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msudogs
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Brighton and Hove Albion will look for back-to-back league wins for the first time since September when they host an Everton side desperate to snap its winless run on Saturday.
Brighton hardly had to get out of second gear to cruise to a 5-0 victory at Sheffield United last Sunday in a game made far easier for the visitors by an early red card to the hosts. And while they haven’t been as consistent since beginning group play in the UEFA Europa League, they’ve still only lost just once in 12 home league fixtures.
Meanwhile, Everton have only one win in their last 12 fixtures in all competitions and are winless in eight in the league. But they’ve drawn as many league games as they’ve lost in that stretch, which means they still enter the weekend above the relegation places on account of their superior goal difference to Luton Town.
The teams settled for a 1-1 draw in their previous league meeting on Merseyside in early November, with Everton denied all three points by a late Ashley Young own goal.
Brighton certainly missed Ivory Coast international Simon Adingra as he was helping his nation lift the African Cup of Nations, but they may benefit from the confidence he built performing on one of the highest international stages.
Adingra assisted both goals in Ivory Coast’s 2-1 victory over Nigeria in the final and was named man of the match for his efforts. Then he returned to the Seagulls and scored their last two goals in last weekend’s win over the Blades, including a classily taken one-time finish that stretched their lead to 4-0.
And while it’s unreasonable to expect the 22-year-old to be as active in most games as he was against 10-man Sheffield United, it would be a good time to make a major step forward in terms of consistent goal scoring production. Seagulls leading goal scorer Joao Pedro remains shelved, and Irish teenager Evan Ferguson hasn’t found the net since the end of November.
Karo Mitoma also returned from international duty on the opposite flank, and while he didn’t directly contribute to a goal, he was involved in the match’s critical moment — on the receiving end of Mason Holgate’s red card challenge.
Unsurprisingly, Brighton had 79% possession in part as a result of going up a man. It was their first game out of six where they’ve had more than 70% and won. Four of the other five finished as draws, including their previous draw at Everton.
Everton’s winter slump has more or less mirrored the injury trajectory of Abdoulaye Doucoure, who still leads the team with six league goals despite missing most of the last two months.
Doucoure left injured at halftime of the Toffees’ last league win — 2-0 at Burnley — and has played only twice since, in home league draws to Aston Villa and Monday against Palace. All signs suggest he should feature again in Sean Dyche’s preferred second striker role, and when he’s been in the team the Toffees have lost only one of their last 11 in their all competitions.
Everton have scored the third-fewest PL goals (27) and are tied for the fourth-fewest conceded (33), but only the latter number meshes closely with the team’s expected goals data. The xG numbers say Dyche’s squad should be closer to 37 goals, and striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the biggest culprit, scoring only three times in the league against 9.0 xG.
Yet Calvert-Lewin will probably retain his spot at the top of his team’s formation, since Beto, his main rival for minutes, hasn’t proven prolific as a scorer or equal to Calvert-Lewin in other parts of modern striker play.
The Toffees probably deserved all three points in their most recent 1-1 affair, going behind on Jordan Ayew’s long-range thunderbolt but eventually manufacturing a set-piece equalizer through Amadou Onana after several near misses earlier in the second half.
Everton's expected goal difference away from home suggests their strong away form (5-5-2, W-L-D) is in line for a regression. But maybe not when you look at the game by game numbers.
Of the Toffees' 12 away league matches, Everton created equal to or more xG than their opponents in eight of them. It speaks to the fact Dyche's squad is better set up to perform as counterpunchers. And while Dacoure's return didn't immediately result in victory, it was probably reasonable to expect a bit of rust that won't carry over to his second game back.
As for Brighton, the returns of Adingra and Mitoma are significant, but the latter may have picked up a back issue in his last appearance and the cohort of missing players led by Joao Pedro is certainly more significant than Everton's.
Also, the match is probably likely to take a shape the Seagulls have struggled with at times, with Everton plenty content to allow the hosts most of the ball. Brighton have won none of their four home matches in which they held more than 70% possession, a dynamic that could surface regardless of how the game plays out and almost certainly if Everton can find an early goal.
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02-24-24 12:26 AM |
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msudogs
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Man United look to make it six straight wins when they host Fulham at Old Trafford.
Thing are seemingly headed in the right direction for Manchester United as they mount a charge towards the top four. However, it's come by some pretty fortunate luck, as they've been out played in two of their last four wins and have some pretty mediocre underlying numbers for the season.
Fulham are treading water in the bottom half of the table as they have only one win in their last seven matches in all competitions. Their form away from home has been dreadful, but given they way they performed against Manchester United in the previous match, they definitely are live to pull off an upset.
Manchester United may have gone through a four match win streak, but they still are not even close to a team that can compete for the top four. They have won seven Premier League matches this season where they have lost the individual xG battle in the match. One of those was a 1-0 win at Craven Cottage over Fulham where they got outshot 18 to 12 and got bailed out by a late Bruno Fernandes goal. In that match, Manchester United did not register a shot with an xG rating above 0.10.
