I'm going to throw this out there to see if anyone has any thoughts on this or sees any way to improve it....It's just a theory right now, but I like the logic.

avg margin of victory
I'm looking at using the amov for the last five home games and road game as compared to the lines.
For last night

Tor AMOV/Road -3.4
Wash AMOV/Home 11.4
Diff 14.8 or 15 rounded
Line 7.5
15-7.5=7.5
Nice diference
Wash covered

NO AMOV/Road -4.8
MEM AMOVE/Home 11.2
Diff 16
Line 8.5
16-8.5=7.5
Nice Difference
MEM covered

Port AMOV/Road -13
Pho AMOVE/Home 12
Diff 25
Line 13.5
25-13.5=11.5
Pho Covered

Now When the line differnce isn't very high then the Dog covered
(Dont want to type all day, just trust what I'm doing based on same formula as above)

Dall 5.4
Indi 10.2
diff 5
Line 3.5
5-3.5=1.5 No Cover

LAL -6.4
Mil 5
Diff 11
Line 5
Diff 6=No cover

ATL -8.6
Den 2.4
Diff 11
Line 12.5
Diff -1.5=No cover

NY -9.6
Sea 2
Diff 12
Line 5.5
Diff 6.5 No Cover

Heres what I'm thinking
When the line diff is 7 or higher play on the FAV, when it's 6.5 or Lower no play, or play the Dog. That sounds like a good cut off line.

Also look at Den, Sea, and Sac (AMOV/Home 2). Teams with very low AMOV at home don't cover well.
Also looking at the following
When both teams have pos numbers then play the road team
When both teams have neg numbers then play the road team

Didn't post anything with Boston/Hou as having T-MAC back changes everything.
Clev/Sac had clev -6, sac 2 diff of 8. They were the only road fav last night so I need to see more examples to get any ideas with Road Favs and how the line factors in. But they still have a low AMOV at home.

Any Idea or filters please post.

Based on this theory here's what I have
NO -1.4
Bost -11
Diff 9.6
Line 2.5
Diff 7.1-so play on NO
Or When both teams are neg, play on the road team. Not sure yet. I will work on a filter for this situation. Maybe the filter is a noplay

SA 4
MIA 3.6---Value would be MIA IMO as both teams are positve and the line is 8.5 (Too big to justify how both teams are playing)

Phil 10
Mil -8.6
18.6
Line 6.5
Diff 12.1
Play on Phili

Pho 6
GS 6.4-----Value would be on Pho as both are positive

ATL -8.6
Ut -5.2
Diff 3.4
Line 9 for Ut
The diff should be higher than the line, not lower. Saw this with ATL/Den last night.
IMO Value is on ATL, as the math doesn't support Ut and both teams are neg.

LAL .2
Tor -5.2
Diff 5.4
Line 2.5 lakers
Diff 3
Not to sure what to do here either. If one team is playing well enough to be pos on the road and the other is neg at home, my instinct would be to play the road team....Maybe the math should diff in this situation as compared to home team being + and road team being Neg.

Char 9
NJ -1.6
Diff 11
Line 2 NJ
Play on Char and my guess is they should be favored.

Chi 2.2----Road team is +, home is Neg. Play the road team.
Orl -.4

NY/LAC
MIN/PORT
dont fall into any catagory as the line diff isn't above 7.
I guess you could fade both favs.


This is all theory still. Just wanted to post as much as I could and see where the chips fall. Looks like it could be solid.

I think this theory will bring out mostly fav plays. Need to check on this theory when a night with more dogs covered.

you might be right....
If I could use it all year long and get 60%, I'd be happy. It's simple math and provides for a lot of plays.
I like the NBA -20 system, but one play a night (or none) just doesn't get it done.

One thing this does is take into account how a team is playing recently. That's important. I'm not sure if it will be just behind the curve.