Roman Safiullin vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – Montreal

I just feel that the wrong player is favored in this match. Even when Davidovich Fokina is firing on all cylinders, I’m not sure the Spaniard is a whole lot better than Safiullin. So, getting a good number on the Russian to win against this version of Davidovich Fokina is a no-brainer. Since April, the Spaniard is 6-8 in the 14 matches he has played. Davidovich Fokina has also dealt with on-and-off health issues over the last few months, so he hasn’t had time to find a rhythm. And he looked visibly gassed in his brutal collapse against Flavio Cobolli in Washington D.C. last week.

If Davidovich Fokina doesn’t have the stamina to keep rallies alive and hope for Safiullin misses, I’m just not sure how he can be expected to win this one. Safiullin has just as much firepower from the baseline, but he’s playing much cleaner tennis lately. Safiullin scored some impressive wins at the Olympics, beating Alejandro Tabilo and Tomas Martin Etcheverry. He also played a pretty good match against Carlos Alcaraz.

This just feels like a match that should go the way of the Russian. The fact that Davidovich Fokina isn’t a reliable server only reinforces that. I need to see a much better level from the Spaniard before backing him in matchups that would be 50-50 if he was at 100%.

Bet: Safiullin ML (+130 – 1.5 units)

Alexei Popyrin vs. Tomas Machac – Montreal

Popyrin has one of the biggest serves on the ATP Tour, so it’s going to be hard for opponents to pick it up on these fast courts. However, Machac is a rock-solid returner and happens to be playing some fantastic tennis heading into this event. Machac only won one singles match at the Olympic Games, but he did win gold in the mixed doubles tournament. He also went to the semifinals in men’s doubles. All in all, he had some nice time to sharpen his skills a bit. Machac will now look to find some more success in singles in 2024, and he’ll be doing so on hard courts. Machac is 15-9 on this surface over the last 52 weeks, so I think he’s in for a solid ending to this career year.

The reality here is that Popyrin might be a good server, but the same can be said about Machac. Over the last 52 weeks, Machac’s hold percentage is up at 84.3% on hard courts. That’s not much worse than Popyrin’s 85.4% in that same span. But Machac’s break percentage of 23.5% is a lot better than Popyrin’s 18.0%. And that should ultimately make the difference here. Machac should be able to give himself more opportunities to break, and I trust him to cash in eventually. He’s also just a much better baseline player.

Machac also beat Popyrin pretty easily when the two met at Indian Wells in 2022, earning a 6-3, 7-5 victory. Those were obviously much slower conditions, but it was also a worse version of Machac. His major improvements since then should be enough to overcome the court speeds in Montreal.

Bet: Machac ML (-138)

Marie Bouzkova vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia – Toronto

Bouzkova went all the way to the final in Washington D.C., losing a tough three-set match against Paula Badosa. But overall, it was a great week for her. The problem is that Bouzkova now has to quickly turn around and find that level again. And she’ll have to do it in a tournament with a lot more talent. In fact, Bouzkova is 0-3 against her opening-round opponent, and I think that’s going to move to 0-4.

Haddad Maia has emerged victorious in three highly competitive matches with Bouzkova, as all of them were decided in the third set. But at a certain point that starts to creep into a player’s mind. And not only will Bouzkova be dealing with that mentally, she could also be a little fatigued after having played five matches last week. The latter is especially important against a player like Haddad Maia, who absolutely grinds. She’s going to demand absolutely everything out of Bouzkova. I’m not sure that’s what Bouzkova wants after a long week.

I also like Haddad Maia on a quick court. She plays her best tennis on grass. These conditions won’t be as fast, but they should similarly reward her skill set. Haddad Maia is aggressive and likes to win points at the net. Well, these conditions should allow her to do a lot of that on her own serve. And I think her returning will give Bouzkova some trouble.

Bet: Haddad Maia ML (+120)