Erik Ten Hag has conceded the fact that his team is not going to be able to control matches anymore, so he’s trying to press high with his attackers in hopes of getting a turnover and if they don’t get it, their midfield and back line are incredibly exposed. Luton Town took a whopping 22 shots against Manchester United on Sunday after Manchester United had already gone up 2-0 inside the first 10 minutes.
The injuries across the back line are starting to mount for Manchester United. Lisandro Martinez is already out for an extended period of time and now Luke Shaw, who is arguably their most important player on their back line given his versatility, is now out for a while as well. The Kobiee Mainoo and Casemiro midfield combined doesn't have enough ball winning for Manchester United to be pressing with only their front line. Then you combine that with the fact that they are basically playing a second-choice back line, you can see why teams have been able to exploit them in transition and why they are allowing 1.56 npxG per 90 minutes.
Fulham have terrible away underlying numbers, but to be fair to them they have played basically all of the good teams away from Craven Cottage already. Eight of their 12 away matches have come against teams in the top half of the table, so it’s no wonder they are struggling.
There are a couple of key aspects to Fulham that can give Manchester United issues here at Old Trafford. First off, when they decide to play direct, they have done a good job at evading an opponent's high press. Fulham are seventh in offensive PPDA this season and in the previous meeting with Manchester United they limited the Red Devils to just five high turnovers in the match. Manchester United are 12th in build up completion percentage allowed, which just goes to show how ineffective their high press has been at disrupting opponents that like to build out of the back.
Secondly, Fulham have gone back to their old ways of trying to create chances via crosses. To their credit, they have completed the most crosses of anyone in the Premier League into the penalty area. Also, Muniz has proven to be a pretty stable option up top for them because he is actually producing respectable shot production numbers compared to Raul Jimenez. In a little over six 90s, Muniz is averaging 3.8 shots per 90 minutes, while Jimenez is at 2.6.
Negative regression is going to hit Manchester United – it's only a matter of time. They cannot continue winning matches being this flawed out of possession and giving up 20+ shots to teams in the relegation fight.
The fact that they are disrupting build up play should tell you all you need to know about how bad their pressing truly is. Fulham are a top half team in the Premier League at playing through pressure and they did it very effectively in the previous meeting. This time around the Cottagers will also have a better striker up top.
Given how crazily Manchester United has been over-performing lately, I really don’t see why they should be laying a full goal at home when they’ve only won two Premier League matches this year by multiple goals.
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02-24-24 01:38 PM |
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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Manchester United are the current form team in the English Premier League. Unbeaten in 2024, five wins on the spin in all competitions
Opponents Fulham are one of those sides in the middle of the table that don’t have anything to play for. No chance of bridging the gap to the European qualification places and no real danger of getting sucked into a relegation battle.
The Red Devils still have it all to play for now. They are firmly back in the race for the top four but still think they have a lot to prove. Erik ten Hag seems to always be under pressure and a couple of bad results away from being the favorite to be the next manager sacked.
One thing he certainly has done, though, is to get his team to play with a consistent style. Recently, we have seen a carefree attitude taken into the games. Watching them play is akin to taking in a basketball match—all-out attack and vulnerable at the back.
All of which means there should be goals a plenty in this fixture. If there are goals, you have got to fancy the hottest striker in the Premier League right now to get at least one.
Rasmus Højlund took his time to get going in the English topflight, not scoring until his 15th appearance. But now, the confidence is flowing. He has been on the scoresheet in each of his last six league games. The youngest-ever player to do so in the competition’s history.
I like what I am seeing from him. As is the case with all good strikers, when they are in good form, the ball is attracted to them, and they get a slice of luck now and again. As was the case when he scored his second goal last weekend via a deflection off his chest.
United have scored 19 goals across the seven games played in 2024, which shows how many chances they have been creating. This run also reminds me of last season when they put together a long string of wins that coincided with Marcus Rashford scoring in almost every game he played. It’s happening again, but this time it is Højlund.
Fulham are there for the taking with just one win in their last eight and only rock-bottom Sheffield United have a worse road record than the Cottagers. All reflected by the home side being priced at -205 to get the win, and with a goal line of 3.0, the odds compilers are expecting United to score at least twice.
That’s why I see the value in backing Højlund to score here at +105. That’s a little disrespectful compared to the prices of strikers with a similar profile this weekend.
Ollie Watkins is -105 against Nottingham Forest. An out-of-sorts Erling Haaland is -225 to score at home to Bournemouth, something he has only done once in three attempts despite his team scoring 14 goals in those games. Finally, Bukayo Saka is +100 in a tough fixture against Newcastle.
I expect Manchester United to score two or three goals here, and I think Højlund will be the main man. The Old Trafford faithful, who have taken to him very well, will be roaring him on, willing him to score
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02-24-24 01:40 PM |
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msudogs
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Posts: 65535
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Aston Villa will try to halt a three-match losing run at home on Saturday when they host a Nottingham Forest squad that has only two away league wins this season.
