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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Preseason QB Rotations
When betting the preseason, information is the key to unlocking edges. In the case of this curtain-raiser in Canton, the info that was anticipated — most starters will be sitting for both teams — was made public early in the week. For most, the Bears-Texans matchup appears to be a coin flip that might be worth only an entertainment bet. Still, there will be wagering action and a lot of it because football is finally back.
Disregard the critics who claim preseason wagering is solely for clowns and degenerates — every bookmaker will say that’s an uneducated perception. The truth is several sharp bettors want in on the action in August, when getting info early can mean getting the best of the number.
Of the many angles to consider, quarterback rotations are arguably most important to handicappers. Instead of dancing with the stars, you are betting on the backups. Do the Jets have enough firepower in reserve to win games while Aaron Rodgers is taking vacation days?
Rodgers is not expected to take a preseason snap, yet the Jets have an appealing QB depth chart highlighted by veteran Tyrod Taylor, who has started 58 career games. Playing behind Taylor will be Adrian Martinez, who was recently signed after earning UFL MVP honors for the Birmingham Stallions, and undrafted rookie Andrew Peasley from Wyoming.
Martinez, a former Nebraska and Kansas State star, is an intriguing player due to his running ability. When reserve offensive linemen are logging a lot of minutes in preseason games, a running quarterback can get out of the pocket and make something out of broken plays. Jordan Travis, a fifth-round pick from Florida State, is not expected to play for the Jets this month while recovering from a serious leg injury.
The Browns could have the best NFL preseason quarterback rotation in the league. Behind starter Deshaun Watson, who needs significant playing time, Cleveland has a proven veteran (Jameis Winston) and two running threats (Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Tyler Huntley.)
In addition to the Browns and Jets, the Bengals, Colts, Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, Saints, and Texans should field the most effective quarterback rotations.
The Raiders should have a productive quarterback duel between Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell, and the Steelers could see a competition develop between Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.
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08-03-24 01:26 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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ARIZONA: Kyler Murray, Desmond Ridder, Clayton Tune
ATLANTA: Kirk Cousins, Michael Penix Jr., Taylor Heinicke, John Paddock
BALTIMORE: Lamar Jackson, Josh Johnson, Devin Leary, Emory Jones
BUFFALO: Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky, Shane Buechele
CAROLINA: Bryce Young, Andy Dalton, Jack Plummer
CHICAGO: Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien, Austin Reed
CINCINNATI: Joe Burrow, Jake Browning, Logan Woodside, Rocky Lombardi
CLEVELAND: Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Tyler Huntley
DALLAS: Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush, Trey Lance
DENVER: Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham, Zach Wilson
DETROIT: Jared Goff, Hendon Hooker, Nate Sudfeld
GREEN BAY: Jordan Love, Sean Clifford, Michael Pratt, Jacob Eason
HOUSTON: CJ Stroud, Davis Mills, Case Keenum, Tim Boyle
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08-03-24 01:26 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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INDIANAPOLIS: Anthony Richardson, Joe Flacco, Sam Ehlinger, Kedon Slovis, Jason Bean
JACKSONVILLE: Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, CJ Beathard
KANSAS CITY: Patrick Mahomes, Carson Wentz, Chris Oladokun, Ian Book
LAS VEGAS: Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, Anthony Brown, Carter Bradley
LA CHARGERS: Justin Herbert, Easton Stick, Max Duggan, Casey Bauman
LA RAMS: Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo, Stetson Bennett, Dresser Winn
MIAMI: Tua Tagovailoa, Mike White, Skylar Thompson
MINNESOTA: Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy, Nick Mullens, Jaren Hall
NEW ENGLAND: Jacoby Brissett, Drake Maye, Bailey Zappe, Joe Milton
NEW ORLEANS: Derek Carr, Jake Haener, Spencer Rattler, Nathan Peterman
NY GIANTS: Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito
NY JETS: Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor, Adrian Martinez, Andrew Peasley
PHILADELPHIA: Jalen Hurts, Kenny Pickett, Tanner McKee, Will Grier
PITTSBURGH: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Kyle Allen, John Rhys Plumlee
SAN FRANCISCO: Brock Purdy, Joshua Dobbs, Brandon Allen, Tanner Mordecai
SEATTLE: Geno Smith, Sam Howell, PJ Walker
TAMPA BAY: Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask, John Wolford, Zack Annexstad
TENNESSEE: Will Levis, Mason Rudolph, Malik Willis
WASHINGTON: Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota, Sam Hartman, Jeff Driskel
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08-03-24 01:26 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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1. LINE RANGES have proven very telling
Oddsmakers have essentially led bettors to water in the preseason, although it is easy to see how these prices can seem tricky. Since 2010, 13 teams have been favored by more than seven points. Nine of these heavy favorites won their games outright, but they were 4-9 ATS (30.8%). At the same time, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 143-112-4 ATS for 56.1%. However, most games tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those are where the underdogs thrive. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 162-110 ATS, good for 59.6%. On that last angle, underdogs in ’23 went 13-8 ATS.
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08-06-24 10:44 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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2. HOME-FIELD advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games
In the last 12 NFL preseasons, home teams finished .500 or better against the spread only twice. Last year, hosts were just 21-27 ATS. If you’re simply guessing on these games, or wagering them for fun, side with the road teams, as the points given to hosts by oddsmakers for their supposed home-field advantage tend to tip the ATS ledger to the visitors. In fact, since 2011, road teams own a 370-328 ATS edge, good for 53%, and essentially enough to make a reasonable profit without any other handicapping considered. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is when they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 75-38 ATS as such since 2015, good for 66.4%. On cue, these road underdogs in ’23 went 6-3 ATS.
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08-06-24 10:44 PM |
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