let's keep rolling
GL

Sevilla at Manchester United (Tuesday, March 13 at 3:45 p.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: Man Utd -155, Sevilla +526, Draw +296

Sevilla held Manchester United 0-0 in the opening home leg, but will have plenty of work to do in the second leg at Old Trafford. Both clubs could be missing key contributors as Sevilla’s Jesus Navas (calf) is out, and Man United’s Paul Pogba (quad) is doubtful. Manchester United come into the match with confidence, winning three straight Premier League matches. Sevilla, on the other hand, have lost two La Liga matches since their Champions League draw, and just lost 2-0 at home to Valencia over the weekend.

Surprisingly, public bettors like the road team to get a result with nearly 50% of tickets taking Sevilla to win. Despite the heavy support on the Spanish side, their odds have actually increased from +466 to +526 since opening. This is a rare spot where you can fade the trendy road underdog and take a strong Manchester United team at short odds to win at home. I’ve already taken Manchester United at -140 odds, but still think there’s value on them at -155. The Red Devils will also have Marcus Rashford available in the second leg, a valuable piece of their lineup who was out for the first leg.

Shaktar Donetsk at Roma (Tuesday, March 13 at 3:45 p.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: Roma -135, Shaktar +390, Draw +315

I loved Shaktar Donetsk to beat Roma at home in the opening leg, and although they went down 1-0, they came back for a crucial 2-1 victory. For the second leg matchup, public bettors have been heavy on Roma to get a result with more than 70% of tickets on them to win at home. This is no surprise considering they need to win to have a chance to advance, and they’ve yet to concede a home goal in the Champions League this year. However, their odds have moved from -155 to -135 since opening, signaling sharper money on Shaktar Donetsk and the draw.

I don’t typically like to be on the same side as the public, and this match is no different. I’ll gladly fade the home favorite and take the draw at +315 odds, which would be enough to see Shaktar advance to the quarterfinals.

SOC - [201459] Pescara Calcio DRAW +226

glta

Bayern Munich at Besiktas (Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: Bayern -165, Besiktas +450, Draw +355

Bayern Munich rolled 5-0 at home over Besiktas to put this matchup out of reach. I’m not sure how much motivation Bayern will be playing with, and bettors seem to be skeptical as well — their odds have dropped from -185 to -165 since opening. Even if Besiktas shock the Germans at home with a win, it won’t be enough to get them into the quarterfinals. Despite some reverse-line movement on Besiktas, I don’t feel good enough to place a wager on them, so I’ll be passing on this match entirely.

Chelsea at Barcelona (Wednesday at 3:45 p.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: Barcelona -256, Chelsea +671, Draw +392

Chelsea actually played a really solid opening leg at home but only managed a 1-1 draw, which likely isn’t going to be enough to move on to the quarterfinals.

In the second leg in Spain, I like Barcelona to win at -256, as they’re getting just 33% of tickets compared to nearly 50% on Chelsea to win. Barcelona’s Leo Messi is “rested” after sitting out this weekend’s La Liga match as his wife gave birth to their third child. He finally scored against Chelsea in the opening leg, snapping a career-long goalless skid against the West London club, and I expect him to find the score sheet again in the second leg. All the pressure will be on Chelsea on the road, and an early Barcelona goal could doom them.