St Louis (56-54) @ Cubs (54-58)
— Gibson is 1-1, 4.35 in his last four starts
— Cardinals are 6-4 in his road starts.
— over 10-3 last 13 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-20
— record in first 5 innings: 7-10-3
— He is 1-4, 5.46 in six starts vs the Cubs.

— Cardinals are 3-6 in last nine games.
— They’re 27-29 on road.
— over 7-1 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 24-110
— record in first 5 innings: 41-50-19
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-1.2-3

— Taillon is 3-1, 198 in his last four home starts.
— Chicago is 5-9 in his last 14 starts.
— under 6-3 last nine starts.
— allowed run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 9-8-1
— He is 6-2, 3.45 in 15 starts vs St Louis.

— Cubs are 5-2 in their last seven games.
— They’re 29-25 at home.
— under 9-5 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 23-112
— record in first 5 innings: 44-50-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-2.1-5

Arizona (59-51) @ Pittsburgh (55-54)
— Montgomery is 1-1, 11.57 in his last three starts.
— Arizona is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— over 8-3 last 11 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 9-5-1
— He is 1-3, 2.63 in four starts vs Pittsburgh

— Arizona is 14-4 in its last 18 games.
— Diamondbacks are 28-26 on road.
— over 8-2 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 35-110
— record in first 5 innings: 51-40-19
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-4

— Keller is 1-0, 2.52 in his last four starts.
— Pittsburgh is 12-2 in his last 14 starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 4-21
— record in first 5 innings: 11-7-3
— He is 1-0, 2.49 in four starts vs Arizona.

— Pirates are 12-7 in their last 19 games.
— They’re 26-27 at home.
— over 5-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 21-109
— record in first 5 innings: 46-43-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-3.2

Milwaukee (62-47) @ Washington (49-61)
— Civale is 0-1, 5.14 in four starts for Milwaukee.
— Brewers are 1-3 in his starts.
— over 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-1
— He gave up 2 runs in 5.2 IP, in his one start vs Washington

— Brewers are 3-4 in their last seven games.
— They’re 31-26 on road.
— over 5-1-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 29-109
— record in first 5 innings: 50-44-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-4

— Herz is 0-3, 5.40 in his last five starts.
— Washington is 3-6 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four starts
— allowed run in first inning: 1-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Milwaukee.

— Nationals are 2-8 in last ten games.
— They’re 23-28 at home.
— over 6-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 18-110
— record in first 5 innings: 43-55-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-x-3.1

San Francisco (55-56) @ Cincinnati (52-57)
— Harrison is 2-0, 1.06 in his last three starts.
— Giants are 12-6 in his starts.
— over 7-3 last ten starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-18
— record in first 5 innings: 8-7-3
— He is 1-0, 2.38 in two starts vs Cincinnati.

— San Francisco is 6-1 in its last seven games.
— Giants are 22-33 on road.
— under 12-4 last 16 games
— scored run in first inning: 25-111
— record in first 5 innings: 46-49-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x

— Greene is 2-0, 0.33 in his last four starts.
— Reds are 7-14 in his starts.
— over 3-1 last four home starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-21
— record in first 5 innings: 10-6-5
— He allowed an unearned run in 5.1 IP, in his one start vs SF.

— Reds are 5-4 in their last nine games.
— They’re 27-30 at home.
— under 8-2 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 30-109
— record in first 5 innings: 49-46-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-x-4.2

Miami (40-70) @ Atlanta (60-49)
— Tyler is 0-2, 4.76 in five starts.
— Marlins are 2-3 in his starts.
— over 3-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 3-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Atlanta

— Marlins are 1-4 in their last five games.
— Miami is 18-36 on road.
— over 18-8-1 last 27 games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-110
— record in first 5 innings: 36-64-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3-4

— Holmes allowed a run in 5 IP in his first start (70 PT).
— Atlanta is 0-1 in his starts.
— over 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0
— This is his first start vs Miami

— Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games.
— They’re 32-21 at home.
— under 24-11 last 35 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-109
— record in first 5 innings: 51-43-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-3-2

Colorado (41-70) @ San Diego (58-52)
— Gordon is 0-3, 8.81 in three starts.
— Colorado is 0-3 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-3
— He hasn’t pitched against San Diego.

