Rinky Hijikata vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Dimitrov has been one of the best players in the world this season. However, the Bulgarian did suffer an abductor tear at Wimbledon, and this will be his first singles match since then. Dimitrov also happens to be moving right from grass courts to hard courts, which is also a bit of a difficult transition. With that in mind, I don’t think we’re going to see the very best of the 33-year-old here. That should open up some opportunities for Hijikata to make his mark on this match.

Hijikata might not be a household name, but the Australian has been playing some solid tennis recently. Hijikata is actually 8-5 in his last 13 matches, and some of those wins were impressive. Hijikata has also won three matches in Montreal already, as he had to go through qualifiers to get into the main draw. He then beat Taro Daniel in straight sets in the opening round. That said, Hijikata will be ready to go from the first ball here, and he’s not going to make it easy on Dimitrov to settle into this match. Hijikata is a very clean ball striker, capable of punishing the ball from the baseline. He has also made at least 70% of his first serves in 10 of his last 13 matches. Well, if Hijikata continues to hit his spots with his serve, while also playing quick-strike tennis from the baseline, it’s hard to imagine Dimitrov running away with this match.

Overall, I expect the Bulgarian to find a way to win this one outright. After all, he is as high as a -700 favorite to do so. But it’s hard to turn down Hijikata to win a set at these odds.

Bet: Hijikata To Win A Set (+150)

Paula Badosa vs. Jelena Ostapenko

Badosa won a 500-level title in Washington D.C. last week, and it doesn’t seem like we’re getting a letdown from her. Badosa beat up on Clara Tauson in her opening-round match in Toronto, winning 6-1, 6-4 in impressive fashion. Now it feels like Badosa has what it takes to beat Ostapenko on Thursday. This might be a tough play to come around on, as Ostapenko is a tremendous talent and is the world No. 11. However, the Latvian’s last two singles matches were played on grass and clay, so she’s going to have to get used to playing on hard courts. She also happens to be coming into this one on a two-match losing streak, so it’s not like she’ll have much momentum. Badosa also won the last time these two met on a hard court, as the Spaniard earned a 7-6 (1), 6-1 win over Ostapenko in Sydney in 2022. That was obviously a long time ago, but Badosa has a higher winning percentage on this surface than Ostapenko. She’s also in better form right now.

This will definitely be a match in which both players bash the ball from the baseline, but I just don’t see as many errors coming from Badosa’s racquet. She’s in a nice groove at the moment, while Ostapenko is going to need to play her way into form before the US Open. Badosa also happens to be a much better server, which is going to be crucial in these conditions. The Spaniard’s hold percentage is 75.1% on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, which is a lot higher than Ostapenko’s 69.2% in that span. These small things should add up to another win for the scorching hot Badosa.

Bet: Badosa ML (-163 – 1.5 units)