a couple to look at today
GL

8:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros (-170, 9)

The Guardians (19-9) just dropped two of three against the Braves, losing Sunday’s series finale 4-3 in extra innings as +135 road dogs. On the flip side, the Astros (9-19) just swept a two-game series against the Rockies, winning the series finale 8-2 as -250 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, Cleveland starts righty Carlos Carrasco (1-2, 4.63 ERA) and Houston sends out fellow righty Hunter Brown (0-4, 9.68 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a -140 home favorite and the Guardians a +120 road dog. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the plus money with Cleveland, who has the far better won-loss record. However, despite 67% of moneyline bets backing the Guardians, we’ve seen this line skyrocket toward the Astros -140 to -170. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Houston, with pros laying the chalk with the unpopular home favorite. The Astros have the better bats (hitting .264 vs .250). When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite is 460-280 (62%) with a 3% ROI since 2020. Houston also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win.

Thanks Mike for the post- it was a wild game in Houston
Keep up the great work and again
Thank You

Stuff! Thanks for your continued contributions.