Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Odds
Moneyline: Alcaraz -150, Djokovic +120

Spread: Alcaraz -1.5 Games (-115), Djokovic +1.5 Games (-105)

Total: Over 40.5 Games (-120), Under 40.5 Games (-105)

I have no problem putting my hand up and admitting that I wish never advised bettors not to back Djokovic to win this event at +400 odds. At the very least, that would have set up some great hedging opportunities here. However, I gave that advice out before the draw was released and it absolutely blew up in my face. Djokovic got the clearest path to a final imaginable, with Holger Rune being the toughest opponent he faced to this point. And Rune didn’t show up to play in their fourth-round match. The 21-year-old was spraying errors all over the court, and he was doing so early in rallies. Rune never even tested Djokovic’s legs or overall fitness. Djokovic was also pretty fortunate that a red-hot Alex de Minaur was unable to compete in their quarter-final match. De Minaur is a good grass-court player and plays an insanely physical brand of tennis. The Australian would have been a great test for the seven-time Wimbledon champion.

Of course, Djokovic does deserve some credit for not giving Rune much of anything, and the Serbian also played a fantastic semi-final match against Lorenzo Musetti. He has dialed his serve back in, hitting his spots in big situations. He’s also doing a better job than expected of extending rallies. Realistically, the knee doesn’t even look like a problem. The real issue is that Djokovic still hasn’t faced elite competition, and it’s hard to shake what we saw from the Serbian early in the 2024 season. It’s only July and Djokovic has already lost more matches this season than he did in any season from 2020 to 2023. And we saw some shocking losses from the 37-year-old, including a loss to Luca Nardi at Indian Wells, a straight-set beatdown at the hands of Alejandro Tabilo in Rome and a three-set loss to Tomas Machac in Geneva. All of that makes it hard to believe he’ll beat a player of Alcaraz’s caliber — especially in a best-of-five match.

I have been pretty critical of Alcaraz’s play this season, but he has proven that his B- game is good enough to win on the biggest stages. He played a lousy tournament at Roland Garros and still got through Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev in the final two matches. Things haven’t been all that different in London. Alcaraz’s serve has been all over the place and the 21-year-old has been tossing away sets like it’s nothing. But one thing that Alcaraz has been able to do is lock it down when he feels he’s in trouble. The Spaniard can be guilty of going for big shots in weird situations, and his flashiness is sometimes his biggest weakness. But he tends to cut those mistakes out when his back is against the wall. And Alcaraz is going to play like his back is against the wall right from the jump here. He knows that the greatest player in tennis history is on the other side of the net and has beaten him twice in a row.

Look for Alcaraz to throw absolutely everything at Djokovic in this one. The Spaniard is going to go to the serve-and-volley game regularly when it’s his turn to serve, and that’s something that has worked in this specific matchup in the past. Alcaraz takes a bit off the serve and focuses on getting it way out wide to get Djokovic off the court. Then he rushes the net and calmly puts the point away. And when these two are involved in baseline exchanges, look for Alcaraz to target what has been a shaky Djokovic forehand. Alcaraz will also mix in the drop shot rather frequently here. Musetti tried to test Djokovic’s knee with some droppers, but the Italian just doesn’t have that in his bag. Alcaraz has one of the best drop shots on the planet, and he disguises it well.

Alcaraz is also just built differently than most, both physically and mentally. He has the endurance required to throw the kitchen sink at Djokovic and still have his legs in the fourth and fifth sets. That’s not usually the case for Djokovic. He usually has his opponents gasping for air by the end of his matches. Alcaraz also believes that he is on Djokovic’s level, at the very least. Players like Musetti have the talent to hang with Djokovic for a little, but they don’t trust their guns in the biggest moments. That’s why you see Djokovic breaking late in sets or winning tiebreakers. That is not an issue with Alcaraz. He has beaten Djokovic before and he knows he’ll do it again.

Overall, I think we’ll see another major out of Djokovic when all is said and done. But I’d still be surprised if he wins his 25th Grand Slam title this soon after surgery, and that’s especially true considering he’s getting Alcaraz in the final. If this was Daniil Medvedev or Sinner, who isn’t there physically right now, I probably would have played Djokovic.

Bet: Alcaraz ML (-150 – 2 units)

Updated odds to win Wimbledon at BetMGM

Carlos Alcaraz -160

Novak Djokovic +135