1:35 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox (-145, 9.5)

This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Royals (52-44) won the opener 6-1, cruising as -110 road favorites. Then the Red Sox (52-42) bounced back with a 5-0 win yesterday, taking care of business as -125 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Royals hand the ball to righty Brady Singer (5-5, 2.93 ERA) and the Red Sox counter with fellow righty Brayan Bello (9-5, 5.40 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -125 home favorite and Kansas City a +115 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Red Sox laying short chalk at home, steaming Boston up from -125 to -145. The Red Sox are receiving 67% of moneyline bets, signaling public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Sunday home favorites playing teams who missed the postseason the previous year are 65-34 (66%) with an 8% ROI this season. Boston has the better bats, hitting .254 with 110 homers and 441 runs scored compared to Kansas City hitting .246 with 99 homers and 438 runs scored. The Red Sox have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win.

1:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays (-130, 7.5)

This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Rays (47-48) won the opener 2-0, cashing as -135 home favorites. Then the Guardians (58-36) clawed back with a 4-2 victory yesterday, cashing as -110 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Guardians send out righty Ben Lively (8-4, 3.59 ERA) and the Rays tap fellow righty Ryan Pepiot (5-5, 4.20 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -115 home favorite and Cleveland a +105 road dog. The public is scooping up the plus money with the Guardians, who have the far better won-loss record. However, despite 59% of moneyline bets backing Cleveland we’ve actually seen this line creep up further toward Tampa Bay -115 to -130. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rays, with pros fading the trendy dog Guardians and instead laying the short chalk with Tampa Bay at home. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 314-201 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the postseason the previous year are 65-34 (66%) with an 8% ROI. Tampa Bay also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team favored to win. Mark Carlson, the home plate ump, is 56% to the home team historically. Lively has a 7.15 ERA in two July starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 11.1 innings pitched. He has a 4.37 ERA on the road compared to 2.55 at home. Pepiot has a 2.79 ERA in two July starts, allowing 3 earned runs in 9.2 innings pitched.

Thank Mike