (22nd in Park Factor) should help for Pivetta, while the Tigers offense is still a bit below average. That's enough to play this one at relatively low juice.

NRFI -108 (Play to -125)

Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans vs. Yusei Kikuchi

This game features two left-handed pitchers, and tow teams with slightly worse wRC+ numbers against lefties. On top of that, both starters have excellent first time through the order numbers.

Cole Ragans comes into the contest with a 2.34 ERA early in games, while Kikuchi is at 3.07 (with a better xFIP). The Houston lineup is a bit more threatening than the Royals, but they have the tougher task against Ragans.