8:05 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Texas Rangers (-120, 9)

The Guardians (26-16) took Monday night’s series opener 7-0, taking care of business as -115 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Guardians start righty Ben Lively (1-2, 2.63 ERA) and the Rangers (22-21) counter with fellow righty Jack Leiter (0-0, 12.91 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed at -110 odds. The public takes one look at each team’s won-loss record, as well as Leiter’s sky-high ERA, and is rushing to the window to back the Guardians at a pick’em price. However, despite 65% of bets taking Cleveland, we’ve actually seen this line move further to Texas -110 to -120. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rangers, with pros fading the trendy dog and instead backing the unpopular home favorite. Favorites off a loss who have a winning record are 81-41 (66%) with a 12% ROI this season. Texas has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. The Rangers have the better bats, hitting .253 vs .236 for the Guardians. Texas is hitting .273 over their last ten games compared to Cleveland hitting just .204.

9:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners (-160, 7)

The Mariners (23-19) won last night’s series opener 6-2, cruising as -150 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Royals (25-18) send out righty Michael Wacha (2-4, 5.15 ERA) and the Mariners tap fellow righty Logan Gilbert (3-1, 2.94 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -150 home favorite and Kansas City a +135 road dog. Wiseguys have gotten down on the Mariners to post another victory at home, steaming Seattle up from -150 to -160. The Mariners are receiving roughly 70% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling public and sharp support as well as a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Seattle has value as a non-division favorite and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to benefit the better team who is expected to win. Seattle is 14-9 at home this season, the 8th best home record in MLB. Gilbert has a 1.80 ERA at home over three starts. The Mariners also have the better bullpen, sporting an ERA of 3.29 compared to 3.92 for the Royals. Seattle’s bullpen is better rested as well. Last night George Kirby went 7 innings for the Mariners while Brady Singer lasted only 5 innings for the Royals.