Villa began the season as the league’s best home side, winning their first seven league fixtures at Villa Park while failing to take nearly as many points on their travels. But both their home and away form have reversed of late as manager Unai Emery’s squad have dropped home fixtures to Newcastle, Chelsea and Arsenal in quick succession, while going unbeaten in their past five as visitors.
Forest is coming off a crucial 2-0 home victory over 10-man West Ham last Saturday that took the Trees to four points clear of the relegation places. In the wider view, their improvement has been definite — if incremental — since the managerial change, taking 10 points from eight games.
After a relatively quiet stretch through the holiday period, Ollie Watkins has recently discovered a good run of winter form.
He provided a brace in last weekend’s 2-1 win at Fulham, an effort that was his third multi-goal appearance of the season after earlier hat tricks against Hibernian in the UEFA Europa League and Brighton in league play.
And he’s been on the end of at least 0.6 xG in total chances in four consecutive league games, which amounts to his most consistent stretch of the campaign.
Theoretically, that could help Villa string some results together similar to how they did to briefly move atop the table this fall.
But the rest of Emery’s squad has gone into a collective slump, scoring only five goals in which their striker was not directly involved over their past eight matches. Two of those came in the 5-0 rout of last-place Sheffield United, and another came against second-division Middlesbrough.
The Fulham victory was also Villa's first game since losing Boubacar Traore for the season to a torn ACL. In five matches without the defensive midfielder, Villa has yet to keep a clean sheet.
Meanwhile, Forest is also enjoying the return of a key attacker in Nigerian striker Taiwo Awoniyi, whose presence continues to dramatically influence his team’s results for the better.
However, it’s unclear if he’ll be available Saturday after he departed the win over West Ham in the 67th minute after having scored the opener in first-half stoppage time.
The form sheet shows how much of a difference that could make. The Trees have picked up 1.33 points per game across 27 Premier League matches since the start of the 2022-2023 season when he starts. That rate falls to 0.72 ppg when he’s either a substitute or an injured scratch.
With Chris Wood also injured, Divock Origi is likely to start if Awoniyi can't go from the opening whistle. That wouldn't be a reassuring sight for Forest supporters as Origi hasn't scored in the league and has only managed four shots in 11 appearances (two starts).
On the opposite end of the pitch, Nuno Espirito Santo could welcome the return of Ivorians Willy Boly, Serge Aurier and Ibrahim Sangare after their African Cup of Nations triumph. Those reinforcements could help boost a defense that hadn't kept a clean sheet against top-flight opposition under their new manager until last Saturday’s win.
The trip to Villa Park will provide the opportunity to pick up a fifth away point — or possibly more — in Espirito Santo’s fourth league away match in charge. That would match or exceed Forest’s total haul on their travels under previous manager Steve Cooper.
It's really hard — and probably inadvisable — to play a side without knowing Awoniyi's status.
Regardless, Forest has been more goal-dangerous since Espirito Santo's takeover. Meanwhile, Villa have struggled to keep clean sheets regardless of whether they are steamrolling opponents or losing.
The best play is a yes wager on both teams to score at -145 odds and an implied 59.2% probability. It's cashed in nine of Villa's 12 home matches, and in all four away league games that Espirito Santo has managed this season.
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02-24-24 02:32 PM |
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msudogs
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The Oliver Glasner managerial era begins at Selhurst Park on Saturday when Crystal Palace hosts a Burnley club that appears content to let Vincent Kompany lead the battle against relegation until the end.
Glasner assumes the reigns following the resignation of the much-esteemed English football veteran Roy Hodgson, who stepped down amid a health scare and following a run of two victories in 15 games played in all competitions. Glasner was appointed in time to watch Palace’s 1-1 draw at Everton on Monday, although it was interim boss Ray Lewington in charge that night.
Kompany’s Burnley were thumped 5-0 at home against an in-form Arsenal side on Saturday. But while they appear unlikely to make up the gap needed to avoid relegation, they have fared slightly better this season as the visitor, with two of their three league wins coming away from home.
Palace defeated Burnley 2-0 at Turf Moor back in November in a match that transpired more evenly than the result suggested.
While Glasner had not technically taken the reins at Goodison Park on Monday, McCarthy sent out the side in a 3-4-3 (or 3-4-2-1) that is the new Austrian boss’s preferred shape.
The results were mixed. On one hand, the Eagles snapped a three-match away losing run and held an opponent to only one goal for the first time in five matches. On the other, they were fortunate to escape with a point on the strength of an individually brilliant goal from Jordan Ayew and some wasteful Everton finishing.
The Eagles have not won a match without Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise attacking on their flanks since their previous victory over Burnley, and the pair are still out with thigh injuries. Despite making only 11 league appearances, Olise’s six goals are tied for the team lead.
And yet Palace’s struggles have not necessarily been going forward. The Eagles have scored in 14 of their last 16 league games. But they’ve conceded in 15 of those 16 after having preserved four clean sheets in their first nine opportunities.