— Rockies won their last three games.
— They’re 17-41 on road.
— over 9-4 last 13 road games
— scored run in first inning: 30-111
— record in first 5 innings: 40-56-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-4-2

— Perez is making his first start for the Padres.
— He is 1-1, 4.98 in his last four starts.
— Pittsburgh was 6-10 in his starts.
— over 6-3 last nine starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-16
— record in first 5 innings: 5-7-4
— He is 2-3, 3.92 in seven starts vs Colorado.

— Padres won nine of last 11 games.
— Padres have lost five in a row against Colorado.
— They’re 28-29 at home.
— over 6-2 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 30-111
— record in first 5 innings: 48-48-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-3.1-4

Baltimore (65-46) @ Cleveland (67-42)
— Eflin gave up 3 runs in 6 IP in his first start for Orioles.
— Orioles are 1-0 in his starts.
— over 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 6-20
— record in first 5 innings: 9-9-2
— He gave up six runs in 3 IP, in his one start vs Cleveland.

— Baltimore is 4-3 in its last seven games.
— Orioles are 31-21 on road.
— over 14-2 last 16 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-111
— record in first 5 innings: 59-41-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3.2-3

— bullpen game

— Cleveland is 8-2 in its last ten games.
— Guardians are 35-15 at home.
— under 12-5 last 17 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-109
— record in first 5 innings: 52-42-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3-4.2

Kansas City (62-49) @ Detroit (52-59)
— Lorenzen is making his first start for the Royals.
— He was 0-2, 9.28 in his last three starts for Texas.
— Texas was 5-13 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 9-5-4
— He is 2-1, 2.30 in 7 games (2 starts) vs Detroit.
— He pitched for the Tigers last year.

— Royals won their last five games.
— Royals are 26-27 on road
— over 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 31-111
— record in first 5 innings: 53-42-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-1-3.1

— bullpen game

— Detroit is 3-9 in its last 12 games.
— Tigers are 25-30 at home.
— over 9-5 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 34-111
— record in first 5 innings: 43-50-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2-2.2

Toronto (51-59) @ Bronx (65-46)
— Berrios is 1-2, 5.17 in his last three starts.
— Toronto is 2-6 in his last eight road starts.
— over 7-1 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 5-22
— record in first 5 innings: 8-12-2
— He is 4-7, 4.96 in 13 starts vs New York.

— Toronto lost three of its last five games.
— Blue Jays are 25-31 on road.
— over 29-6 last 35 games
— scored run in first inning: 27-110
— record in first 5 innings: 46-51-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-x-4.1

— Rodon is 2-0, 2.03 in his last two starts.
— New York is 5-3 in his home starts.
— over 14-3 last 17 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 8-22
— record in first 5 innings: 11-9-2
— He is 0-2, 11.00 in two starts vs Toronto TY.

— New York won five of its last six games.
— They’re 27-24 at home.
— over 27-9 last 36 games
— scored run in first inning: 38-111
— record in first 5 innings: 56-42-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-x-6.1

Boston (58-50) @ Texas (52-58)
— Houck is 1-1, 4.00 in his last three starts.
— Boston is 9-3 in his last 12 starts.
— over 7-3 last 10
— allowed run in first inning: 3-21
— record in first 5 innings: 11-7-3
— He is starts vs Texas.

— Red Sox are 5-8 since All-Star break.
— They’re 31-22 on road.
— over 10-2 last 12 games
— scored run in first inning: 34-108
— record in first 5 innings: 58-39-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-x-3.2

— Texas hasn’t named a starter.

