YRFI -105 (Play to -120)

Starting Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi vs. Carlos Rodon

The total in this game has jumped to 9.0 almost everywhere — with the notable exception of Caesars — making this a fairly significant projection edge in my models.

There's a few reasons behind that. Most important is the Yankees lineup, which hits righties better than any team in baseball. They're also very top heavy, with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge getting guaranteed first inning at bats.

Texas isn't quite as strong, but they're on the stronger side of their platoon splits by a decent amount against the lefty Carlos Rodon. Rodon has a 4.37 overall ERA that jumps to 4.68 his first time through the order, which certainly helps the Rangers' chances of cashing the YRFI for us.

Plus, we're expecting excellent hitting weather in New York, an added bonus.

YRFI -108 (Play to -115)

Starting Pitchers: Patrick Corbin vs. Griffin Canning

I have a similar projection in this game as in Yankees-Rangers, despite considerably worse offenses.

That's due to the (lack of) quality of the starting pitcher sin this one, both of whom have overall ERAs in the upper fives. They aren't exactly fast starters either, with first time through the order ERAs of 5.40 (Corbin) and 5.96 (Canning).

Like our earlier pick, this game has a nine-run total, and both teams on the better side of their platoon splits. There's not quite as much room for error on the available lines, but it's worth taking at a few books.

NRFI -130 (Play to -140)

Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea vs. Logan Gilbert

This isn't the smash spot that "Mariners home NRFI" has been for much of the season, but I'm still projecting a decent edge.

The reason it's a bit riskier is because of the quality of the Mets bats, plus the Mariners acquisition of Randy Arozarena at the trade deadline. That move makes the Mariners considerably better against lefties, like Sean Manaea who they're facing today.

However, this game still has a 7.5-run total that's juiced to the under, and is taking place at the best pitcher's park in baseball.

Both starters have overall ERAs in the low threes, and first time through the order marks in the low twos. That's enough to pay the juice at -130 on, even with the other drawbacks mentioned.