Burnley’s big winter signing David Fofana got off to a dream start when he came off the bench to score twice and help the Clarets rally to a 2-2 draw against Fulham.
But the Ivorian acquisition from Union Berlin continues to struggle to impact the games that he starts. All but one of his goal involvements for either of his teams has come when used as a substitute. And he’s averaging around 0.9 xG per 90 minutes across his appearances as a sub, against only 0.3 xG per 90 as a starter.
Still, Fofana is likely to continue to start because no one else is scoring at a high enough rate to consider saving any goal production on the bench. Zeki Amdouni and Lyle Foster lead the Clarets with four goals each, and they’re averaging just 0.21 and 0.31 goals per 90 minutes, respectively.
Further, the Clarets are often involved in games that are too far gone before a late substitute could change them. Their 26 first-half goals conceded are tied with Sheffield United for the highest total in the league and six more than the next-closest side, Nottingham Forest.
The uncertainty surrounding what Glasner's version of Palace will look like — and whether he will receive a "new coach bump" — makes this a very difficult game to handicap.
But if you're just judging by performances to date, neither team has been particularly benefitted by playing in front of their home supporters.
Burnley have picked up three more points away from home than at Turf Moor, and while their xG data might suggest those results haven't been warranted, it's also inflated in a negative direction by a couple of blowout defeats.
The total has also come in under 3.5 goals in every away game in which Burnley has taken a point — and they've done so in half of their six away matches against lower-half sides. Similarly, Palace has dropped points in four of its seven home games against bottom-half oppositions, and three of those games saw fewer than 3.5 goals scored.
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02-24-24 02:54 PM |
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msudogs
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“Everything that could go wrong, did go wrong today” said Thomas Tuchel after seeing his side beaten 3-2 by Bochum last weekend. It was FC Hollywood’s third successive loss – their worst losing streak for nine years and, just days later, unsurprisingly the club announced they would be parting company with Tuchel’s services in the summer.
Leon Goretzka labelled it “a horror movie that won’t end”. Manuel Neuer was perhaps more damning: “We can’t allow ourselves to fall apart like we did and concede three goals in Bochum. That is not FC Bayern.” Only it is, and has been, for large portions of the campaign.
Appearing directionless, rudderless and hugely vulnerable at times, retaining the Bundesliga looks an unrealistic proposition right now, with their next challenge potentially pouring even more cold water over their expectations of clinching a 12th successive Meisterschale.
RB Leipzig have rarely been straightforward opposition for Bayern in recent years, and this weekend’s encounter has become even more problematic considering the injuries and suspensions incurred.
Tuchel’s team may be without any available right-backs, whilst gung-ho Raphael Guerreiro is the only confirmed left-back fit enough to feature from the off.
Noussair Mazraoui, Konrad Laimer, Bouna Sarr, Sacha Boey and Dayot Upamecano are all absent for Saturday’s showpiece, with Alphonso Davies remaining doubtful.
The Bavarians may need to field Eric Dier as a makeshift right-back or revert to a back-three which worked dreadfully in their dismal and damaging recent defeat against Bayer Leverkusen.
Considering RB Leipzig have already scored at least twice in all six of their fixtures against top-four rivals Bayern, Leverkusen, Dortmund and Stuttgart this season – and arrive with close to a best XI available (featuring Xavi Simons, Dani Olmo, Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda) – the visitors should expect to trouble that makeshift FCB rearguard.
With that in-mind, I’m more than happy to back RB Leipzig +1 on the Asian Handicap
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02-24-24 03:34 PM |
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Manchester City head on the road for a tough test to take on a resurgent Bournemouth side at the Vitality Stadium.
Bournemouth started the season in dreadful form and were looking at potentially getting relegated, but they have been one of the best teams in the Premier League since losing 6-1 to Manchester City at the Etihad. Andoni Iraola's tactics are really starting to take shape and has a great opportunity here to pull off a big upset.
Manchester City are starting to find the form that won them the Premier League title last year. Their last loss came on December 6th against Aston Villa and since have gone 14 matches unbeaten. With that being said, this is a really tough test and much different Bournemouth than they faced on November 4th, so Manchester City better bring their A-game.
If there is ever a team that could give Manchester City some problems in transition, Bournemouth are that team.
Brentford had two or three golden breakaways against Manchester City in the first half on Tuesday, but they couldn’t capitalize. Bournemouth have been incredibly clinical in transition and their turnaround started after their 6-1 loss to Manchester City. In that match, the final xG was 1.9 to 0.9. Manchester City took 21 shots for the match and were facing a backup goalkeeper for Bournemouth and took advantage. In fact, they didn’t even create single big scoring chance on those 21 shots.
Since those two met on November 4th, Bournemouth have a +0.87 npxGD per 90 minutes, while Manchester City are at +1.05, so there really hasn’t been that big of a gap between these two teams.
