Saturday, 03/25/2023 (3) TAMPA BAY vs. (4) BOSTON
Favoring: BOSTON on the money line.
Play On - Home Favorites against the money line (BOSTON) - off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals, extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days
(65-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.4%, +43.8 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (3) TAMPA BAY vs. (4) BOSTON
Favoring: BOSTON on the money line.
Play On - Home teams against the money line (BOSTON) - off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals, extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days
(72-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.4%, +43.3 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (23) COLUMBUS vs. (24) MONTREAL
Favoring: COLUMBUS on the money line.
Play Against - Home teams against the money line (MONTREAL) - off a road blowout loss by 3 goals or more, in a game involving two bad teams (30% to 40%)
(22-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.6%, +21.5 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +2.4 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (23) COLUMBUS vs. (24) MONTREAL
Favoring: COLUMBUS on the money line.
Play Against - Home teams against the money line (MONTREAL) - off a road loss by 2 goals or more, in a game involving two bad teams (30% to 40%)
(22-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.6%, +21.5 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +2.4 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (29) ST LOUIS vs. (30) ANAHEIM
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Home teams against the total (ANAHEIM) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, slow starting team-outscored by opp by 0.2+ goals/game in first period - 2nd half of the season
(34-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.9%, +27.1 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1 +3.3 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (23) COLUMBUS vs. (24) MONTREAL
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team against the total (COLUMBUS) - slow starting team-outscored by opp by 0.2+ goals/game in first period - 2nd half of the season, after playing 3 straight games where 7 or more total goals were scored
(95-45 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +46.6 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (23-10 +12.4 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (1) DETROIT vs. (2) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Any team against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - slow starting team-outscored by opp by 0.2+ goals/game in first period - 2nd half of the season, after playing 3 straight games where 7 or more total goals were scored
(95-45 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +46.6 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (23-10 +12.4 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (21) TORONTO vs. (22) CAROLINA
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Road teams where the total is 6 or more (TORONTO) - off a road blowout win by 3 goals or more, good team, winning 60-70% or more of their games on the season in the 2nd half of the season
(59-24 since 1997.) (71.1%, +33 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (7-2 +4.9 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (9) SAN JOSE vs. (10) CALGARY
Favoring: CALGARY on the money line.
SAN JOSE is 0-16 (-17.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season.
The average score was SAN JOSE 2.4, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 7*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (9) SAN JOSE vs. (10) CALGARY
Favoring: CALGARY on the money line.
SAN JOSE is 5-27 (-27 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was SAN JOSE 3.1, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 6*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (9) SAN JOSE vs. (10) CALGARY
Favoring: SAN JOSE on the money line.
CALGARY is 4-9 (-20.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -200 or higher this season.
The average score was CALGARY 2.5, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 6*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (9) SAN JOSE vs. (10) CALGARY
Favoring: CALGARY on the money line.
SAN JOSE is 0-11 (-13.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was SAN JOSE 2.5, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 6*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (9) SAN JOSE vs. (10) CALGARY
Favoring: CALGARY on the money line.
SAN JOSE is 1-16 (-16.2 Units) against the money line on Saturday games this season.
The average score was SAN JOSE 2.4, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (9) SAN JOSE vs. (10) CALGARY
Favoring: SAN JOSE on the money line.
CALGARY is 12-19 (-29.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was CALGARY 3, OPPONENT 3 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (27) VEGAS vs. (28) EDMONTON
Favoring: Over on the total.
EDMONTON is 41-14 OVER (+25.7 Units) against poor power play killing teams - opp score on >17.5% of chances this season.
The average score was EDMONTON 4.1, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (7) WINNIPEG vs. (8) LOS ANGELES
Favoring: Under on the total.
WINNIPEG is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) when playing their 8th game in 14 days this season.
The average score was WINNIPEG 2.5, OPPONENT 2.5 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (7) WINNIPEG vs. (8) LOS ANGELES
Favoring: Under on the total.
WINNIPEG is 21-4 UNDER (+16.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders this season.
The average score was WINNIPEG 2.9, OPPONENT 2.4 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (7) WINNIPEG vs. (8) LOS ANGELES
Favoring: Under on the total.
WINNIPEG is 9-0 UNDER (+9.2 Units) in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 4 or more goals this season.
The average score was WINNIPEG 1.7, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (19) VANCOUVER vs. (20) DALLAS
Favoring: Over on the total.
VANCOUVER is 17-4 OVER (+12.6 Units) after playing 2 consecutive home games this season.
The average score was VANCOUVER 4.5, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (27) VEGAS vs. (28) EDMONTON
Favoring: Over on the total.
EDMONTON is 36-12 OVER (+22.9 Units) against horrible power play killing teams-opp score on >19% of chances this season.
The average score was EDMONTON 4.1, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 4*)

After a big win Friday, the Buffalo Sabres head to Long Island to take on the New York Islanders. Buffalo has had a tough time lately and is 2-6-2 in its past 10 games, but Friday’s win was a big help

The Islanders have been hot, going 6-2-2 in their past 10, but suffered a loss in overtime to the lowly Blue Jackets on Friday night. The Islanders in crunch time and every point matters in this playoff hunt.

The Sabres are struggling, but there’s definitely no shortage of talent. Alex Tuch scored two goals Friday and Tage Thompson scored once, adding to his 40+ goal total. Behind them, Jeff Skinner is a 30-goal scorer and Dylan Cozens has scored in two straight games.

Generating a sustainable even-strength attack hasn’t been easy in March. The Sabres are 25th in expected goals with a 44.77 xGF%, but the power play is ranked fifth and scoring at a 24.6% rate.

Defensively, Buffalo hasn’t fared well this month, especially without Mattias Samuelsson. The Sabres are 30th in xGA/60 (expected goals allowed per 60 mins) at 3.18, and are second to last with a 72% penalty kill.

Buffalo’s goalie situation is tough to figure out. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen played Friday, but Saturday’s starter is still to be determined. Craig Anderson had a few maintenance days, so he may take the crease. The 41-year-old has had a good year, playing to a +1.0 goals saved above expected (GSAx) and a .908 SV%.

Mathew Barzal has been out, but everyone else has stepped up for the Islanders. Bo Horvat has been held scoreless in his past six games, but he’s formed great chemistry with captain Anders Lee. Brock Nelson has been the team’s best offensive weapon. He scored two goals Friday, bringing his total to 32.

March has been kind to New York’s offense as the Isles are sixth in expected goals with a 55.66 xGF%. However, the power play is nowhere to be found.

The Isles are back to playing defensively sound hockey. They’re third with a 2.24 xGA/60 and the penalty kill is 11th, succeeding 81.6% of the time.

Since Ilya Sorokin played Friday, I’d expect Semyon Varlamov to start. The veteran has had a decent season, but hasn’t had a great showing in his past four starts (.877 SV%). He’s also playing to a +1.8 GSAx, which is significantly lower than where he was earlier in the season.

The Sabres have been making things as hard as possible for opposing teams. They have three 30+ goal scorers (nearly five) and just beat the Devils, who are competing for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division.

However, Buffalo’s defense has suffered with the loss of Samuelsson. He may not be a guy who lights up the scoreboard, but he’s a calming presence on the back end, which the Sabres have needed for years.

With the Islanders offense clicking on all cylinders, this has the potential to get ugly. And don’t forget about Buffalo’s goaltending woes. Should Anderson play, this game may have a chance to be close, but it’s hard to say.

Both teams are coming off a game Friday night, so I’d imagine they’re tired. However, one will look for revenge in front of their home fans and one came off a satisfying home win.