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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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It's a heavyweight clash in the Euro final as Spain takes on England.
Spain came from behind to beat France 2-1 and secure a spot here to potentially win their fourth Euro title all time. It's been an impressive tournament so far for Luis de la Fuente's team who has taken down two of the tournament favorites on their way to the final. They have showed resiliency, but also some vulnerabilities in their defense, which could be exploited by England.
England is back in the Euro final and football may finally be coming home. Gareth Southgate's side has largely been poor throughout this tournament, but have the opportunity to win their first major international trophy since the 1966 World Cup. Ollie Watkins was the late hero against the Netherlands to snatch a 2-1 victory, which shows the depth and talent that England has.
That is now two straight matches where Spain has taken a lead, sat back trying to defend and hasn’t done a great job. Against Germany, they conceded 2.1 expected goals and 45 penalty box touches. Against France, they conceded 1.5 expected goals and 29 penalty box touches. If it wasn’t for a Lamine Yamal wonderstrike from outside the box, the match against France could have gone very differently. In the end, even though they scored twice, they only created 0.7 expected goals and had just 10 touches in France’s penalty area.
It’s pretty clear now that Spain isn’t an elite defensive team playing in a passive defensive block. They have conceded three goals this tournament off of 6.2 expected as Unai Simon has run incredibly hot in net. Spain is due for some regression defensively and if they continue to sit and not press intensely, it’s only going to make them more and more vulnerable.
They may very well control a majority of the possession in this match, but Southgate has set England up really well defensively. They showed the Dutch just how difficult they are to play through.
The key for England is to not let Rodri receive the ball with ease and allow him to pick out whatever pass he wants. Whoever England plays alongside Declan Rice or Jude Bellingham has to be able to press Rodri every single time he receives the ball and make someone else from Spain beat you.
What was encouraging about England against Netherlands, at least in the first half, was their commitment to playing through the middle of the pitch. Kieran Trippier would often push high up the pitch, which allowed Phil Foden to play more of a central role with Bellingham operating in the left half space.
England was often trying to get four or five guys in the middle of the pitch. Even when they weren’t able to play through the middle, it did leave Bukayo Saka isolated out wide. When the double team came, he was able to find the open man, which often times was Foden, who had his best match of the tournament.
The key for England in this match is going to be how solid and compact they are when defending in their own final third. Spain has been overloading the middle a lot to isolate Nico Williams and Yamal out wide. Kyle Walker can shut down Wiliams, but Marc Guehi and Rice are going to have to provide help on Yamal. England is well set up to do this though as they haven’t allowed anybody in regular time to create over one expected goal against them. Their defensive set up against the Netherlands to stop their ball progression was outstanding in the first half, as they forced them into a lot of long balls, which they won at a high rate.
England's defense has been outstanding this entire tournament. They're very well versed in playing a mid-to-low defensive structure to deny Spain passing lanes or preventing them from carrying the ball into the box. Throughout this tournament they have only allowed 0.79 npxG per 90 minutes, which is third lowest in the competition along with the fifth fewest penalty box touches.
Spain is most likely to control a majority of the possession in this match, but we have now seen them go up against two elite defensive sides. In regular time, they weren't able to create two combined expected goals in those two matches. Southgate, for all of the criticism he's received this tournament, has set England up really well defensively.
Even though England hasn't been great offensively throughout this tournament, they possess the attacking talent and press-resistant players to give Spain's defense a lot of problems.
We've seen the problems with Spain's passive defensive structure. If they sit back, England should be able to create a couple high quality chances — and if they press, England has the capability to play right through them.
Everyone is going to be flocking to Spain because of recency bias, but England played their best match of the tournament against the Netherlands and I think are undervalued here against Spain.
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07-14-24 01:34 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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England vs. Spain
Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET
England were favorites in the futures market before a ball was kicked in Germany. They have been at the head of the betting (albeit uneasily) for much of the tournament. Now heading into the final, Spain have taken that honor and are +148 to win the match and -155 to lift the trophy, with England +250 and +120. However, the tie priced at +185 skews this market and makes England a serious value play.
If this was the opening match of the tournament, the odds would be reversed. But is it right to base our thoughts on what has happened over the last four weeks rather than zoom out and look at the bigger picture? I don’t think so.
Yes, England have been underwhelming throughout the competition, but they have been getting better. They are playing a new system, arguably stumbled upon by chance but it is working. I have always said if you can’t be good, be lucky!
These England players have been through some tough times over their last six games, but here they are in the final with a chance to write history. They will use those dark days to inspire them here as they have done in the last couple of rounds. There just seems to be something special, something strange working in their favor. Destiny perhaps.
Spain is, without a doubt, a deserved favorite. They have played the best soccer, scored the most goals, and won all six of their fixtures, only needing extra time once. Have they peaked too soon, and could they be complacent? England certainly has a few more gears to slip into yet.
Two huge factors swaying me towards England here are the massive support they will have and the priceless experience within the squad. Being here in Germany, I have seen that England supporters have been outnumbered at every game.
The Dutch support was incredible, and the Swiss were the same. Trust me, Berlin will be packed full of English support this weekend, and the Olympiastadion will become Wembley for the day.
All the headlines have been about the incredible young talent Spain has in their ranks, which is true. But the one thing those kids don’t have is big-game experience. Most of this England squad have played in a World Cup semifinal and can draw on the lessons learned from being in the last European Championship final. There are also plenty in the squad that have won the biggest trophies for their clubs.
As this new system settles in, Gareth Southgate is gaining more confidence to have a go, and he will have to get his team to do just that. Allowing Spain too much ball and giving them too much respect is a recipe for disaster, and he knows that.
This side, like the majority before them, are better when their backs are to the wall. It’s at that point they come out and play. We have seen that more than once this tournament. Southgate also knows when he throws his substitutes on, they are performing for him.
So not only does that make me confident of an England win, it also makes me firmly believe we are in for an entertaining final. That goes against the trend of European Championship finals over the years, but Spain only knows one way to play, and England will be forced to follow suit.
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07-14-24 06:44 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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Both Teams to Score -106
I have always been an Unders bettor, and I have done well this tournament with that strategy. But I think the goals line is set too low here. That may shock many of you who probably expected to be reading about another Under goals play from me.
If you think a line is off, in this case Under 2.5 goals at -200, it brings the connected markets into play, as they are usually value. That is why I think Both Teams to Score at -106 is the bet.
Everyone has been talking about how bad England’s games have been and that they lack goals. The facts are both teams to score has cashed in four of their six matches so far, including each of the last three, with the Three Lions only failing to score in one of those—the 0-0 draw with Slovenia.
An early Spain goal opens this up, and I can see that happening. England have gone behind in all of their knockout games. Despite not allowing a goal in any of their three group games, Spain have conceded in their three knockout fixtures, with Both Teams to Score cashing in each game.
The do-or-die nature of knockout soccer makes this bet a really strong play. It comes down to score or go home. Six of the last seven games at Euro 2024 have seen both teams score. This fixture can add to that list, as was the case in the last final, when England drew 1-1 with Italy, with the opening goal coming after just two minutes.
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07-14-24 06:44 PM |
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