Iraola’s hybrid press has been thriving lately. Since November 11th, Bournemouth have the third-best PPDA in the Premier League at 8.7 and lead the league in goals scored off of high turnovers with seven.
Dominic Solanke has benefited from Iraola’s system because he's a fantastic striker at finding space off the opponent's back line. Solanke is second in the Premier League in non-penalty goals (12) this season and will be a threat in transition against Manchester City.
This year Manchester City are worse than they were last season, especially out of possession. We’ve seen them get exploited in transition time and time again because their press is not as effective as it once was. Their PPDA has risen from 11.2 to 12.3 and their opponent build up completion percentage allowed has gone from 78.5% to 80.5%. I know that doesn’t sound like a big jump, but it’s a pretty clear sign that Manchester City’s press effectiveness is declining. Because of that, teams have been able to play a lot more long balls up the pitch at a pretty successful rate.
Manchester City are allowing a long ball completion percentage of 52.7%, which is around the Premier League average when their two title challengers Arsenal and Liverpool are only allowing around a 45% completion rate on long balls. So, since Manchester City’s high press isn’t as effective, teams have had more time and space to pick out those long passes and complete them at a high percentage.
Because their press hasn’t been as effective, their defensive numbers have dropped a bit, going from allowing 0.76 npxG per 90 minutes last year to 0.88 this season.
Manchester City are averaging 2.00 expected goals per 90 minutes and Erling Haaland is putting up similar expected goals numbers as he did last year, but there is an aspect of Manchester City that is lacking, they really miss İlkay Gündoğan. His late runs into the box to score goals was what helped City on their 14 match win streak last year. Rodri has filled in this role nicely, but if Rodri is coming and crashing the box, it leaves Manchester City without their best ball stopping midfielder when teams break in transition, which is something Bournemouth can exploit.
You are going to hear a lot of pundits tell you that Manchester City are going to walk to the title. I have news for you, it's not going to be as easy as it was last season. Brentford could have very easily gone up 1-0 against them in the first half on Tuesday if they were more clinical with their breakaway opportunities.
Bournemouth are a much better team in transition. Not only do they have more pace, but they have one of the most in form strikers in the Premier League in Dominic Solanke. Manchester City's inability to not only press, but defend in transition at the level they were last year is hurting them and it's the reason why they only have one win against the rest of the big six.
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02-24-24 05:32 PM |
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Bournemouth vs. Manchester City
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
The games are coming thick and fast at this time of the year—League games, domestic cup games and Europe—clubs are playing two or three times a week. That’s when the big teams, with the biggest, deepest squads come to the fore. They don’t come much deeper, stronger or better than Manchester City, a strong candidate for an EPL best bet.
The last two games have seen Pep Guardiola’s men draw 1-1 with Chelsea and beat Brentford 1-0. On the face of it, two very close encounters.
I have said in the past I am not a massive lover of xG (expected goals), but it does show you chances created, and in those games, City racked up 2.46 and 2.81. They don’t usually waste those sorts of opportunities. If they keep playing as they are, when it clicks, there is a big win coming.
Erling Haaland had nine shots against Chelsea and missed some massive chances. You could see he was fuming, and the Blues were lucky. It is certain he will take that out on one of his upcoming opponents.
Bournemouth could be lambs to the slaughter this weekend with City turning on a show. Also, with the top of the table looking tighter than ever, we must consider the title could go right down to the wire, in which case goal difference could be crucial.
Man City need to get their swagger back and start scoring goals. No better opportunity than against a side that are yet to beat them in 20 attempts, with City winning 18 of those meetings.
This fixture has a recent history of goals galore, with the reverse ending 6-1 to the home side at the Etihad. Last season saw the Champions win 4-0 at home and then 4-1 here, so an aggregate score of 14-2 over those three games.
The timing seems right for Pep’s men, who are unbeaten in their last 14 games across all competitions, winning 12 of them. They have covered a -1.5 handicap in seven of their last 10 wins, and that is the best I am taking here.
That means we need City to beat a Bournemouth side with no win in four by two or more goals. The Cherries have points on the board and will pick up the wins over the rest of the campaign to be safe. They also may pay more attention to the upcoming FA Cup tie against lower league Leicester City three days after this clash.
Andoni Iraola’s side only know one way to play—a front-foot attacking style that gets found out by elite opponents. As was the case when the other two title contenders, Arsenal and Liverpool, visited, with both running out 4-0 winners.
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02-24-24 05:34 PM |
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msudogs
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Posts: 65535
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Arsenal look to keep pace in the Premier League title race when they host Newcastle.
They were beaten by Porto in the Champions League on Wednesday, but their form in the Premier League has been outstanding and has put them back in the title race. The Gunners have won five straight matches and have a pretty favorable schedule coming up, so three points here would continue to put the pressure on Liverpool and Manchester City.
Newcastle have somewhat turned things around after a dreadful run of form in December and January. The Magpies are unbeaten in their last four Premier League matches and need to keep things going if they are going to qualify for European spot.
