4:10 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres (-210, 8)

This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Rockies (41-71) took the opener 5-2, cashing as +155 road dogs. Then the Padres (60-52) bounced back with a 3-2 win yesterday, taking care of business as -210 home favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, the Rockies hand the ball to righty Cal Quantrill (7-7, 4.50 ERA) and the Padres counter with fellow righty Matt Waldron (6-9, 3.89 ERA). This line opened with San Diego listed as a -175 home favorite and Colorado a +150 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Padres, steaming San Diego up from -175 to -210. The Padres are receiving 91% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars, a heavy “low bets, higher dollars” dose of both Pro and Joe support in addition to a massive steam move in their favor. Sunday home favorites playing teams who missed the postseason the previous year are 76-43 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites -200 or more are 73-28 (72%) with a 3% ROI this season. San Diego has correlative betting value as a bigger favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Padres have the better bats, hitting .263 with 516 runs scored compared to the Rockies hitting .243 with 475 runs scored. Colorado is 17-42 on the road this season, the second worst road record in MLB.

4:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-115, 7) at Seattle Mariners

The Mariners (59-53) have taken the first two games of this Interleague Series, winning the opener 10-2 as -115 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 6-5 in extra innings as -115 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Phillies (65-45) start righty Zack Wheeler (10-5, 2.94 ERA) and the Mariners send out fellow righty Logan Gilbert (6-7, 3.11 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -125 road favorite and Seattle a +110 home dog. The public says the Phillies can’t possibly be swept and are rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with Philadelphia. However, despite receiving 74% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Phillies fall from -125 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Mariners as the line is moving in the direction (+110 to +100) despite being the unpopular side. Wheeler has a 3.61 ERA on the road compared to 2.48 at home. Gilbert has a 2.89 ERA at home compared to 3.30 on the road. The Mariners are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .240 with a 3.50 team ERA. The Phillies are 2-8 over their last ten games, hitting .228 with a 5.13 team ERA. The Phillies have struggled against good teams this season, going 18-20 (47%) with a -15% ROI against teams with winning records. Seattle is 7-5 (58%) with a 25% ROI as a home dog this season.