WHAT VEGAS SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT SUNDAY'S SUPER BOWL

It's been just a shade under two weeks since the Super Bowl lines went up. Because the public doesn't usually bet until Super Bowl weekend (when they come to Las Vegas or Reno to party!), the action we've seen so far on the boards represent sharp action (money from professional wagerers).

The indications are very clear. What I'm about to describe may be a bit confusing to some of you. It's important to remember in a game like this that there is not complete agreement. It's not like ALL Wise Guys like one team, and ALL Wise Guys think the same way about the total. There are different opinions, but sharps always find a way to give themselves the best number.

In short:

* Sharps who like Green Bay have bet the Packers at -2.5. That line has been available for a long time. They don't expect to see -2 or better (though there are some stragglers who may be waiting for the deuce).
* Sharps who like Pittsburgh have bet the Steelers +3. That number comes and goes, and sharps jump in when they see it.
* There are more sharps in my view who like Pittsburgh rather than Green Bay. They're impressed with Pittsburgh's defense. They're impressed with Ben Roethlisberger's big game toughness. They think experience matters in the postseason, and this is the third recent Super Bowl visit for the Steelers. They'd also rather have the AFC champion than the NFC champion.
* Sharps AREN'T betting Pittsburgh on the moneyline much because they don't consider it a fair return. Historically, pointspreads are stacked against favorites (though not so much here) and moneylines are stacked against underdogs because squares (the public) like betting on upsets (especially if they're a big fan of that team). Sharps who like Pittsburgh are taking the points.
* Sharps who like the Over have bet Over 44.
* Sharps who like the Under bet Under 46 when it was available right after the lines went up. There was initial interest in the Over, but then Under bettors who love these defenses stepped in aggressively at that time.
* My take is that a lot more sharps like the Under than the Over. There are "history" guys who just bet Overs in the Super Bowl in general because that was a sound strategy for so long. My discussions with the pure handicappers suggest they like the Under, and they think the bad weather in Dallas during preparation week may help that because it's been such a distraction.

So, in a way, the sharps like the Packers, and the Steelers, and the Over, and the Under! Depends on who you're talking to, and the line you're seeing. The important thing for YOU to remember is that sharps always give themselves the best of it on the line. You should be aiming to do that with your personal legal betting. That's true in the Super Bowl or any other game.

GOOD LUCK DEN!!!!.

Thx Dwight.

Nice read

bump

"So, in a way, the sharps like the Packers, and the Steelers, and the Over, and the Under! "

LOL.....they have no idea either.

is that Sharps are definitely going UNDER and then taking whatever points the public gives on the dog. Pittsburgh has a good formula, running to set up the pass, but I say the Packers have too much firepower for Pittsburgh to contend with, and a defense that can limit what Pittsburgh does offensively,so I will be on the Packers come Sunday, even if the line were to move all the way to 4.
Good luck to all, its been a strange and wonderful season.