Arsenal had their worst showing of the season in Porto on Wednesday night, losing 1-0, but more importantly only being able to create 0.09 xG from open play. While that is pretty alarming, the context of the match really does matter. There were a total of 36 fouls and the ball was only in play for 50 of the 90 minutes, so all credit to Porto for mucking up the match and talking Arsenal completely out of rhythm.
That is not going to happen here because Newcastle are not even close to good enough out of possession to repeat what Porto did. Arsenal have been one of the best build up teams in the world for a while now and it comes down to Mikel Arteta's diverse tactics that makes Arsenal a very difficult team to prepare for.
The last few matches they have been playing Trossard as a false nine, but the reality is that the entire Arsenal attacking structure is fluid. Oftentimes Odegaard, Havertz or Trossard will drop deep in build up, which allows Arsenal to have numerical superiority as they move the ball through the first and second phases if teams do not choose to go man to man. If opposing defenses go man to man, Trossard and Odegaard will pull center backs or defensive midfielders out of position, which allows space for Martinelli and Saka to make runs at or in behind the opposing back line.
The basic principle of dropping Trossard and Odegaard deep in build up is Arsenal is then playing a 4-2-2-2 in possession, which allows them to overload the center of the pitch and play right through teams having a 3 v 2 superiority in build up all over the pitch. Having a 3 v 2 superiority against a team like Newcastle is a massive advantage for Arsenal.
Here is the problem that exists for Newcastle in this match. They do not have a structure out of possession that can give Arsenal problems. They frustrated Arsenal in the first meeting at St. James Park because they had most of their key personnel available, most importantly Joelinton who is their best pressing midfielder and covers the most ground in the midfield when Newcastle decide to press out of their 4-3-3 structure.
With the 4-3-3 press not working, Eddie Howe switched Newcastle to a 4-5-1 mid block, which wasn't working as good build up teams were able to exploit them in the space in between the defensive lines. So, Howe went back to his patented 4-3-3 press against Aston Villa, but with a different twist.
Newcastle are now pushing their back line up high and going man to man marking the opposing attacking players, which is incredibly aggressive and dangerous because of the personnel they have across their backline.
Newcastle’s back line is slow by Premier League standards and since they switched to this new pressing structure. Luton Town, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth have utilized pace to get in behind their back line and create chances, so what do you think Arsenal are going to do?
The Newcastle defense has been in shambles for a long time now, as they can't find an out of possession structure that works for the personnel they have available. They’ve conceded the second-most expected goals in the Premier League since the start of November and in their past eight matches, they’ve conceded 20 big scoring chances, so it seems Howe has decided to just go for it and make matches incredibly high event.
This is a perfect get right spot for Arsenal against a Newcastle defense that is completely lost and won't have a structure that can slow Arsenal down. Eddie Howe will have to either be incredibly aggressive and try to disrupt Arsenal's build up or sit in their 4-5-1 that has yielded 7.0 expected goals to Liverpool and 3.0 expected goals to Manchester City.
Although Arsenal struggled against Porto on Wednesday, that was against a good defensive low block, which Newcastle don't have. Since Arsenal started playing Havertz or Trossard as a false nine they have scored 14 goals in three Premier League matches and I am expecting them to have another good offensive showing here at home.
Arsenal have been incredible at the Emirates this year, putting up a +19.2 expected goal differential in 12 matches, while Newcastle have a -7.8 expected goal differential away from St. James Park.
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02-24-24 05:36 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Wolves will look for their first back-to-back league wins of 2024 on Sunday when they host a Sheffield United side that appears to be running ideas in their quest for Premier League survival.
Wolves have been among the best giant killers amid the mid-table PL clubs this season, most recently felling Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 in London to complete a season sweep. But they’ve also lost back-to-back home matches — perhaps an inevitable regression after they went eight unbeaten in the league at The Molineaux from the end of September to the end of December.
Sheffield United may be happy to be the visitors on Sunday given how poorly their last two home matches have turned out. They lost both by the same 5-0 score, though in fairness the more recent defeat to Brighton last weekend was transformed by an early red card to winter Blades loan signing Mason Holgate.
The Blades won these sides'jor previous meeting 2-1 at Bramall Lane, one of only three league wins this season.
11th-place Wolves have reached their relatively lofty position in the table — relative to recent seasons anyway — by overachieving both their expected goals for and against, though not by a super exorbitant margin in either category.
It suggests a team under Gary O'Neil that excels at making the key plays in both boxes. And perhaps the decisive moments in last weekend's victory over Tottenham Hotspur were an example of that, in a game decided by the unlikely brace from Joao Gomes, who only had one previous goal in any top-flight competition.
The 23-year-old's first was a simple but strong header from a set piece. But his second to earn all three points was an example of making the right plays in both boxes in quick succession to start and then finish a counterattack.
Gomes did very well to evade pressure from a Spurs attack and play the outlet ball that began the counter. And Pedro Neto chose the exact right pass from the right flank, dragging a cross back toward the penalty area to meet Gomes' late run.
