Auburn – OVER 7.5 wins

Auburn was improved in 2023 in the first season under Hugh Freeze. That team was far less experienced than the one he is bringing back for year two. Does that ensure success in the SEC? Of course not. However, looking back at Freeze’s second season at Liberty, his team went from 8-5 to 10-1, improving by about 8.0 PPG on each side of the ball. I could see improvements on both sides of the ball this year for the Tigers, especially on offense, where QB Payton Thorne will have a full season with Freeze under his belt. In addition, Auburn qualifies for a transitional system, showing there have been 71 teams over the last 11 seasons that have endured losing seasons despite outscoring their opponents. Of those, 31 brought back 13 or more starters, including their quarterback. The collective improvement of this group of teams was about 15.7% SU or approximately two games. That would put this team at eight wins.

Colorado – OVER 5.5 wins

The pressure surrounding Colorado’s football program last year was immense following the hiring of Head Coach Deion Sanders. While much of that hype has settled now to a manageable point, there are some extreme positives that have come out of the change. First off, the last two years on the recruiting/transfer trail have been unlike anything the program has experienced in recent years. There were some big wins to start the season last year as well. Now for 2024, Coach Prime brings back most of his key pieces and will be back in the Big 12 where his program belongs. The Buffaloes will also benefit from a system showing that close losses can be a galvanizing factor for teams that stay the course. In fact, of the 32 teams over the last 11 seasons that suffered 5+ close losses of 7 points or less and brought back their head coach and at least half of their starters (11+), only two finished worse the next season. The average win improvement was 2.6 per season. That would put Colorado at 6.6 wins, a modest number if you ask me for a team this explosive offensively.

Florida – OVER 4.5 wins

I mentioned Hugh Freeze and his team’s improvement in the second season with Liberty when describing higher hopes for Auburn this fall. A very similar situation is in play for Billy Napier and Florida in 2024. Only this projection could be even brighter. Napier took Louisiana from 7-7 to 11-3, then 10-1 and 13-1. He did this by recruiting at a higher standard. Well, Florida just landed its most highly rated recruiting class in over a decade, the #7 national ranking, made up of a mix of recruits and transfers. This is exactly the momentum the Gators need to become relevant again in the SEC. The Gators also bring back 14 starters from last year’s 5-7 team, one which lost three times by single-digit margins. There have been 92 teams over the last 11 seasons that have lost one or fewer games by 20 points or more in a given season but still finished with a losing record. Of the 62 that brought back 13 or more starters the next season, only 11 finished worse the next season. The average win improvement of this group was 2.5 per season. Florida qualifies for this angle. I have a hard time believing the Gators will be worse than last year, and if not, they go over the total, despite the tough schedule.