— Rangers lost six of last seven games.
— Texas is 8-3 in last 11 home games.
— over 8-1 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 37-110
— record in first 5 innings: 47-46-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3.2-5

White Sox (27-85) @ Minnesota (60-48)
— Crochet is 0-2, 3.86 in his last six starts.
— Chicago lost his last seven starts.
— under 16-6
— allowed run in first inning: 3-22
— record in first 5 innings: 8-9-5
— He is 0-1, 7.00 in two starts vs Minnesota TY.

— White Sox have lost 18 games in a row.
— Chicago is 10-45 on road.
— over 7-2 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 22-112
— record in first 5 innings: 43-54-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-x-4.1

— Ober is 3-1, 2.67 in his last four starts.
— Twins are 6-2 in his last eight starts.
— under 8-3 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 8-20
— record in first 5 innings: 11-8-1
— He is 1-1, 5.25 in two starts vs Chicago TY.

— Twins are 6-5 in their last 11 games.
— Twins are 30-21 at home.
— over 9-3 last 12 games.
— scored run in first inning: 30-108
— record in first 5 innings: 48-47-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-2.2

Tampa Bay (55-54) @ Houston (57-52)
— Littell is 1-1, 3.37 in his last three starts.
— Rays are 5-5 in his road starts.
— over 6-3 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 7-21
— record in first 5 innings: 7-8-6
— He gave up 2 runs in 5 IP, in his one start vs Houston

— Tampa Bay is 11-8 in its last 19 games.
— Rays are 25-25 on road.
— over 5-2 last seven road games.
— scored run in first inning: 28-109
— record in first 5 innings: 39-53-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-x-2.2

— Blanco is 0-2, 5.63 in his last three starts.
— Astros are 14-6 in his starts.
— over 4-2 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 7-20
— record in first 5 innings: 10-7-3
— This is his first start vs Tampa Bay.

— Houston lost three of last five games.
— Astros are 31-25 at home.
— under 6-3 last nine home games
— scored run in first inning: 33-109
— record in first 5 innings: 50-46-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-3.1

NY Mets (58-51) @ LA Angels (47-63)
— Peterson is 2-1, 3.94 in his last three starts.
— Mets are 8-2 in his starts.
— over 7-3
— allowed run in first inning: 0-10
— record in first 5 innings: 7-2-1
— He is 1-0, 1.86 in 2 games (1 start) vs Anaheim

— New York is 16-7 in its last 23 games.
— Mets are 28-22 on road.
— under 4-2 last six road games
— scored run in first inning: 27-109
— record in first 5 innings: 48-44-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-x-3

— Soriano is 2-0, 4.41 in his last three starts.
— Angels won his last three home starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 4-17
— record in first 5 innings: 8-8-1
— This is his first start against the Mets.

— Angels lost six of last eight games.
— They’re 24-35 at home.
— over 9-7 last 16 home games
— scored run in first inning: 24-110
— record in first 5 innings: 36-62-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-4-4

Los Angeles (63-47) @ Oakland (46-65)
— Flaherty is making his first start for the Dodgers.
— He was 6-1, 1.99 in his last 8 starts for Detroit.
— Tigers were 10-8 in his starts.
— under 5-3 last eight starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 9-5-4
— He is 0-2, 10.97 in two starts vs Oakland.

— Dodgers are 1-5 in last six games.
— Dodgers are 2-11 in last 13 road games.
— over 6-2 last eight games.
— scored run in first inning: 38-110
— record in first 5 innings: 54-45-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-x-4

— Spence is 2-0, 2.38 in his last two starts.
— A’s are 4-9 in his starts.
— over 7-2 last nine starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-13
— record in first 5 innings: 4-8-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Los Angeles.

— A’s are 16-9 in last 25 games.
— Oakland is 9-4 in last 13 home games.
— under 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 23-111
— record in first 5 innings: 42-64-5
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.1-x-3

Philadelphia (65-44) @ Seattle (58-53)
— Allard allowed 3 runs in 4 IP in his first ‘24 start.
— Phillies are 0-1 in his starts.
— under 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
— He is 1-4, 8.65 in six starts vs Seattle.

