NRFI -125 (Play to -135)

Starting Pitchers: Bailey Falter vs. Dylan Cease

There are two big factors that pushed me from "on the fence" to making this bet.

The first is the line at BetMGM. At -125, it's at least ten cents better than the lines elsewhere, a good indicator that it's worth taking.

More importantly, both teams are on the wrong side of their platoon splits in a big way. The Padres are a top-three offense against righties but rank 16th against lefties like Bailey Falter.

Pittsburgh goes from nearly average against lefties to terrible against righties, ranking 28th in wRC+.

With both starters having good but not great numbers early in games, those platoon splits make all the difference.

YRFI -105 (Play to -115)

Starting Pitchers: Chris Bassitt vs. Grayson Rodriguez

This is a very reasonable price on a YRFI considering the offenses involved, mainly Baltimore, whose lineup starts with four straight hitters who have a 120 or better wRC+ on the season.

Toronto is less impressive overall, but they give us a guaranteed at-bat from Vladdy Guerrero Jr., who has a top-ten wRC+ and has been on an absolute tear lately.

YRFI -105 (Play to -120)

Starting Pitchers: Colin Rea vs. Bryce Elder

Since the open, the total in this game has gone up a full run, moving from 8.0 to 9.0. Even if that's the peak, a -105 YRFI is fairly notable.

Both pitchers have first-time through-the-order xFIPs in the upper fours, so those nine runs should be at least somewhat front-loaded. Injuries have made both teams tops of the orders less dangerous than they once were, but we still have some fairly solid hitters coming to the plate.