Borna Coric vs. Jakub Mensik – Montreal (Qualifiers)

This match was supposed to be played on Monday, but the rain pushed it to Tuesday morning. Hopefully that allows some extra people to jump on it. Mensik beat Coric in a tight three-set match in February, but that was back when the Czech was scorching hot. He made a run all the way to the final in Doha, which is where he beat Coric. However, the youngster’s level has come down quite a bit since then. And I happen to like the way that Coric is playing right now.

Coric suffered an early loss at Wimbledon and has lost in the first round of each of his last two tournaments. However, the Croatian has been slowly working his way back from an injury, and I thought he looked sharp in his loss to Emil Ruusuvuori in D.C. Coric also played well in a straight-set win over Liam Draxl in qualifying. It just feels like Coric is starting to get his legs underneath him, and this is generally the part of the season in which he comes alive. He won a 1000-level title in Cincinnati just two years ago. So, this is a dangerous opponent for Mensik, who could have some tired legs himself. Mensik’s match against Taha Baadi was pretty physical on Sunday and he was coming off a two-week stretch in which he played a lot of tennis. Mensik made a deep run in Umag and then went right to the Olympics. I wonder if he’ll be a little fatigued here.

Realistically, there’s just not much that separates these two players. We saw that in Mensik’s 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 (7) win over Coric in Doha, and I feel better about the Croatian’s game right now. I also think that Coric has been around the block and is a true tour professional. He should come correct with some adjustments here, while Mensik might just rely on his talent. These odds are just too hard to pass up given these two stand on pretty equal footing.

Bet: Coric ML (+125 – 2 units)

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs. Victoria Azarenka – Toronto

I had no problem fading Pavlyuchenkova at the Citi Open last week. She just hasn’t been in great form lately, and she was playing a tough opponent in Amanda Anisimova. Well, Pavlyuchenkova nearly won that match. It ended up being a 6-1, 6-7 (4), 6-4 win for Anisimova, and I was pretty impressed with Pavlyuchenkova’s level. Now I’m rolling with her to win a set off Azarenka, who was pretty disappointing in the nation’s capital.

Azarenka did win two matches in last week’s tournament, but they were close calls against Hailey Baptiste and Yafan Wang. In both matches, Azarenka was struggling with her range from the baseline, spraying errors all over the court. That’s concerning for a player that can occasionally struggle with her serve. Azarenka also followed those wins up with a lousy loss to Aryna Sabalenka, who made relatively quick work of her.

Azarenka has had success against Pavlyuchenkova in their head-to-head history, but I just can’t see the two-time Grand Slam champion running away with this. Pavlyuchenkova might not move very well, but she’s a very clean ball striker and will like the fast conditions in Toronto. I see her pushing Azarenka around from the baseline a little, and she won’t hesitate to punish any slow second serves that her opponent rolls into the box. And we have seen Azarenka do that when her confidence is shaken as a server.

Bet: Pavlyuchenkova +1.5 Sets (-132 – 2 units)