Sebatian Korda vs. Tallon Griekspoor – Hertogenbosch

Griekspoor is a very dangerous player in quicker conditions, as he has a big serve and a no-nonsense baseline game. He’s going to look to quickly win points, whether that’s swinging big from either wing or coming to the net to put rallies to bed. However, Korda has looked as good as anyone in s’-Hertogenbosch this week. I have been riding the American throughout the course of the tournament, and his 6-4, 6-2 win over Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals was one of the most impressive performances of his career. Realistically, when Korda is in good form, he’s a top-10 player in the world. And overall, I think he has a little too much game for Griekspoor.

Breaks should come few and far between in this match, with both players capable of racking up easy holds in these fast conditions. But when we get to the business end of things, Korda’s edge from the baseline should allow him to advance to the final. For what it’s worth, Korda beat Griekspoor in a three-set match in Astana last year, winning that one in an indoor hard-court battle. Those conditions were definitely different than what we’ll see here, but they were also quicker ones. That bodes well for Korda, who is probably sharpest on this surface.

Bet: Korda ML (-140- 1.5 units)

Karolina Pliskova vs. Ons Jabeur – Nottingham
Matteo Berrettini vs. Lorenzo Musetti – Stuttgart

Jabeur is a tremendous grass-court player, which is why she made the final of Wimbledon last year. However, I like the idea of taking Pliskova to cover a 5.5-game spread as the first leg of a +102 parlay. There’s no denying that Pliskova’s best days are behind her, and the former world No. 1 can occasionally look like she’s stuck in the mud when moving around the court. But she still has the ability to blast serves, and that should be enough for her to stay close here. Pliskova is actually 2-1 against Jabeur in her career, and they have never played a match in which the Tunisian ran away with a win. So, I feel pretty good about this play getting home.

The second leg of the parlay calls for Berrettini to beat fellow countryman Musetti. I had Musetti to win a set against Alexander Bublik, and I generally think he’s a better grass-court player than he is given credit for. Honestly, he’s a tremendous talent and is dangerous anywhere he plays. But Berrettini looks to be in good form right now, and this is a guy that was a Wimbledon runner-up in 2021. Berrettini’s booming serve and ability to rip forehands makes him a great match for the grass, and he’s also comfortable coming to the net. This might not be a straightforward match, but I ultimately trust him to get the job done. Let’s hope he stays healthy over the next couple of weeks, as he has serious sleeper appeal heading into the third major of the year.

PARLAY: Pliskova +5.5 Games + Berrettini ML (+102 – 1.5 units)

Early morning winner!