The win was Wolves' third over a top-five opponent this season and fifth over a big-six foe if you include an inconsistent Chelsea in that latter designation. And it extended their away unbeaten run to four matches after earlier struggles on their travels.
If there's any criticism of O'Neil's squad, it's that they haven't performed better against the bottom half of the table. You might expect more than a 4-4-2 league record (W-L-D) against those clubs when you've also posted a 6-6-3 mark against the 10 top-half sides. But a partial explanation is probably that seven of those 10 fixtures against the bottom half have come away from home.
The Blades should be lauded for making a couple of winter moves to try and fix their most pressing issues and mount a survival bid, but the football gods haven't been kind to those additions.
Villareal loanee Ben Brereton Diaz scored in his first and second PL starts, then had to miss the Blades' last two league outings with a hamstring injury. Everton loanee Holgate will be out for Sheffield United's next three matches serving the resulting suspension from his garish challenge on Brighton's Kaoru Mitoma.
Brereto Diaz is questionable to return Sunday, and given his productivity, if he's available it will be tempting for Chris Wilder not to immediately return him to the starting XI. But for as impotent in attack as the Blades had looked under previous boss Paul Heckingbottom, it's the defensive side of things that has plagued Wilder's short tenure, especially against the more polished sides
They've scored multiple goals on five occasions under Wilder, including four times when playing bottom-half opposition. All four of those games were within a goal of United taking a point, and they earned six total after playing to a +0.4 xG difference per 90 minutes in those four games. Without two own goals conceded to Luton in a 3-2 home defeat, it might've been nine points.
Cameron Archer still leads the side with four league goals, and scored in his most recent start, a 3-1 win at Luton two weekends ago. Archer was also an injury absence last week with a slight calf strain but appears to be probable for a return on Sunday.
Wilder's version of the Blades have proven themselves capable of giving as good as good as they get against bottom-half clubs.
Wolves are just barely in the bottom half on account of their inferior goal difference to Chelsea and will move above the Blues — who play their League Cup final on Saturday — with a point. But while they've punched above their weight at times, the results also show they are capable of being dragged back into the fray by those beneath them.
So as uncomfortable as it may feel, the play here is on Sheffield United in some form. The optimal move is probably to back them on a +1.5 goals handicap at -148 odds and an implied 59.7% probability. It's a wager that has yet to lose in Wilder's games managed against bottom-half teams, and has cashed in only two of Wolves' 12 fixtures so far against the teams beneath them.
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02-25-24 02:00 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Chelsea and Liverpool meet for the second time in less than a month in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley Stadium.
Chelsea has been in interesting form in the Premier League, coming off an upset at the hands of Wolves followed up by a draw against Manchester City at the Etihad. The Blues did have a pretty easy path to the final with their only two wins against Premier League teams coming against Brighton and Newcastle both at home.
Much like Chelsea, Liverpool's path to the Carabao Cup final has been pretty easy. It beat Leicester, Bournemouth, West Ham and Fulham to get here, which is not exactly a murderers' row. The Reds are in great form in the Premier, League coming off three straight wins, but are dealing with a lot of injuries heading into this final.
We have the benefit of these two very recently playing at Anfield, and Liverpool ripped Chelsea apart. One of the reasons why Chelsea has gotten results against top-tier teams like Manchester City, Arsenal and Tottenham is because it is much better when it is playing as a transition team. The problem when it faced Liverpool was it actually was holding a decent amount of possession, but every time Liverpool won the ball, it had numbers in transition against a Chelsea defense that has really struggled to defend on the break, ranking 18th in final third to box entry conversion rate.
Chelsea decided to play a high line against Liverpool, which didn’t really work because it didn’t press Liverpool effectively enough, forcing just one high turnover and having a PPDA of 16.5. Liverpool was constantly able to play long balls up to the front line and cause problems. Liverpool was consistently able to get five guys pushed up on Chelsea’s back four, which caused the Blues all sorts of problems.
Chelsea has switched its pressing structure a little bit. Conor Gallagher is now pressing from the front line, which is good because he is their best pressing midfielder. The problem though for Chelsea — and it happened against Liverpool — is too big of a gap in the midfield in build-up. Often what is happening is Moisés Caicedo is being isolated in the middle of the pitch, so when Chelsea does lose the ball, he is the only protection in front of the back line. Liverpool exploited that time and again on its way to creating 2.9 expected goals and taking 27 shots.
Liverpool destroyed Luton Town on Wednesday without Darwin Núñez or Mohamed Salah, but it is going to need both of them for this cup final. In the previous match against Chelsea, although he didn't score, Núñez was key to Liverpool's offense. Of the 27 shots from Liverpool in that match, Núñez had 11 of them. He also did an incredible job making runs off Chelsea's last line, which if Cody Gakpo is going to be starting up top, he's not going to be able to do that to Núñez's level.