— Phillies are 4-12 in their last 16 games.
— They’re 27-23 on road.
— over 4-0 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 40-109
— record in first 5 innings: 64-34-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-x-6.1

— Miller is 2-0, 1.80 in his last four starts.
— Seattle is 7-4 in his last 11 starts.
— over 10-5 last 15
— allowed run in first inning: 3-21
— record in first 5 innings: 10-7-4
— He hasn’t pitched against the Phillies.

— Seattle won five of last seven games.
— Mariners are 32-23 at home.
— over 6-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 31-111
— record in first 5 innings: 51-44-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2.2-2

Umpires
— StL-Chi- Over is 10-6 in Wegner games.
— Az-Pitt- Under is 12-8 in Valentine games.
— Mil-Wsh- Underdogs are 10-11 in Beck games.
— SF-Cin- Home favorites are 8-3 in Whitson games.
— Mia-Atl- Jones is a rookie ump; no trends yet.
— Col-SD- Home favorites are 11-4 in Tomlinson games.

— KC-Det- Favorites are 10-7 in Barber games.
— Tor-NYY- Home favorites are 11-4 in Diaz games
— Balt-Clev- Over is 14-7 in Visconti games
— Bos-Tex- Under is 13-6 in Reyburn games.
— Chi-Minn- Road underdogs are 6-6 in Marquez games.
— TB-Hst- Under is 15-7 in Additon games.

— NYM-LAA- Under is 8-4 in Conroy games.
— LA-A’s- Under is 13-6 in Tosi games.
— Phil-Sea- Home team is 12-7 in Wills games.

The Atlanta Braves have posted a 25.9% strikeout rate over the last month, a 13.8% swinging strike rate, and a 29.5% chase rate.

This makes them a prime candidate to chase K props against, and Saturday is no different when Kyle Tyler takes the hill for Miami.

The 27-year-old has been Over 3.5 strikeouts in three of his five starts at the major league level this season, but with a modest 18.5% punch-out rate. But that does not concern me given the low bar we need to clear.

Atlanta has allowed each of the last 10 right-handed starting pitchers to eclipse 3.5 K against them and 14 of the last 15.

Long story short, Tyler may have below-average strikeout potential, but this line should probably be 4.5.

Trend: Zach Eflin is 17-5 (+11.01 units) in the last five seasons as a road pick ’em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-120 at CLE)

Trend: Over the total is 9-3-1 when PHI has been a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in PHI-SEA (o/u at 8)

(901) ST LOUIS (56-54) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (54-58)
Trend: STL more Under during the day (20-28 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(903) MILWAUKEE (62-47) at (904) WASHINGTON (49-61)
Trend: MIL not as good vs. NL East/West (13-20, -12.39 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-120 at WSH)

(905) ARIZONA (59-51) at (906) PITTSBURGH (55-54)
Trend: AZ slight Over at night (43-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(909) MIAMI (40-70) at (910) ATLANTA (60-49)
Trend: ATL leads the head-to-head season series 7-1 (including 5-0 at home)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-245 vs MIA)

(911) COLORADO (41-70) at (912) SAN DIEGO (59-52)
Trend: SD trending Over in divisional play (22-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(917) BOSTON (58-50) at (918) TEXAS (52-58)
Trend: TEX more Under at home (17-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(919) CHICAGO-AL (27-85) at (920) MINNESOTA (60-48)
Trend: CWS awful on the road (10-45, -29.85 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 at MIN)

(921) BALTIMORE (65-46) at (922) CLEVELAND (67-42)
Trend: Over the total is 5-1 when CLE has been a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(925) LOS ANGELES-NL (63-47) at (926) OAKLAND (46-65)
Trend: OAK slight Under at night (24-37 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(927) NEW YORK-NL (58-51) at (928) LOS ANGELES-AL (47-63)
Trend: LAA not as good at home (24-35, -9.08 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+105 vs NYM)

(929) PHILADELPHIA (65-44) at (930) SEATTLE (58-53)
Trend: Over the total is 9-3-1 when PHI has been a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)