Liverpool could also really use Salah back in the lineup. Diogo Jota and Dominik Szoboszlai are most likely going to miss this match, which means Liverpool will be forced to start Harvey Elliott at right wing. He doesn't nearly put up the production numbers that Salah does considering Salah was at his best form that we've ever seen in a Liverpool shirt before the injury. He is currently sitting with a +1.19 xG + xA per 90 minute rate, which is second best in the Premier League behind only Erling Haaland.
Jürgen Klopp is pushing the throttle all the way right now in terms of Liverpool tactically. Their counter pressing has been out of this world ever since they fully integrated Wataru Endō and Ryan Gravenberch to the squad. Since the beginning of November, Liverpool's PPDA is at 6.78, which is almost unheard of with the Premier League average being around 11. They forced two goals off high turnovers against Luton Town on Wednesday and forced 12 high turnovers against Chelsea in the previous meeting.
There are a couple weaknesses in this Liverpool defense, and one of them is clearly on set pieces. The Reds are 17th in xG per set piece allowed, while Chelsea is top seven in xG per set piece. Plus, their defense has run incredibly well all season, allowing 24 goals off 32.1 expected goals.
Naturally you would think since it's a cup final, it's going to be a cagey affair, but that has not been the case with any Chelsea-Liverpool matches in recent history.
Both meetings have had at least 2.8 expected goals created, and the meeting three weeks ago was incredibly back and forth, with both teams mainly trying to play in transition. That is the way Klopp wants it; he doesn't really want control of the match if it means Liverpool can play very direct. The bad news for Chelsea is that is actually when it is at its best offensively, so I have a feeling this match is going to get off the rails just like the previous meeting.
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02-25-24 02:28 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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West Ham will try to snap out of an eight-match winless run in all competitions when they host a resurgent Brentford side grinding through a brutal portion of the schedule in Monday's Premier League clash at the London Stadium.
The Hammers have yet to win in 2024, and bad went to worse last weekend when winter loan signing Kalvin Phillips was sent off for his second booking in the second half of a 2-0 loss at Nottingham Forest.
Brentford have lost four-of-six since the return of Ivan Toney from an eight-month suspension, but all four of those defeats have come against the current top five, including Tuesday's 1-0 home loss to Manchester City.
This will be only the sixth all-time Premier League meeting between these sides, with Brentford having won all five previous meetings.
Jarrod Bowen has 11 goals and James Ward-Prowse has six assists, but if there was any doubt over who was the most important player for David Moyes' West Ham squad, it has been answered by the ongoing absence of Lucas Paqueta.
The Brazilian playmaker departed with a calf injury late in the first half of a 2-0 victory at Arsenal in late December, then could play only 13 minutes in his attempted comeback in an FA Cup Third-Round tie against Bristol City.
Paqueta has been reported to have returned to training in the last week, but there's uncertainty over whether he could be available on Monday. If he's not, recent history suggests the Hammers will find life exceedingly difficult. They've only scored four times with Paqueta off the pitch since that initial injury against the Gunners, and two of those have come from the penalty spot.
Meanwhile, Phillips will miss the encounter as he serves a one-match suspension for his double booking, which could offer a badly needed reset for the Manchester City loanee who has made more negative contributions than positive ones for Moyes' men.
Amid all the bad news in the narrow picture, in the broader sense maybe there's some regression here to what the analytics would have projected. West Ham's -12.6 expected goal difference is near the bottom of the league, and with a -8 goal differential they're the only top-half team to have scored fewer than they have conceded.
It turns out eight months away could not prevent Ivan Toney from losing his scoring touch, but it hasn't been enough by itself for the Bees to earn results consistently again.
Then again, it's rare that a team plays four matches against top-five PL sides in a run of just six games, and that's exactly what Brentford have been staring at since Toney's return.
The English striker has scored four goals in his six games back, and yet it hasn't mattered in losses to Tottenham, Liverpool and twice to Manchester City. The second game played this past Tuesday was a rescheduled fixture from December, when the Cityzens were off in the Middle East winning the FIFA Club World Cup.
But there's also no denying that some long-term injuries to other key contributors are probably making it difficult on Thomas Frank's side, with or without Toney. Chief among them: defenders Ethan Pinnock and Rico Henry, and forward Bryan Mbuemo, who scored nine goals last season and has seven this year.
Even so, Brentford's three multiple-goal performances in their last six league games since Toney's return follow just one in the Bees' previous eight. And they've beaten both their foes outside the top five in that span, Nottingham Forest 3-2 and Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0.
One thing that stands out when looking at West Ham's recent run is that they've conceded to just about every opponent's best scoring threat over the stretch. In order: Ben Brereton Diaz, Dominic Solanke, Alejandro Garnacho, Bukayo Saka and Taiwo Awoniyi have all found the net against the Hammers in the last five games.
Despite all that, West Ham have still preserved their relatively strong home record — having been beaten only twice in the league — and Brentford for all its promising play is still unproven in its road form.
That doesn't mean the Bees can't win here, but it makes the price a lot less appealing than it might be otherwise.
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02-26-24 08:26 AM |
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